I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:33 pm Post subject: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
I barely saw the response to my previous post in time to click the link to http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35082.html and see what was sent. Why would the mods delete a post that's on topic? If I'd checked back a few minutes later I would have no clue what even happened to my post or that the topic had even already been looked at.
Administrative silliness aside....
I looked over the graphs at that page but its mostly gobbledy-gook for a simpleton (read: non phD math student) like me.
The simple question is WHY would anyone presuppose that production will peak when half the reserves have been depleted? I can see no logical reason for this relationship! Yet it seems to be the basis of the bell curve - if the area under the peak has to be equal on both sides, there isn't much room for deviance in how that right hand side will look.
The "plateau" concept only works if we can say that there will be more - significantly more oil produced after the peak in production than prior to it.
Maybe we consume 1 trillion barrels when oil production peaks around 85 million a day... if there are only 1 trillion left the decline will be fairly steep... but what if there were 5 trillion left? You could sustain 85 million or close to it for a VERY long period of time, and the lifestyle adjustments required by people would be modest and gradual (no mad max coming here).
On the other hand if you're going to fall from 85 million/day to 1 million/day in 20 years, this is going to be harsh and probably catastrophic.
So to sum (please don't keep deleting my questions, I would really like to get clarity on this):
1. Difference between a bell curve and a plateau is immense in terms of the amount of time to adjust to less available oil, and the measures necessary to adapt.
2. The only way the post-peak could be a plateau is if there are significantly more reserves produced after the peak than before it. That is, the peak in production does NOT coincide with the production of 50% of all available oil.
Do we have any reason to believe that peak production does coincide with half of all oil being produced (or consumed, whichever is the right term)? If we don't, does that mean that the bell curve theory is disproven (or at least a significant uncertainty no more probable than a plateau)?
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
Your post was not deleted. It was moved to the proper forum. Which is the Depletion Modeling forum.
Use the "view your posts" link (on the main forum page) to find posts that have been moved. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
Veritas wrote:
I barely saw the response to my previous post in time to click the link to http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35082.html and see what was sent. Why would the mods delete a post that's on topic? If I'd checked back a few minutes later I would have no clue what even happened to my post or that the topic had even already been looked at.
It will have been merged with an existing topic or moved to another subforum. Search your posts to find where it is now.
Veritas wrote:
I looked over the graphs at that page but its mostly gobbledy-gook for a simpleton (read: non phD math student) like me.
It's high school stuff to be honest, or was. It needs a longer explanation to put it in context. There are many old ones around here.
Veritas wrote:
The simple question is WHY would anyone presuppose that production will peak when half the reserves have been depleted? I can see no logical reason for this relationship! Yet it seems to be the basis of the bell curve - if the area under the peak has to be equal on both sides, there isn't much room for deviance in how that right hand side will look.
It is what is observed in nature. Actually, it does not have to be exactly 50%. In practice it can be 40% or 60% just as easily. But because so much oil is used during the interval around peak (bounded area under curve), shifting it one way or another by seemingly large numbers shifts the peak date by only a few years.
Veritas wrote:
The "plateau" concept only works if we can say that there will be more - significantly more oil produced after the peak in production than prior to it.
Well that is the problem. The discovery trend (peaked in mid-60s, ceased to replace consumption in 1981), inadequate now even taking unbackdated reserve growth into account, points the way to Ultimate being a lot less than many trillions of barrels. We are definitely looking at two, two-and-a-half, unless the discovery trend reverses.
Veritas wrote:
I would really like to get clarity on this):
1. Difference between a bell curve and a plateau is immense in terms of the amount of time to adjust to less available oil, and the measures necessary to adapt.
2. The only way the post-peak could be a plateau is if there are significantly more reserves produced after the peak than before it. That is, the peak in production does NOT coincide with the production of 50% of all available oil.
Do we have any reason to believe that peak production does coincide with half of all oil being produced (or consumed, whichever is the right term)? If we don't, does that mean that the bell curve theory is disproven (or at least a significant uncertainty no more probable than a plateau)?
The production bell curve mirrors the discovery bell curve with a time lag. And that is already history. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3855 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
Veritas wrote:
I barely saw the response to my previous post in time to click the link to http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35082.html and see what was sent. Why would the mods delete a post that's on topic? If I'd checked back a few minutes later I would have no clue what even happened to my post or that the topic had even already been looked at.
Administrative silliness aside....
and
Quote:
So to sum (please don't keep deleting my questions, I would really like to get clarity on this):
Please remember this portion of the COC: "Please do not publicly accuse the moderators or administrators of bias, complain about moderation decisions, or post correspondence you receive from moderators and administrators. If you have an issue regarding moderation that needs to be addressed, please contact any moderator or website administrator by sending a private message or e-mail." ANY moderator will be happy to help.
Messages or portions of posts that have been deleted, will have a note posted as to why and by whom the deletion was made. And, if a post was moved, there will be a note, "Moved," on the thread title on the forum index.
Additionally, Leanan is quite right. The "view your posts" options is Very helpful when you need to find a specific post!
Oh, and Please use the hyperlink function when posting a URL link. It can be found in the thread, "How to find your way around this site...," or, drop me a PM and I will be happy to forward the instructions to you. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
I used the search bar at the top of the page searching for title of the thread, the engine found it and then when I clicked link said post no longer exists :S
I don't even see the "view your posts" link anywhere on my screen right now
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So it isn't self evident where this option is - sorry!
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: Depletion - other post got deleted??? :(
Look on this page:
http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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