I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2004 5:42 pm Post subject: [Questions for: Dr. Colin J. Campbell]
We here at Peak Oil have a privileged opportunity. Colin Campbell has kindly granted us the chance to ask him some questions.
Mr. Campbell’s time is limited and he is a very busy man. For him to take his time to communicate with us and answer our questions is a act of generousity for sure and shows how much he really wants we people in this world of ours, to understand what is happening in regards to peak oil and for that matter petroleum related everything.
If you think of a question post it here in this forum. At this time I do not plan to set a time limit on the posting. Rather we moderators will watch the questions and try to pick good questions for him.
Because Mr. Campbells time is so limited and his schedule stays so full. He will return the answers as soon as he is able. Probably a couple of days but could be as long as a week.
After we receive his answers they will be posted here on the site for all to read and have discussion about both questions and answers.
So we all need to come up with a questions that we can ask him. Give as many as you want or can. From these questions the moderators will choose a few to send to him for his reply.
You can read more about Colin Campbell as well as peak oil at The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas web site. http://www.peakoil.net/
So lets start posting questions! _________________ Peace out!
Are ASPO updates on predictive depletion rates for hydrocarbons based on new data from reserves estimates alone, or are other factors included? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Aug 31, 2004 Posts: 275 Location: Austin, TX
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:23 pm Post subject:
I would like to thank you, Dr. Campbell, for the tremendous service you've done to the world. Your name will go down in history as "one of the good guys." I've learned so much about this subject from you particularly; and your eloquent interviews at Global Public Media are what sold me, in the beginning, to the seriousness of the situation.
Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 309 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2004 10:14 pm Post subject:
Dr. Campbell,
Occasionally, you have been (somewhat unfairly) criticized because you've had to update your model from time to time. I believe most of us here can appreciate how difficult and inexact a science this is, and appreciate your refinements. However, when trying to talk to the public about peak oil, it would be nice to have a "sound bite" to response about why some of your refinements were necessary.
I was wondering if you could give us an idea, in very general terms, of some of the large changes in your model that shifted dates around. E.g. "your initial predictions were this, then you purchased a private database shifting the date to this, then you accounted for non-con oil shifting the date to this, etc."
Having a brief history of your modelling process would help us make a quick rejoinder to this non-argument.
Regards, and best wishes for you and your family. _________________ "Our forces are now closer to the center of Baghdad than most American commuters are to their downtown office."
--Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, April 2003
More to the point, sir, what can WE be doing at this point? With your estimate of the peak being 2008, and the timeline of the effects of depletion uncertain, we "average" folks have to know how to straddle the line between keeping our heads above water in this society, surviving the transition to the next, and being a usefully-active member of whatever that "next" society is. Any ideas on how to go about this juggling act?
A lot of us could sure do with some sound advice....
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 1938 Location: Richland Center, Wisconsin
Posted: Thu Nov 18, 2004 11:40 am Post subject: CJ Campbell
Thanks, MissingLink, for getting this put together. I will get going on it next week. _________________ --------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2004 5:04 pm Post subject: My question
Mr. Campbell,
You seem to have a fondness for ail. What is your preferred kind?
Edited to include
Do you think extra stout tastes like muddy water too?
Ok I know some of you won't like this question because it not on the topic of peak oil but I bet he will smile when he reads it and give an answer. A little humor to help build report with him.
ML _________________ Peace out!
Cool Hand Linc
Last edited by Cool Hand Linc on Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:55 am; edited 2 times in total
A suggestion, more than a question. Because of the extremely inexact nature of the source data, it's difficult to fix a possible date.
Perhaps it's better to specify a range of possible years for the Peak, and give confidence intervals (just pulling numbers out of the air, but let's say, for example, you can say you're 95% confident it's between 2005-2007, 90% between 2007-2009, etc), instead of pinpointing a year (this month 2008! next month 2005! the month after it's 2006!) and getting criticized from all over because of it.
Those of us who looked at the numbers and understand the nature of the sources will know otherwise, but most people probably won't "get it". _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2004 7:56 pm Post subject: After long thought
Several young children come to you. They live in the US. They tell you that they have been reading your lectures and have been looking at ASPO and they have grown concerned. They tell you they feel they need to prepare for the future but are unsure what they should do. They feel that the US in paticular is in a bad position and so have come to you to ask your advice on what to do for their futures. What would you tell them? _________________ Peace out!
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 12:33 pm Post subject: questions
I mailed a few questions to Mr. Campbell today.
We need more questions! Go to ASPO and look at the information. Look and read and listen. Then when a question comes to mind. Write it down. You may get a question for Colin Campbell or another expert. Go ahead and write it down. _________________ Peace out!
...WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new environment, making early provisions to reduce the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil;
WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.
NOW IT IS PROPOSED THAT
1. A convention of nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
a. to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
b. to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
c. to avoid destabilising financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
d. to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
e. to stimulate the development of alternative energies.
A good statement of the situation, but I don't see how this can be implemented fairly.
I guess that would be for the convention of nations to hash out, but if oil prices remain in reasonable relation to production cost (they never have yet!), presumably below $50 US:
a. cheating and black-market practice would upset the scheme.
b. poor countries could not afford imports
c. consumers would never be encouraged to avoid waste
and so on.
I think when it becomes apparent to enough countries that peak oil scenarios are very likely, as many have acknowledged with CO2 emissions and global warming, that an attempt be made to persuade producing countries that part of their great treasure be shared with poorer countries to help with imports, and to develop substitue energy sources.
Countries that have access to coal reserves that might be substituted should only develop them in as pollution-free manner as possible. If nuclear energy production is developed, it should be done as safely as possible, with care taken for long-term storage of waste. By then the world will be aware that energy is not cheap, and alternatives to oil have to be carefully implemented, whatever the sense of urgency.
Quote:
2.Such an Accord shall having the following outline provisions:
a. No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce;
b. Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate.
This proposal seems reasonable, providing richer countries agree to it, although it looks like the makings of a bureaucratic nightmare that would outshine the European parliament and GATT put together.
Anyway, I realise that the Accord is not in it's final form yet, and I wish to know if you are thinking of proposing any changes, and what they might be.
Dr Campbell lives in a small town in West Cork in Ireland 40 miles away from where I live. He is giving a talk tomorrow night in Cork city. I rang him last week to get details on the meeting. He is very approachable.
Anyway, I asked him when he thought we were going to see major shocks due to PO and he replied that in his opinion it was imminent. Scary stuff.
I will post on Wednesday morning GMT about the content of the meeting. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
What is your preferred kind?
