I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
I was flipping back and forth between the polar sea ice graphs when something leaped out at me like a sore thumb.
Right now, at this moment in time, we are 2.5 Mkm^2 below the long term average sea ice globally. People tend to focus on whichever pole happens to be in it melting phase because everyone seems to be placing mental bets on when it will all be gone.
Well guess what, we are in a sustained sea ice defecit globally right now at this minute, and contrary to what you may expect Antarctic melting this time of year usually outpaces Arctic freezing. This means that unless the Arctic starts freezing really fast compared to average, or Antarctica melts considerably slower than averaga the GLOBAL sea ice level will fall this winter instead of rising.
Last year between Oct 1 and Feb 21 the Antarctic lots 13.8 Mkm^2 of sea ice. Last year the Arctic gained about 10.5 Mkm^2 in the same period. The net loss therefore was 3.3 Mkm^2 over the 5 months of October-February. This is unprecedented in the record from 1979-2008, normally globally sea ice is building this time of year and the global peak hits in late November when the Antarctic has only begun melt while the Arctic is freezing rapidly.
Check the global graph for yourself HERE. Scroll all the way to the right end _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
Essex - let me break this down for you in a way I know you can understand.
You are a human being.
A human being will die within about 4 days if it goes without water...
About 14 days if you go without food.
You can talk about 4.54 billion years until you are blue in the face, but the fact remains, that you won't even exist for .00001% of that amount of time.
In our industrialized society, you will live about 54 years. 62 if you are female. 70+ if you are of asian descent. 80+ if you also follow the lifestyle of a monk. Average.
If the average temperature of one climate zone in the world changes by 5 degrees, the food chain will be disrupted. It will take millions of years to re-adjust.
Extincctions favor smaller, more simple organisms. You are not one of these. A 5 degree change in global climate means, quite simply, you will die.
You can spout "it's all in the normal climate deviation" as much as you want. It doesn't matter. You'll still die.
You can argue that humans didn't cause it until you're blue in the face. You'll still die. If you don't because if it, your children will. Two kids? Three? If they don't starve because of it, their children will. Is that four, or six of your grandchildren? Your friends? Nine? Who knows.
You can either try to fix it, or deny it. It's your choice, but like it or not, people will suffer and die from it. In fact, people are already suffering and dying from it. People in Africa. People in Asia. How much of their suffering will you accept in exchange for denying it's happening? Ten percent? Twenty?
Your dening their suffering is why it is allowed to occur. Wake up child! Just because it isn't you and yours, or because you can't see it in front of you, doesn't mean it isn't happening. All it means is that your world view is too small to accept the reality.
If you think that spewing 30 times the backround levels of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere isn't changing it, you're either a fool, or a liar.
Read. Think.
essex wrote:
"the long term average "
Well a long term average over a whopping 29 years is hardly convincing, the earth is 4.54 billion years old. with repeated warming and cooling cycles.
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:58 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
jbrovont wrote:
Read. Think.
... and post long screeds on the Internet.
Let's not pretend that you're doing anything more about the problem than the person you're criticizing. Reading, thinking and posturing on the Internet don't constitute *doing something*.
And even if you do act, it will have no effect. Here's the sad truth from the high-ranking climate kahunas:
Quote:
In fact, the world's leading scientists agree that it's already too late to halt global warming entirely. "We can't prevent some damage," says Stephen Schneider, co-director of the Center for Environmental Science and Policy at Stanford University. Even if we were to magically end CO2 emissions tomorrow, the gases that we've already unleashed will continue to raise temperatures for another 150 years. "That's unpreventable," Schneider says.
Kyoto matters little for the climate. Even if all countries had ratified it (the United States and Australia did not), and all countries lived up to their commitments (which many will have a hard time doing) and stuck to them throughout the 21st century (which would get ever harder), the change would have been miniscule. The temperature by 2050 would be an immeasurable 0.1°F lower and even by 2100 only 0.3°F lower. This means that the expected temperature increase of 4.7°F would be postponed just five years, from 2100 to 2105. (Source: Cool It by Bjorn Lomborg P. 22, citing Wigley, T.M.L. (1998). The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and Climate Implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(13), 2285-2288.)
The solution to global warming is geoengineering, not holier-than-thou posturing. Crutzen, Wigley, Caldeira and other top climate scientists have begun to accept that. Watch the video. We can engineer as much sea ice as we need at very low cost. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3879 Location: over here
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:44 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
geoengineering, right. Great science fiction. This must be the ultimate cornucopian wet dream. It's beyond ridiculous; it's the scientist in a bubble belief we can fix everything and we have all the means to do so taken to the extreme.
Still I guess there's no harm in thinking about it and hey, maybe in the far future it might actually result in some applications that help the climate stabilize on the long term. But right now we have what looks like will turn into a rapidly deteriorating/destabilized system very soon.
I'd have to agree with you that (much more than, actually) "some" CC is unavoidable, and the real time to start to act was 25 years ago but we were never going to do that...
Tanada, it looks like the Arctic has started to refreeze right on schedule (more so than last year) and usually around this time it refreezes faster than the antarctic sea-ice melts, so personally I'd expect the global sea ice to go up in the coming month or two. I don't know about the anomoly though, it might or might not hit record lows. I don't know how strong the negative impact of the el nino conditions will be on the formation/melt, I'm afraid though that next year could be the "tipping" year. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 6:53 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
Bas wrote:
geoengineering, right. Great science fiction. This must be the ultimate cornucopian wet dream. It's beyond ridiculous; it's the scientist in a bubble belief we can fix everything and we have all the means to do so taken to the extreme.
Still I guess there's no harm in thinking about it and hey, maybe in the far future it might actually result in some applications that help the climate stabilize on the long term.
You're poorly informed. Geoengineering is a not a futuristic technology. It's a relatively simple technology which basically involves high-altitude planes dispersing sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere. Resistance to the idea is rapidly dwindling because carbon emissions have actually been *accelerating* since the Kyoto Treaty was signed, and outpacing the worst case scenario (A1FI) of the IPCC Source.
As I noted above, even a total halt in carbon emissions tomorrow (talk about a wet dream) will not reduce the temperature. The temperature will still continue to rise for 100+ years. Geoengineering, on the other hand, can actually reduce temperatures, very quickly, and the costs are relatively low -- orders of magnitude less than the alternative:
Quote:
Time and Cost Advantages to Geoengineering. Alan Carlin, a senior economist with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has argued that geoengineering is "our best hope of coping with a changing world," because it can work, it can be implemented relatively quickly and (perhaps most importantly) it is affordable.
While the cost of reducing greenhouse gases enough to stave off serious harm has been estimated at 2 percent to 5 percent of gross domestic product, Stanford University climate scientist Ken Caldiera projects the cost of putting reflective aerosols into the atmosphere at one-thousandth of the low estimate of 2 percent. Johns Hopkins University Professor Scott Barrett has argued that geoengineering solutions would cost 0.5 percent to 0.05 percent as much as mandatory stringent emission reductions, while preventing more damage.
The technology is so basic, and the costs are so low (a few billion/year) that some are concerned about wealthy individuals tampering with the climate.Source
Quote:
But right now we have what looks like will turn into a rapidly deteriorating/destabilized system very soon.
That's why geoengineering has become such a hot topic in the last year or so. It's the only approach that has a chance of dealing with such a situation. The Kyoto Treaty, carbon trading and even a total halt in carbon emissions tomorrow are empty/futile gestures that aren't going to be effective. Climate scientists themselves frankly admit that, as I pointed out above. You need to pull your head out of the sand. You don't seem to fully appreciate the potential danger. _________________ Think outside the petri dish.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3879 Location: over here
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
I highly doubt something meaningful could be achieved for a few billion a year, in fact I'm sure it's impossible. If you however did something on a scale that would matter (like putting reflective earosols into the atmosphere) you might indeed have an effect on the climate, but maybe not the effect you're after. Indeed you might cause droughts where you don't want them more than anything else, and for billions upon billions you'd want to be sure that the side-effects don't eclips the intended effect. Which is why I don't see this going anywhere and like I said, I think it's even too late for that as we might be at a tipping point within the next few years. Don't seem to fully appreciate the potential danger? gimme a break. Empty gestures? I'm still wet from cycling through the rain 15 minutes ago....However for you, twisting words and meaning is still a hobby it seems, why don't you run along and go work for one of the campaigns of either presidential candidate as such filthy "skills" seem to be appreciated in those parts. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
"John Denver" the denialist troll chirping about what others are doing to fix the problem. It is scum like you that are sowing FUD to prevent any action on the problem. That's some pathological hypocrisy there.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
I saved the graph to my PC and blew it up to 300% normal size, then looked closely. From the way the light grey graph markings are distributed I conclude that there are time marks every mid month. Based on that conclusion the trends are for global sea ice to peak around November 7th and be at the minimum around mid March because so much more ice in Antarctica melts than in the Arctic that it drives the global mean.
The secondary peak shows up around the first week of July. This year the secondary annual bottom was the third week of August and has not recovered much since the fourth week of August until today. By the second week of November the Antarctic melt dominates through March of next year, so basically there are five weeks for global ice levels to recover 4.5 Mkm^2 from where they are today before melting dominates. Arctic freeze would have to be fast and massive and antarctic thaw nearly absemt for that to happen.
As for global geo-engineering I am 100% oppossed. We do not know enough to plan what actions to take to cause the results we want, and no matter what course of action we decide to persue some area's will benefit at the expense of others, leading to increased disenchantment and tension between countries. There are enough nuclear weapon states now that no matter what artificial changes that would be induced, or assumed to have been induced, some nuclear weapon state will be on the bad end of the results.
THIS IS NOT A GOOD IDEA! _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
JohnDenver wrote:
Geoengineering is a not a futuristic technology. It's a relatively simple technology which basically involves high-altitude planes dispersing sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere.
I remain very bearish on yet one more technology that will save us all and cause no further disturbance whatsoever. TBD. _________________ 9/29/08, cube, The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
VMarcHart wrote:
JohnDenver wrote:
Geoengineering is a not a futuristic technology. It's a relatively simple technology which basically involves high-altitude planes dispersing sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere.
I remain very bearish on yet one more technology that will save us all and cause no further disturbance whatsoever. TBD.
+1
We are not talking about a recipe for making ice cream, we are talking about enginerring hundreds of variables with unknown values. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
Yeah, no possible unintended consequences here, right?!!
And don't forget that, since they rapidly fall out of the air, if you choose the aerosol route, you (we) will have to keep putting them in the upper atmosphere every six months or so essentially forever.
The fact that some prominent scientists are even considering such a scheme is a clear indication of their level of desperation.
The moral hazard here would of course be tremendous:
"Oh, we don't have to make any hard decisions about GHG reduction. Those clever scientists are going to charm the climate with their magical technology and everything will be just fine."
I'm sure coal and oil companies are salivating at the prospect of just such a public response to these schemes.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
Bas wrote:
Tanada, it looks like the Arctic has started to refreeze right on schedule (more so than last year) and usually around this time it refreezes faster than the antarctic sea-ice melts, so personally I'd expect the global sea ice to go up in the coming month or two. I don't know about the anomoly though, it might or might not hit record lows. I don't know how strong the negative impact of the el nino conditions will be on the formation/melt, I'm afraid though that next year could be the "tipping" year.
You are correct when you say that Arctic freezing normally dominates for the month of October, hence the second peak in each year of the graph. So far at the end of September the ratio was 3:2, 750,000 froze in the Arctic while 500,000 thawed in the Antarctic. It seems as though the graphs on the Cryosphere page are updated weekly and as tomorrow is the last day of the first week of October I expect the graphs to be updated either tomorrow or Wednesday.
In '05, '06 & '07 the Antarctic melt went all the way down below 2 Mkm^2 of sea ice despite starting off 15.5 and 16 all three years. This year the melt is starting from 15 even which makes it possible the multi-year Antarctic ice will be 1.5 Mkm^2 or less come February. As always, time will tell The lowest Antarctic sea ice has gotten since 1978 is 1.2 Mkm^2, I would find it interesting if we break that record in February 2009. Not a dang thing I can do about it either way so I might as well enjoy the show Earth has in store for us. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 5:28 am Post subject: Re: Record Sea Ice Loss Globally
June through September 2007 brought record sea ice melt in the Arctic, well below the previous record low, set in September 2005. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), on September 16, 2007, sea ice extent dropped to 4.13 million square kilometers (1.59 million square miles) -- 38 percent below average and 24 percent below the 2005 record.
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