I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:43 pm Post subject: A reality amongst many
This fall or winter quarters we will probably begin to see oil hit $100+ a barrel. Where most begin to imagine how bad it will look in a place like the US or Europe but I ask what will happen to the poor countries around the world. As the price of oil rises many of the developing countries in Africa, Asia, S. America, and the Middle East will draw closer to the point of not being able to afford oil. The richer nations will keep consuming oil with a slow down in domestic and industrial use. I at first thought that market forces would never be able to correct such an embalance but it becomes closer to likey in the view above. However a situation might arrise in the US in which the gradual conservative reform as of late travels into the depths of fascism and most likely attempt to secure the energy and China army with new guns comes into the picture. Thats if China doesn't invade Taiwan sparking a US intervention and the list goes on. The Roman empire took a few hundred years to collapse. Given this don't expext to go to bed and the next day everything has changed. It has in your mind but the world needs time to catch up. It can be compared to looking at a timeline of a few hundred years sumed up by a 12inch number line... a lot of time and detail gets left out. If the third world was forced into accepting a lower quality of life because the rich countries say so, we might actually have another bump on the long way down. I personally wish for the US to collapse as this would allow it to start off new. When you look at some of the more sinical problems of the US you begin to realize that they extent to the core of the government going back to the Constition. Look at the Boston Tea party, a symbol of the revolutionary war, originated over tax.
Knowledge is Power, Energy creates knowledge.
Last edited by scw86 on Sun Jul 03, 2005 8:43 am; edited 1 time in total
That's kind of weird. I'm not so sure we will see $100 oil this fall. Everyone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply, and so they're building stockpiles now, which is why we have $60 oil already. Oil at $60 is already causing demand destruction in poor countries like Zimbabwe, there was an excellent post here on that the other day.
Not sure what to say about the rest of your post, but I wouldn't expect any voluntary reduction in demand from the rich countries. Look at the lessons from Kyoto - the US basically said there's no way we're doing that if countries like China are exempt, we couldn't compete. The same thing would be said about oil rationing...
But this begs the question, would humanity make the same mistakes again?
Agreed, what parameter would prevent history from repeating itself? A start- over scenario certainly wouldn't make a difference in that sense. This doesn't necessarily imply that there is only a get-it-over scenario left to work with...
Everyone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply
A shortage can cause the price of a commodity to go up, hence that 1.5mb/day shortage could just as easily end up as higher prices for the market. Then we will begin to see price wars between countries which will end up denying poverty struck nation the access to oil.
I think Americans will complain first, before they begin to stop driving and the government doesn't seem to up on saving with a war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US army essentially being a conversion of oil into force via the (Tanks, Helicopters, Jets, Cruise Missiles, Navy, and Hummer!)
Also traditionally speaking winter tends to see the most oil demand of a year.
Quote:
Oil at $60 is already causing demand destruction in poor countries like Zimbabwe,
The very thing that could happen to Zimbabwe was exactly what I was talking about in the original post. However many believe the case above was caused by the economical and political instability.
As for the "it" this refers to the subject of the sentence which is the USA.
The fundamental problems with the government of the USA have led to many of the problem we face today. It (USA!) has brainwashed its citizens into a wasteful society in which people are detached from real social relationships and instead concentrates on the constant consumption of consumerism. "What will I buy next on a credit card!" The deepiest problem of the US is the corruption of the government by the rich via the use of soft money and lobbyist(A legal briber). Most of the Founding Farthers of America were rich white slave owners but then again a certain president with close ties to the oil industry was still able to steal an election and buy a relection.
Last edited by scw86 on Mon Jul 04, 2005 6:53 am; edited 1 time in total
Forgot to mention this story on how the US stock piles are low which contradicts the persumption that we have been stocking up. Further more China is only in the planning phase of a national oil repository. Who is stockpiling then.
Prices rose yesterday after the release of weekly Energy Department data showing that U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and gasoline decreased, adding to fears of a tight market.
U.S. collapse is not going to help anything at this point. China and India have already subscribed to the program.
The U.S. simply has the most efficient system to create prosperity which other nations are quickly copying. The only issue is the foundation is built mainly on non-renewable energy.
"The U.S. simply has the most efficient system to create prosperity "
your kidding right? I guess you meant to replace "prosperity" with "debt". The US has the lowest savings rate in the world and the largest stockpile of debt in the world. In reality we have nothing and that will come back to bite the average american fool when the credit bubble bursts and they realize they never actually had more than the joneses.
Everyone seems pretty aware of a projected 1.5 Mb/day shortfall in supply
A shortage can cause the price of a commodity to go up, hence that 1.5mb/day shortage could just as easily end up as higher prices for the market. Then we will begin to see price wars between countries which will end up denying poverty struck nation the access to oil.
Don't forget the efficient market hypothesis. If people are aware of the projected shortfall, they will prepare for it and stock up, driving the current price up. There is no other "good" explanation for $60 at this point in time. Stockpiles are high, there is (reportedly) some spare capacity in the event of a supply disruption...
In your other post, you state that stockpiles are low. That is not correct; the article simply said they were down from the previous week. Stockpiles are at high levels, and continuing to build.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2005 7:44 pm Post subject:
jimmydean wrote:
U.S. collapse is not going to help anything at this point. China and India have already subscribed to the program.
The U.S. simply has the most efficient system to create prosperity which other nations are quickly copying. The only issue is the foundation is built mainly on non-renewable energy.
The current US dollar based world trading and exchange system, which is an ad-hoc, de facto replacement and the second version of the Bretton Woods agreement making the dollar the center of the financial universe is the most effective empire wealth grabbing system in the history of mankind. It is also a highly unstable system, and I suspect, doomed for a number of reasons of which Peak Oil is only one.
Although projecting military force around the world is a necessary requirement of this system, it is not required in all countries. Our obstensible future enemy, China, not only is a part of this system but goes to great lengths to support the dollar system. [see also my comments here: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9295.html ]
Ironically as the world economy is crushed by the energy shockwave, the dollar gets stronger - as there is a perception that the US can do relatively better than the rest of the world in these circumstances. There is some truth to that statement in the short term, but it an illusion to think the US economy will eventually do better than the rest of the world. The US is most dependent on the dollar system, therefore it will become the most damaged by its downfall.
Any number of events could change the world's perception that all savings should be directed to the US, such as an attack on Iran, or a down turn in the real estate market driving the economy.
Until that occurs, we may see both the dollar and oil gain in value.
I personally wish for the US to collapse as this would allow it to start off new.
There's a lot of sh!t that the US does to other nations that doesn't get shown or gets whitewashed by the time it hits the Fox News channel.
However if you think that's bad imagine being under Roman rule. At least Americans don't capture their enemies and throw them into gladiator stadiums to get butchered as entertainment for the masses.
Or would British rule be prefureable? I wonder what Queen Elizabeth's opinion would be about allowing EVERY nation free ship movement throughout international waters?
As we all know all great powers will fall. When the US gets "replaced" will the next power treat the world any better?
Well, maybe I'm wrong about the "efficient market" after all. Simmons seems to agree with your $100 oil idea, and he knows a hell of a lot more than I do...
The collapse would allow for a rebirth of America and hopefully a positive one as cube pointed out. I think that the democracy was formed here was almost in a way engineered to not work. For a true democracy would never have an imbalance of extreme rich or poor, soft money, lobbyist, and the majority vote would always win! This of course excludes the protection of the minority’s rights which we don't have such a good track record for.
[QUOTE]The U.S. simply has the most efficient system to create prosperity which other nations are quickly copying.[/Quote}
Capitalism has created nothing but lots of rich people that strive to be richer. Furthermore that copying you speak of is a perfect example of the greed of man. Capitalism is all about money and money has a history of corrupting most of what comes in contact with it. Consumerism is an example of this corruption as the few rich propagandize(via the use of the media) the many poor/middle class into basically a limitless consumption of resources which is precisely the reason why we are in this freaking mess in the first place! Looking at it this way don't you think it is more like the beginnings of our end?
On the subject of stockpiling, there might be stock piling some where in the world like China but the USA stockpiles are low and decreasing as this link previously posted shows.
Don’t forget the efficient market hypothesis. If people are aware of the projected shortfall, they will prepare for it and stock up, driving the current price up.
I assume that is an economist's hypothesis but some of the very people that think that the market will always go up and that the market forces will save us originate from a very similar path of thinking. True a plausable argument but it seems less likely given the short amount of time left before we are hit hard. The time/money/energy required to implement such a plan seems daunting but here in the US it isn't "what plan do we have for peak oil" it is "whether it(Peak Oil!) Exist or not!"
I was typing this:(With recent news of the US could accept the Kyoto protocol might lead to something other than hot air. This could develop into an actual international plan to deal with both of the energy and global warming crises. Will it come in time is the question.
) but I changed my mind when I read this
After crude surged through $60 a barrel last week, nervous investors were pinning their hopes on a build-up in US oil-stocks to depress prices in the coming months.
But Simmons believes surging demand will keep prices bubbling well above $50. 'We could be at $100 by this winter. We have the biggest risk we have ever had of demand exceeding supply. We are now just about to face up to the biggest crisis we have ever had,' he said.
(more at link)
also check out
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1519782,00.html
which says
Saudi Arabia is running out of oil reserves, and we should put ourselves on a 'war footing' to prepare for a future without the black gold, according to a new book by Texan oil banker Matt Simmons.
(more at link)
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