I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2004 12:27 pm Post subject: The Myth of PANIC
I have been lurking here for about a week (I'm having trouble picking a screen name-suggestions welcomed) and I have observed, repeatedly and cyclically, in current and archived postings, the accusation that Peak Oil 'advocates' are engaging in doom and gloom fear-mongering, chicken littlleness and unbalanced, hystrionic instigations of PANIC.
Panic is wastful, irrational, harmfull and dangerous.
Yet I have not seen a single irrational suggestion or wasteful idea for preparation that would harm or endanger the individual with or WITHOUT an eventual collapse!
Put away some spare, long-lasting food and water supplies-if Chicken Little is wrong how could this have harmed you to have done so anyway?
Avoid Debt and save-what's the irrational problem here?
Weatherize your home and put a brick in the toilet-very Panicy.
Move to a more rural area where the air is fresh(for now) the water sorta clean, animals exist outside of zoos and you can see the stars- yep, this would send me into a PANIC.
Maintain, re-establish or create solid, caring and durable connections and friendships with your family, friends and neighbors- a sure fire recipe for PANIC
Plant a garden and save some seeds in a jar in the freezer- learn the whole cycle of organic gardening from earth building to seed saving to root cellaring? How does this HURT?
Adapt to a new diet. . . a healthier more sustainable one . . . yeah McDonald's should PANIC . . . but me?
Go to the Doctor, get any undone minor or major operations or proceedure you've been putting off done e.g dental work or that sebacious cyst removed- how could this HURT? (do the same for pets)
Put some money into GOLD(the real metal-not Gold Contracts) nor paper 'equity'. Sure you may not see any big 'return', but no HONEST, GOOD financial advisor would fault this.
Explore, or even better, invest in PV, mini-hydro, wind, home geo-therm, solar ovens, yadda . . . more irrational behaviors.
Fix yur bike . . .senseless?
NO REASONABLE MEASURES TAKEN IN BELIEF OF THE PEAK OIL THESIS WILL DO YOU HARM IN THE LONG RUN, WITH OR WITHOUT A CRASH. In fact they will help you either way.
Even the kids here re-considering college; assuming they use the next four years to prepare, learn new skills, build community, save money, stay healthy and a miracle happens- there is no energy crash- what will they have lost when they decide to go back to school? If they do, they will be wiser, richer, smarter, and more self-sufficient; ALL skills you rarely find at college in the first place.
Finally, I think that accusations of Panic are a projection of fear of change, moreover fear of RESPONSIBILITY. Like labeling those critical of the President as 'unpatriotic' these perjoratives defend the staus quo, suppress the human spirit and encourage helplessness . . . and eventually CAUSE REAL PANIC.
The Challenge of Peak Oil, as has always been the Human Predicament, is to seek self-sufficiency in service to a durable, cooperative community. NOT rugged individualism in pursuit of senseless, futile, meglomaniacal growth without limits.
Congratulations on a really positive and strong post.
I think what you've said there is possibly the best argument I've heard yet against people who say "Don't let the masses know, they'll panic or we'll all be trying to do the same thing come die off time."
If we all took the sensible precautions (and positive lifestyle changes) like you outlined then the world might well be a better place.
I'd obviously subtract from that the idea of us all moving to the country - that would be chaotic!!
However, I'd add to that we should all be thinking more responsibly about energy use, fuel consumption etc. A great reason that everyone should know just how serious the situation could be.
I think there is a difference between taking some time out in your life to make some preperations, and throwing all your eggs into one basket, going all out to prepare and forget to live in the present! Fact of the matter is, we will all be better of if we all take little steps to prepare, rather than every one go nuts.
Personally, I've been weaning the car out slowly, going a few days at a time without it. Next step is to take weeks. I'm also planning though to use it for some longer trips, to do somethings I may not be able to do in the distant/not to distant future, such as hike some nearby mountains I've always wanted to.
But for every day life around the house, I've pumped some air into my bike tires (after the thing sat idle for over a year) and begun a new hobby! Tomorrow I get an eye exam and hopefully pick up some new glasses, while the insurance company covers it. Then I go to the dentist for the first time in years (shudder). I'm nowhere near peak oil ready and probably won't be for a long while, but I'm a lot closer than I was a month ago!
Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2004 2:39 pm Post subject: Great Post
Now that was refreshing...
Thank you.
That goes a long way toward establishing credibility IMO.
In light of your post, I suggest screen name Yoda
"Wisdom lies along the middle path" _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Apr 10, 2004 Posts: 143 Location: Tulsa OK
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2004 12:54 am Post subject:
Oilburner wrote:
“If we all took the sensible precautions (and positive lifestyle changes) like you outlined then the world might well be a better place.”
There’s the way things are, and the way things ought a be.
I don’t see anyone keeping anything from the masses. Did you find out about Peak Oil in a top secret briefing? If the “masses” want to find out they can, easily. Most people don’t want to know.
Sorry if there was confusion there, I didn't mean to imply that the information is being blocked from public view (it's hardly promoted by the PTB though) , rather that there are many people who have suggested that we shouldn't be promoting Peak Oil Theory for reasons x,y and z. Typically: everyone will panic and go nuts if they knew. I think "Little Chicken"'s post is an excellent reposte to that argument. As the Scouts say: be prepared! _________________ Burning the midnight oil, whilst I still can.
Joined: Jun 18, 2004 Posts: 4 Location: Phoenix, AZ. USA
Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2004 7:26 pm Post subject:
This is my first post. I found this site my luck and enjoy reading the responses.
I have tried to do a great deal of what yoda has stated. I currently live on 6 acres, I have 7-100 watt pannels and 4-75 watt pannels, I do all my own building and recycle everything ( infact my house and all my shops are built from recycle material), both of my ups are recycled. We have started a program of reducing fuel usage, I store food and we have our own well and storgae tank, Yet there is still more to do.
I feel the peak oil is a real problem thet is not being effectly addressed and will eventuality bit us. Hoping to learn more from this site. Thanks :D
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