Morgan Stanley Economist mentions and analyzes Peak Oil

syncrude · Coal Joined: Jul 07, 2004 Posts: 4

This is the best explanation for someone looking at the situation from an economics perspective. It is Part II in 2 part series. Hubbert's Peak is actually mentioned. link

OilsNotWell · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 1257

CNBC Also had an analyst mention peak oil, and basically, how not to expect to ever go back to cheap oil. Peak Oil will now see quite a bit of coverage this weekend, and it will now play into the news cycle. In other words, now that oil has actually broken records, they'll try to answer why in their story, and give play to peak oil theory. They did, however, mention that the "peakers" were "a minority," and peak could be anywhere between now to thirty years from now. However, one analyst mentioned dates of 2005, 2010, and 2015 for peak oil. A strange sense of "don't panic" with "reasons to panic."

As far as the larger media goes, they may tend to "like" this story more because of it's environmental aspect, among many other things. This story has "legs" but it is will largely be dismissed until really, really, blatantly obvious things start to happen (as in: "How come my gas at the pump is $3/gallon!! Doh!) Then people will start to demand answers, and then re-answers, and then finally, most will realize the full, inescapable, brutal, real truth. Expect a gradual transition to that point, then increasingly rapid changes.

Also expect to see big price swings in oil, as those who recently read about the theory for the first time may try and jump into the market, and earlier and larger investors try to get out. That will fuel even more speculation. Very, very volatile. Nervousness, panic starting to begin. But just as predicted, IMHO.

Certain leaders, national bodies, and other indviduals and organizations may try to instill "calm." But all the talking in the world will not change geology and our rate of consumption.