Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

Graeme · Last edited by Graeme on Sun Nov 02, 2008 6:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

RSFB · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 03, 2008 Posts: 284

Cloud9 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1159

Jubak said in his column on MSN; "A new report from the International Energy Agency says outputs from currently producing oil fields is falling 9.1% a year."

Looks like oil has peaked to me.

RdSnt

Let's see that chart superimposed over petroleum use and production.
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vtsnowedin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 11, 2008 Posts: 509

Right now I'm working on how to spend my Obama /Pelosie tax cut. I'll get back to peak oil soon enough.
Whats the average cost worldwide to get a barrel of oil FOB a tanker? That plus say 5% would be my view of the real floor and as old shallow fields decline and are replaced by deep offshore wells that price must be going up weekly.

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2509 Location: ^NNE^

I just heard Lake Erie is actually an oil pool. I can't wait till they start pumping it and the price declines to $1/barrel, forever.
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Graeme

If investment capital flows into green tech, then the author may well be right.
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notill · Coal Joined: Mar 31, 2008 Posts: 5

We're still firmly entrenched in "peak oil". It's all relative and the graph will not go in a straight line. Case in point, wages are declining towards $10 per hour for many, and even after this dramatic drop in commodities gas still costs almost $3.00, (plus perhaps another $10 per gallon in military and political costs to police the oil infrastructure).

Thirty years ago wages were at $5.00 and gas was $.39. Another way of putting it, oil costs are taking an ever increasing share of our financial resources.

Pops

The Peak Oilists are alive and well.

Interestingly, the first thread I responded to here asked the same question:

http://www.peakoil.com/post28.html#28

I don't know if the tactic is an honest question, an invitation to debate or merely an effort to reinforce ones own convictions.

No matter, you may know some of me or not but 'round the first of this year I guessed the price of oil would get near $150 then go below $90 due to price rationing. Not too far wrong at this point and since I don't remember your guess I can't compare.

If you are feeling lonely since no one is responding to you let me clue you in:
The true Peak Oilists only debate for sport when they have time away from the real world.

Whoever else you have been talking to till now has probably become either bored with you or the game or more probably distracted by the reality of wildly fluctuating commodity prices and some other stuff of which you might have read.

I don't have any overarching point to make except to observe that many here have spent lots of effort to become less dependent to the structures on which we now rely and I commend them. As well I wish luck to those like you who trust the machine to make everything all right. As usual the end result will probably be a little of both.

And while I appreciate your contribution of positive news to the site, don't delude yourself into thinking the Peak Oilists have all gone back to life in the 'burbs.

No reply is necessary. Not debating, just stating - I had some spare time.

Smile

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Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3448 Location: Maine

The amount of oil pumped out of the ground is going down. This lower price will guarantee that. Oil projects that were started assuming a price of $100 a barrel won't be profitable.

The world will pump less oil. We'll end up with less.

That's exactly what peak oil theory says.

It doesn't mean the price won't fluctuate.

We'll probably leave a lot of oil in the ground, because people won't want to go get it now.

The low hanging fruit is already picked.

It takes progressively more energy and hassle to get what's left now.

Why bother?

Let's move on. The oil age is over.
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cipi604

Heineken

I'm still here. But I'm giving more priority to other activities than spouting my head off here, which I've already done too much of.

Peak Oil is very much alive as an issue. The greatest economic boom in human history, enabled by a sustained period of maximum oil and NG production, is now unwinding, and we may now have the greatest economic bust in human history, brought on in large part by instabilities created by the record oil prices that the boom stimulated.

Any future economic boom will run into the immovable objects of ever tighter energy supply constraints and ever higher prices.

This oscillation will bring us down, over time.
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