| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
EddieB
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 21, 2005
Posts: 132
Location: BA PA USA
|
 Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 7:25 am Post subject: US Gov Stats on GDP/inflation/growth |
  |
|
This is the most interesting quote from the article (It was published in August of last year, so maybe it's already been digested on this site).
| Quote: | | As a result of the systemic manipulations, if the GDP methodology of 1980 were applied to today's data, the second quarter's annualized inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 3.0% would be roughly three percent lower (effectively netting to zero percent or below). |
If this guy is correct then the US economy is barely growing right now. How long until a debt crisis goes off if this is true?
Gillespie Research |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
EddieB
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 21, 2005
Posts: 132
Location: BA PA USA
|
| Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 7:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | | Ironically, we boast that the economy is strong enough to handle higher energy costs, but evidence of that strength to handle more burden is distorted growth from wrongful (favorable) adjustment of those same energy costs!!! Most economic growth comes from hedonics to information technology and improper removal of general cost increases. The most glaring obvious higher cost born by the public and business world is for energy costs. The 1Q2005 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was up an annualized 2.54% which is below the price index of +3.3% announced. The PCE is also known as the GDP Deflator. Find a rationale for any claim that the economic price rises were up only 6.3% since the 1Q of 2002. You cannot. It is nonsense and pure deception. Our GDP growth is mostly exaggerated technology spending and price inflation!!! The chart below has been shown before, and is worth an update. |
Financial Sense
Here's another article that links GDP growth to energy costs even more directly. Looks to me like the economy can barely grow at $50/barrel. Makes me wonder what would happen at the, "inflation adjusted high of 80-90/barrel of 1980". |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
|
| Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 9:24 am Post subject: |
|
|
High oil prices contribute to inflation, which income growth is barely overcoming.
| Quote: | Savings Rate Approaches Zero
by Charles Mackay, Friday May 27 2005
Despite strong wage growth, personal savings fell to 0.4% percent in April.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday that wages and salaries grew at a rapid annual rate of 9.0% in April. Yet after-tax, inflation-adjusted personal income barely grew at all - after falling slightly in March. Real disposable income continued a trend noted in Thursday's revised GDP report, which estimated that real disposable income decreased at a 1.2% annual rate in the first quarter.
Higher inflation rates and a substantial increase in the personal tax rate almost entirely consumed wage gains. Yet even the sluggish growth in real disposable personal income does not fully reflect the deterioration in household liquidity. Consumers also face growing interest and principle payments due to the rapid accumulation of credit and mortgage debt in recent years - especially those with ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages). |
more at
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=995 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
JoeW
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 607
Location: The Pit of Despair
|
| Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 12:49 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| DantesPeak wrote: | High oil prices contribute to inflation, which income growth is barely overcoming.
| Quote: | Savings Rate Approaches Zero
by Charles Mackay, Friday May 27 2005
Despite strong wage growth, personal savings fell to 0.4% percent in April.
|
|
i just want to know when i can expect to see some of this reported strong wage growth. the inflation has been here for a while. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
EddieB
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 21, 2005
Posts: 132
Location: BA PA USA
|
| Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 1:04 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Yeah, no kidding. I just heard on the radio that wage growth was, "up 0.7% and spending was up 0.6%" (can't rememeber the time-span - monthly?-) Does that mean savings is up 0.1%? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
|
| Posted: Fri May 27, 2005 2:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| EddieB wrote: | | Yeah, no kidding. I just heard on the radio that wage growth was, "up 0.7% and spending was up 0.6%" (can't rememeber the time-span - monthly?-) Does that mean savings is up 0.1%? |
Good question. Figures quoted are changes from the previous month, to annualize multiply by about 12 to get a rough answer.
In this case slower spending growth than income growth should have increased the savings rate about 1%. But the savings rate declined again due to the increase in the personal tax rate, mostly from bracket creep - paying a higher rate of tax as your income gets higher.
The wage growth rate, which makes of most of the total personal income growth, is a hard figure to swallow. The Department of Labor itself said job gains in April were mostly in lower income jobs. I have a strong feeling you will see both smaller employment growth and wage growth for May. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
