Right side of the oil curve will not look like the left?

vision-master

What are yer thoughts?

http://www.jeffvail.net/labels/Geopolitics.html

Nano

The US production doesn't look like a logistic curve. The world will also not.

There will be pincushioning of world oil patches, just like in the US. The shape of the world curve will have a *less* steap right side than the left. Exploration and production in the world will be much more frantic then it ver was in the US. The US, after all, could import oil cheaply which drastically reduces the motivation to drill for it. The world, of course, cannot import oil, which is why the "undulating" plateau theory of CERA probably isn't far from the truth when it comes out. Of course, and undulating plateau will be painfull enough as it is...

MD

I'm thinking Mr. Vail produces very high quality work.
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Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK

Of course the two halves won't quite look the same. The logistic curve is only a model, the input data arises from geological conditions. No forecaster is able, or should attempt, to include economic collapse and/or extraordinary political dislocations into their work. Ultimately a bell curve is a view of the future as it would turn out unless we screw with it.

Ayame

Aaron

In my humble opinion Vale is a disingenuous corporate jerk off, with about as much credibility as toe-jam.

His predictions wouldn't be worth $1 if they came wrapped in $500 bills.

Wanker.
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nth · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976

I have no idea how he can say that the right will be steeper. It seems like he does not take into account of new production. We are adding 3-5mbpd of new oil production per year and this rate will accelerate for the short term due to new found oil fields. Don't get me wrong. These new found oil fields are one time deal and we will not be able to just keep finding new basins full of oil.

I am curious what he is forecasting for new discoveries.

whereagles

It's easy to see why the right tail decline is sharper than the left increase:

As the extraction technologies get more sophisticated, the less the production will behave as a sponge being squeezed and the more it will behave as a can being sipped through a straw.

And we all know how it's like sipping a straw. It's all fine and dandy until it suddently ends Razz

MattSavinar · Elite Joined: May 09, 2004 Posts: 2000

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2509 Location: ^NNE^

Aaron

NEOPO

Why does it always have to be someone from Ohio!? Smile

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jeffvail · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 15, 2004 Posts: 138

And all this time I assumed you meant this guy:

www.jeffvale.net

But, for the record, I probably am a jerk-off Smile

On the substantive points: I agree, the logistics equation that underlies the Hubbert Curve is just a model. I don't know whether the left and the right side of the geologically-dictated curve will look the same--I should have been more clear on that. My point is that whatever the geologically and economically-dictated right side of the curve does look like, I think that geopolitical factors outlined will make realized production fall short of this potential.

~Jeff

MacG · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2005 Posts: 1178

I think this might be just about the only thing Hubbert missed. Otherwise he covered all bases, even the banking system, and there is very little which has been added beyond Hubbert in the endless discussions here and elsewhere.

The right side of the peak could very well look like falling off a cliff somewhere in the coming 5-15 years.

The very process of oil extraction is just as integrated in the globalized bank-loan funded JIT processes built on the assumption of infinite growth as everything else.

In order to extract oil you need a h*ll of a lot of high-tech stuff, sourced globally. There is no special "fast lane" for the oil extraction industry, shielding it from the rest of the economy.

NEOPO

I think the idea has much merit.

Peak Oil is NOT when we peak in production as is commonly believed. A peak in production was merely the signal that Peak Oil for any given region had arrived.

As has been noted by myself and a few others here, we may be way past peak which, if true, would surely add weight to this position.

Tons to add but I dont want to have all the fun Smile

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