I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:27 pm Post subject: Another Draft Thread
Whenever I see articles that make a draft seem much more imminent, they usually come from the Internet; those who scoff at the very idea of the draft usually do so through the newspaper.
I don't see why it would be so outrageous to reinstate it, though doing so at this time wouldn't be a great idea. Every major American war that involved attacking other countries involved a draft, and while today might be a bit different, the process seems like it could still happen, as long as the people are angry enough.
But what use are draftees when there are others who can do the fighting? The mercenary industry seems to be doing very well at this time, and I can only see them growing larger as the demand for bodies goes up with a new war. There is no shortage of people willing to kill people. If a guy is willing to kill someone for five bucks, I'll bet that there will be plenty of guys willing to face considerable danger for thousands, especially from foreign countries with overt problems.
When I think about a likely draft, I usually think of prisoners, because, in the US at least, there are quiet a few of them, and they are a renewable resource. The greatest part is that people seem to rabidly hate or simply don't care about them, since prison seems to be the only case of where rape is acceptable by most people. A few of them in there may be a bit unstable, but I'd think that most of the people who were involved in drug related crimes would be willing to reduce or nullify their sentence in exchange for military service.
I think there were and probably still are a lot of people in the military who would have ended up in prison if they didn't make a choice. My uncle chose to go to Vietnam rather than stay in prison, and I'm sure there were thousands of people just like him. If there was a draft of certain eligible prisoners I could imagine that the public would accept or even encourage it, and I think that many prisoners would be much more accepting of a draft, since I'd think that many of them will probably get the idea that military life is better than prison life.
I realize that there is all kinds of shady stuff happening in the government regarding the draft. There just seems like there are plenty of others who would do the fighting. I'm definately no expert on the subject, but what would keep the government from using mercenaries and prisoners, or some other resource that I haven't though of, to fill up any troop shortages? A military draft has very bad political consequences, not mainly because of public dissent, but because it gives equal enemies ammunition for smearing their opponent, and it just seems like there would be many other replacement options that seem much more publicly acceptable than a draft. I'm not saying that this would negate the need for a draft, and I just can't see a draft coming anytime soon with some other options that appear to have less of a negative impact than a full draft.
We shall see what happens to our then "lame duck" 2nd term President after November. Until then the draft is political suicide.
But after the election... He can't be President again you understand... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
If Bush is elected for a second term, and then a couple months later announces we are re-instating the draft, I'm sorry but doesn't that sound a "tad" bit obvious? Doesn't that make a glaring hole in our political system (politicians only act on the premise of getting re-elected) a little to visible for any elites comfort? People are not that stupid. Then again, I get proven wrong time after time. Hell, if Bush is even still in office a second term the way things are looking I'd have been proven wrong on this area...
That said I don't recall many serious threads on the draft here, or really anywhere else on the web. Maybe it's just not a topic that can be discussed seriously. Still seems a bit too un-real. The prisoner suggestion is a new one, however. It's interesting, but I'm sure the ACLU will never let it happen!
http://peakoil.com/article591.html _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
I wouldn't think that Kerry would be any different in terms of war. He seems to be just as eager to bend over for the military industrial complex.
On some other message boards, I've seen many people that are predicting a draft to be reinstated in Spring 2005 or something, which seems like a pretty specific and confident guess. Of course, most people can't believe such a things happening, since I guess the Cold War was this generation's war to end all wars. People these days, especially kids my age in the Bay Area of California, probably wouldn't like a draft, unless of course the recruiting commercials use the word "extreme" and yell a lot.
The point I was trying to make with the original post is that many people seem to think that a draft will happen pretty soon -- at least on other parts of the Internet, like FTW, and I think Matt thinks it will come around soon -- but it looks like there are still a few options to consider, like prisoners and the mercenary industry -- the new IT industry -- rather than making a decision that will cause great domestic unrest, which of course depends on the changing public mood. I can understand the intervention of the ACLU if an idea to draft prisoners took place, but I think they're going to have to deal with many new laws that will destroy their cases in the forseeable future. The "national security" card works in most situations.
Well our government has been doing a pretty good job avoiding civil unrest considering the precarious nature of the problems this young republic is facing in the upcoming years. If you read the Project for a New American Century documents, ideas put forth by the likes of Cheany, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc, a draft is the last thing those guys want to suggest. (Confirmed by Rumsfelds comments that you can be would be much quoted if his admin were to start drafting). Considering some of the other objectives they put forth (aka, military occupation of the planet) they need to have some kinda alternative.
Prisoners would seem like a logical way to keep the occupation going without sending lil' rich kids of folks with the almighty power of the $$$ out to the desert. Today, poor kids have the option of prison, or the military. If itch's suggestion holds any weight, tomorrow the poor will be forced to choose prison AND the military...
Drafting prisoners would have tremendous unintended consequences. A few points:
1. Twenty percent of prisoners are illiterate. A much greater percentage are barely literate.
2. About twenty percent are also mentally ill. An even greater percentage may not be clinically mentally ill, but are far from reliable.
3. The overwhelming majority are there for low level drug transactions. I.E. posssession or sales of less than $40 of narcotics. What type of society takes people who did nothning more than sell $20 of weed and sends them to prison or to fight for oil?
4. The overwhelming majority are black or latino. In the US, we incarcerate 1 out of 3 black men. We incarcerate black men at a rate 4 times that of South Africa! Again, most for low level drug transactions.
I think drafting prisoners would result in massive civil disobedience, bordering on civil war.
Not saying the powers that be won't attempt it, but they would be wise not to, as I think it would be the straw that broke the camel's back.
Here's how I think the draft will go down:
1. Michael Moore's film helps stir up anti-Saudi sentiment among the general population.
2. House of Saud continues to destabilize.
3. Increased terrorist activity, relating to number two.
4. Need a president to call for a draft? Who better to ask than a Democrat ex-war hero? Just like you needed a Dem to get welfare reform through, you need a Dem to get the draft.
John Kerry has said he will fight the war on terror "better" than Bush!
Joined: Apr 10, 2004 Posts: 143 Location: Tulsa OK
Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2004 1:39 am Post subject:
Itch said:
"I think there were and probably still are a lot of people in the military who would have ended up in prison if they didn't make a choice."
You can't enlist with an arrest record. You also have to have a high school diploma.
But to be on the safe side you better start making some contacts in Canada.
By the way have you tried Preparation H, just a thought. _________________ ------------------------------------There's the way things are, and the way they oughta be.What you do is more important than how you "feel".
3. The overwhelming majority are there for low level drug transactions. I.E. posssession or sales of less than $40 of narcotics. What type of society takes people who did nothning more than sell $20 of weed and sends them to prison or to fight for oil?
But they fund terrorism.
What I had in mind was that most of these drug offenders might be more likely to function in the military, because the non violent people are usually exploited in whatever way, so they might be more motivated to leave prison, rather than some fat kid who is being forced to fight in some country he's never heard of. A lot of people in the military right now were indicted for some mild felony, like stealing cars and setting children on fire, chose to go into the military instead of prison. I'm not saying that's what the majority of the military's composed of, but I'm sure it's still something to consider. I'd think that most young males would be very accepting of a draft. Besides, when gas prices rise, materials for prisons will get more expensive, so maybe it's better to get rid of them sooner. I'm sure the quality of prisons will greatly decay very soon, but there will probably only be more of them once rioting for whatever reason breaks out, and only a limited number of prisons will be able to stand when there is a general material shortage.
While the quality of a non violent prisoner and an average civilian might be debateable, because most people are pretty goddamn fat right now, and would be very reluctant to accept a draft, I'd think that the military could just decide by looking at the records of prisoners, seeing their crime records, recent medical health and such.
Quote:
I think drafting prisoners would result in massive civil disobedience, bordering on civil war.
Why? When prison rape in many movies and television commercials are depicted in a humorous way, it shows how much a culture cares about its massive prison population. If many people make jokes about dropping soap and getting gang raped, then I don't think they would be too revolted; they would, however, be a bit more upset when middle class Johnny Aryan was one semester away from getting his degree in Engineering before he was blown to pieces in the desert.
Quote:
1. Michael Moore's film helps stir up anti-Saudi sentiment among the general population.
I think the general audience would be more inclined to be angry with the Bush administration -- at least that's what it appeared to me. I'd bet that almost no people walked out of that movie knowing one significant official from Saudi Arabia; they'd probably just say, "Uh, that guy, you know, Saudi...uh, Habib Saudi...ANYBODY BUT BUSH."
Quote:
4. Need a president to call for a draft? Who better to ask than a Democrat ex-war hero? Just like you needed a Dem to get welfare reform through, you need a Dem to get the draft.
Yeah. You're right. Democrats, at least within the past one hundred years, every draft was enacted by a democrat. And what if Bush wins? I get the feeling that his masters have been spending hundreds of millions of dollars on propaganda for a reason. It may be pocket change for most of them, but I still think that Bush will get reelected for some bizarre reason. Yeah, no president has been elected with the recent poll numbers, but no other election was the one in 2000, and with the use of goofy computerized voting machines, I can only see plenty of laughing on my part. With Bush in office, he has a full term to do all kinds of creepy things without worrying about the public or reelections. The goofy laws he has already enacted are just a warm up for the real fun if he returns for his final term.
Matt, I'm curious about your thoughts on the mercenary industry and its growing role in war. It seems to be very popular now, and with plenty of wars coming up and pretty big supply of people who are willing to kill for money, I can only see the industry expanding. Perhaps they'll play a role in settling domestic unrest once the police are ineffective for whatever reason
I do believe that there eventually will be a draft of citizens, although with the current mood right now, it would be very unpopular. Since people seemed to have calmed after a few kids from out of town smashed their mailbox with a baseball bat, they would need another attack to give them a good scare again. I don't know what the next target for America is, but i'm keeping an eye out for troop deployments, harsh language against a particular country, sanctions, which have already been imposed on the Syrians; and some market anomalies, because I think it's been too long since the color alert or whatever hasn't been raised in a while, and people are starting to become a bit more skeptical of war once their anger and hate is absent.
Joined: Apr 10, 2004 Posts: 143 Location: Tulsa OK
Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2004 3:16 am Post subject:
Itch, your initial post seemed to characterize the military as being on par with convicts, dope pushers and mecenaries. Could you elaborate if this is your view. What do you base this on etc. _________________ ------------------------------------There's the way things are, and the way they oughta be.What you do is more important than how you "feel".
Itch, your initial post seemed to characterize the military as being on par with convicts, dope pushers and mecenaries. Could you elaborate if this is your view. What do you base this on etc.
Itch, your initial post seemed to characterize the military as being on par with convicts, dope pushers and mecenaries. Could you elaborate if this is your view. What do you base this on etc.
That is not my view at all. Here is what my initial post meant:
1: US military is or will eventually be unable to support current and future operations with the lack of man power, making a classic draft of citizens a necessity to make up for the human shortage.
2: There are other sources of man power, like some prisoners ot those about to be sentenced, to at least temporarily relieve and overstreched military. It's possible, though debateable, whether drafting these people will be better than a draft of citizens from all class backgrounds. I'm just thinking of different options of a manpower source.
3: Mercenaries, civilian contractors, or whatever you want to call them, have a very lucrative job right now, and I suspect that the industry will grow as the demand for people with combat or military experience climbs.
I realize that the current military is made up of all races, classes, and whatever lables I'm missing. Some of them want money for college; some of them might have some weird idea of adventure; and many of them enlist because they love their country. However, even today, some folks that are sentenced for a crime often are given a choice between prison time or military time, meaning that some people in the military would be in prison if they made a different choice.
Instituting a draft of civilians, depending on the public's mood, is a very volatile decision, and it just seems like there are some other temporary answers to the shortage of man power that won't have the same political consequences of a draft.
If Dubya wanted to reinstate the draft, he missed his chance. If he'd announced it on Sept. 12, 2001, everyone would have gone along with it...happily.
Now? No way. He can't do it without Congress's help, and they won't put their necks on the block.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
