I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2005 10:45 pm Post subject: Are we willing to do something about Peak Oil?
This may seem naïve, but please read with an open mind. Sometimes the best solutions are the simplest and right under our noses.
For some time I have been thinking that there is one partial solution that we could do if we are willing. It is not hi-tech, requires no new technology, and about the only thing stopping us is willingness. I doubt though, that most people would be willing, even in the face of immanent economic/ecological collapse. And most people are not even aware of the crisis we face.
What it is: reduce the use of cars by riding bicycles. It may seem silly, but it really could work if people were willing. Would you be willing to ride a bike rather than drive? I know most of you can think up plenty of reasons why this would not work. But keep an open mind. The solution is in our own hands if we are willing to change. Otherwise accept the consequences.
The bicycle is an amazing invention, making human energy remarkably efficient.
A distance of 20 miles or less can be covered in about an hour or so on a bike. It will require more time than driving (unless there are traffic jams/delays, then biking might be quicker). How much time do we waste watching TV? How much time do we spend in self-care activities, like exercise?
Consider the benefits:
you are not driving a car, using oil, and polluting the air;
you get exercise, which is going to help you physically and mentally (reducing medical costs);
you can do shopping/transporting kids with a bike trailer;
bike riding is fun (many people consider it a recreational activity).
Essentially you are doing something good for yourself, something good for the community, and something good for the environment.
For cold weather, rain, snow, etc., bicycle roads that are sheltered could be constructed, at a far lower cost than current road construction costs.
If your commute is more than you can bike-ride in a reasonable amount of time, move closer to your work, or work from home, perhaps using the Internet.
Can we change our mindset that we must drive everywhere? The only solution to our dependence on oil is to change our way of life. There is no other option. The problem is us (our demand for a certain lifestyle regardless of consequences). The solution is us. We might find that in making a change like this, our quality of life, and our general sense of well being, actually improves.
Of course this will not work unless a significant majority of people did it, and what are the chances of that? Still it is a solution available to us if we are only willing to do it.
One way or another I think we'll be seeing more bicycles (and horses too hopefully). In fact we could be seeing lots of bikes! Although I don't think a lot of people will choose that route without a little nudge from the rising oil prices.
I think a good idea would be to outlaw automobiles in the center of our largest cities here in the states. However bicyles (and horses) are welcome. The city would then provide a bunch of random bicycles all over the town, and someone could just grab a bike as they walk out of the Gap with their Peak Oil t-shirt. I know that's been tried in I think Portland and a city or two in Europe. Not sure how it worked out.
Think about how peoples personalities change when they get behind the wheel of a car. I won't miss that. More bikes good yes (and horses too).
Maybe if people get out of their cars and walk, and ride a bike (and horses too). They will actually have to start interacting with other live human beings. They might look around and say...hey "I like this life better without all these cars around...I can hear myself think again." They would then start to meet their neigbors because they are no longer hiding in their metal shells...and they would say "man, we were hoodwinked by the auto age"
In the meantime though, I'm not a big fan of riding my bike on major roadways. People just don't look out for bikes. Plus with all the people on cellphones nowdays, they're even more distracted. A friend of mine was re cently run over on his bike by a guy talking on a cell phone.
There are some good sides to peak oil and one of them will be more bikes.
I guess the question for me is: what are the chances that enough people will make changes in the way they live?
Probably the chances are not good.
The sad thing is that our future is in our hands...we can choose.
The worst thing about riding a bike is cars. I've been hit myself. Less cars on the raod would be good for bike riders and wallers/runnners (and horseback riders). 1 horsepower per person makes more sense than a gas-guzzling, air-polluting 500 HP V-8.
"But it is so much fun to step on the gas and burn rubber!"
Perhaps some routes can be dedicated to "oil-free" transportation (bikes, foot, horses, skate boards, etc.)
Perhaps the goverment can provide incentives to leave the car parked and get around some other way.
I don't know the stats about how much oil is consumed by cars and how much it would help to switch to bikes. I know there are a LOT of cars in the US. I know the whole infrastructure is oil-dependent. But I think we need to take action and do something rather than find reasons to continue the status quo.
The point is that we do have this alternative available to us but we are not likely to use it. We hope for some new technology to save us and permit us to continue living as we have.
I do not believe we will avoid the collapse because I don't think we collectively are willing to make significant changes in the way we live. So we must bear the consequences.
I think that solutions are avaiable to us now but we will not use them, sadly.
I'm getting my bike out of the barn this spring--a vintage 1978 Fuji 12-speed--where it has languished for fifteen years. I will dust it off, take it to the bike shop, have it put back in shape.
Problem is, even on this country road in the Northeast where we live, I'm afraid of being MOWED down by an SUV. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Bikes are great, and when you do go out riding in the country you feel much closer to nature. There's limit of how far people can ride them (about 30-50 miles usually) but certainly for medium and short distances it is the answer.
I was thinking this morning just how much people like Microsoft have done for the environment. Software produces money without necessarily using large amounts of energy, and it can cure unnecessary journeys and allow people to work at home, the train or in hotels and so on.
Before the economic boom in China nearly everyone rode a bicycle. Since then people have become richer in China, now 20 million people drive cars and guess what - they like it (mainly for the prestige). All the other chinese see the cars and want one. The number of car users is set to jump from 20 million to 120 million in the next two decades. So.........good luck with the bicycle trend.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:11 am Post subject:
I don't think I'm strong enough to ride my bike 12 hilly miles to the store and 12 hilly miles back....I'm kind of a feeb, and not getting any younger.
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:08 am Post subject: Don't forget walking
Bikes are great. No doubts about that - but don't forget about the simple act of walking. It cracks me up watching people try to find the parking spot closest to the store. It also makes me sick sometimes.
Down the street there's an auto shop on one side of the street and a McDonald's on the other side of the street. Small, two-lane side street with minimal traffic. A crosswalk apart. One day I'm walking by and one of the mechanics comes out, gets in his truck, drives across the street to the McDonald's. He got his food (I hate to call it that) and drove back across the street to the shop.
I walk to/from work, stores, etc. I don't own a car. There's no need.
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1633 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:39 am Post subject:
I'm trying to get my company to decentralize and use telecommunications. We're a software firm and we don't need to park bodies in a downtown Seattle office. I'm located about 300 miles from the office and commute downstairs to my office by foot. The head of marketing lives in Connecticut and we have a support engineer living in Kansas.
All we really need is a small office that would accommodate maybe five people and have a conference room for when customers visit. As it is the majority of the employees have to commute from all over the Puget Sound and be crammed into a sometimes hot, sometimes cold and always noisy converted factory on the waterfront.
My experience at Microsoft is what initiated this thread of thinking. Here was this huge campus with multimillion dollar buildings that MS leased; people drove to work and went to their individual offices and then spent the day communicating with each other by internal email. I think I saw my boss about once a week and most software design was done by email with maybe a meeting every few weeks. The only time we ever came together as a group was on Friday end of the week parties and for the final release to manufacturing sign-off party. _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 607 Location: The Pit of Despair
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:55 am Post subject:
Ludi wrote:
I don't think I'm strong enough to ride my bike 12 hilly miles to the store and 12 hilly miles back....I'm kind of a feeb, and not getting any younger.
You could add an electric motor to get you up the hills.
This spring, I seriously considered replacing my 16-year-old Ford sedan with an electric bike. (I live in a very hilly area.) It would be expensive, but much cheaper than a car. I don't drive much, don't have kids, and live only 2 miles from my office. There's a Rent-A-Wreck only a couple of blocks away.
But after considering it, and researching it for months, I bought a Toyota Corolla. (I expect it to be the last car I ever buy.) It just would not be safe to bike in this area. People drive like maniacs. I can and do walk to work, but not in the winter, when the sidewalks are covered with 5' plowdrifts. Cars skid all over the road in the snow and ice, making walking hazardous. Biking would be even more hazardous. I walked and drove around the neighborhood, looking for safer routes, and didn't find any. And looking at biking Web sites, it seems an awful lot of bikers get seriously injured and killed when they are struck by vehicles.
Then there's night travel. There's no way I'd bike at night around here. I don't even walk at night. Besides the cars, you have to worry about muggers, rapists, and general vandals. I'd probably be mugged for my bike. Heck, that's somewhat of a worry even in broad daylight, at least in some neighborhoods.
I do plan to buy that electric bike (maybe with a solar charger). But I won't be using it exclusively until the cars are off the roads.
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