I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:27 am Post subject: Appeal to Finnish posters
MrBean, IslandCrow and all others, wouldn't it be worthwhile to discuss PO and related subjects from a specifically Finnish point of view? I believe that as the situation progresses, everyone's focus will naturally concentrate on challenges and opportunities in their own country. (Serious international conflicts excepted, of course.)
Here's a rather neglected Finnish PO forum that can serve as one possible medium for sharing thoughts and ideas. If you know any others, please let us know. The issue has obviosly raised too little concentrated attention in our country, although more and more people seem to be catching on, judging by comments made on economic newssites and forums. _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1011 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
Fredrik wrote:
MrBean, IslandCrow and all others, wouldn't it be worthwhile to discuss PO and related subjects from a specifically Finnish point of view?
I agree. We're Finnished. _________________ The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
I see that the forum has been asleep for some time, with the last post from January this year.
What would we need to get it going again? Also do you know any of the people who set the forum up in the first place (although it looks as if you posted there at least once)?
As the forum is 'dead' do you know of other sites that might deal with alternative energy that would be active? In that case they might be a better bet rather than restarting "Oljyhuippu" [Sorry I have to use an English form of the name as some imperialistic software system behind this forum won't allow me to post the extra letters in the Finnish alphabet] _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
Don't know if a dedicated PO forum for Few Fennic Fellows would serve any purpose, perhaps it's for a reason the effort died out. What I know is that perhaps the most prominent young Finnish philosopher, Tere Vaden, is very much PO savvy and talks openly about it, and that the rihmasto people are not ignorant either.
Those who know and want to know, allready know and respond in various ways. Those in denial are hard to talk to without loosing cool.
For those still believing in statehood, I recommend rejoining Russia to get a share of their oil...
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
IslandCrow wrote:
Also do you know any of the people who set the forum up in the first place (although it looks as if you posted there at least once)?
No. They formed a Yahoo group with 17 members so far. There was talk about a meeting in Helsinki a year or two ago, but there apparently hasn't been much real activity since.
IslandCrow wrote:
As the forum is 'dead' do you know of other sites that might deal with alternative energy that would be active?
This blog has relevant, well-written posts on the subject, but doesn't allow comments. Some other bloggers are PO aware as well, but concentrate mostly on other issues.
MrBean wrote:
What I know is that perhaps the most prominent young Finnish philosopher, Tere Vaden, is very much PO savvy and talks openly about it, and that the rihmasto people are not ignorant either.
But you're right, most people will be in denial until oil hits $250-300. By then, it will probably be too late to prepare adequately. As a country, we'll have to cope with the crisis as it comes. But I still see it as an ethical necessity to inform anyone who's willing to listen.
MrBean wrote:
For those still believing in statehood, I recommend rejoining Russia to get a share of their oil...
Nyet, we won't get that lucky. But I still firmly believe in the nation-state as the best short-to-medium term administrative unit to deal with PO that will be available for us. I don't think smaller communities could prevent social chaos, widespread crime and rule of the strongest, which would probably lead to some kind of brutal neo-feodalism. A strong but legitimate national government is also needed to manage available physical and human resources in a way that (hopefully) considers the needs of the whole country. _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:02 am Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
Fredrik wrote:
Nyet, we won't get that lucky. But I still firmly believe in the nation-state as the best short-to-medium term administrative unit to deal with PO that will be available for us. I don't think smaller communities could prevent social chaos, widespread crime and rule of the strongest, which would probably lead to some kind of brutal neo-feodalism. A strong but legitimate national government is also needed to manage available physical and human resources in a way that (hopefully) considers the needs of the whole country.
It's not an either-or issue, I believe it's basically a matter of trust - there is no good reason to trust the nation state system being able to satisfy the basic needs of the citizenry even on short-to-medium term. It can shoot up some of the rioters in streets but it can't guarantee that there is food in the supermarkets and even if there is, that people can afford to eat.
Of course, a total collapse of the nation state is not in the interest of the small permaculture communities at least on short to medium term, but if (and when) that happens, an ecovillage would certainly not be among the worst places to be. Not to mention that when thinking about what kind of post collapse future could and would be quite nice, networks of ecovillages is IMHO the best practical idea so far.
Posted: Fri Sep 26, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: Re: Appeal to Finnish posters
MrBean wrote:
It's not an either-or issue, I believe it's basically a matter of trust - there is no good reason to trust the nation state system being able to satisfy the basic needs of the citizenry even on short-to-medium term. It can shoot up some of the rioters in streets but it can't guarantee that there is food in the supermarkets and even if there is, that people can afford to eat.
As long as producing enough calories for all citizens is physically possible (and it will probably remain possible here, unless there is a sudden climate collapse), the government can ration food and other basic necessities for all on an egalitarian basis, as it did during the war. (And if the government doesn't enforce a fair distribution of resources, it will be quickly overthrown, but the state as an institution will hardly be abandoned.)
Even the most miserable third world countries, with major internal conflicts, usually retain some form of state structure and law enforcement (Somalia is an exception). And these are countries where the modern nation-state often enjoys no traditional support among the tribal population. I presume Finns have a much higher esteem for the modern state structure as a guarantee of civil society.
In anarchy, there is no governing body that could even theoretically provide food for those who don't produce it and can offer no products or services in exchange for it - which would be the majority, at least initially after the collapse. Likewise, sustaining the supply of electricity (and remote heating in urban areas), as long as any can be provided, is a major incentive for maintaining the state rule.
MrBean wrote:
Of course, a total collapse of the nation state is not in the interest of the small permaculture communities at least on short to medium term, but if (and when) that happens, an ecovillage would certainly not be among the worst places to be. Not to mention that when thinking about what kind of post collapse future could and would be quite nice, networks of ecovillages is IMHO the best practical idea so far.
Well, I find the idea of small rural villages, where everyone lives in harmony with each other and the environment, somewhat attractive... But here are three problems, from the top of my head:
1) Sustainability: An ecovillage must be able to produce enough food and energy for its members, or an oversupply of other products/services to buy food from elsewhere (same point as above). This could be problematic in many parts of the country where the climate is not advantageous for agriculture (and cows, sheep etc. cannot be bred as fast as needed).
2) Defence: Of course, an ecovillage that grows its own food is initially better off during a descent into anarchy. But how would a self-sustaining community of, say, 100 members survive with 10,000 hungry and angry people in walking/biking distance? With no police or army for protection and many of those hungry people owning a handgun? So you would have to have everyone living in the same kind of ecovillage network. Which brings us to:
3) Scalability: Only a very small minority would probably be willing to leave their home and join an ecovillage, even during financial hardship and reduced energy supply. If there is any hope to get just enough food and heat where you are now, provided by a governing body that represents the people, I believe the vast majority would prefer that to a primitive, lawless neo-agrarian existence. Especially if there is an ever-growing demand for security against crime (which is very likely). Also, the economies of scale seem to benefit larger, industrially run farms instead of numerous small farms, even during an energy descent. There was an article about that on The Oil Drum, but I can't find it right now.
So, I don't picture Finland in the 1000's, I picture Finland in the 1940's (minus the war... hopefully). _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
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But I still firmly believe in the nation-state as the best short-to-medium term administrative unit to deal with PO that will be available for us. I don't think smaller communities could prevent social chaos, widespread crime and rule of the strongest, which would probably lead to some kind of brutal neo-feodalism. A strong but legitimate national government is also needed to manage available physical and human resources in a way that (hopefully) considers the needs of the whole country.
