PO may lead to false victory for emission reductions

Repent

As oil peaks and then starts down the path to irrevocable decline, world carbon emissions may drop off somewhat as there is less oil being burned.

We should guard ourselves- This drop off in carbon emissions will likely be viewed by politicians, greens and others as countries having success in meeting their emission reduction targets- but this is not the case. In fact this will likely only be a temporary drop till people start to switch to oil alternatives like coal or even wood- which have higher carbon contents.

Can you imagine the impact of a winter heating oil shortage in the American mid-west and north-east at the height of winter? Imagine the majority of people in this region deal with this by switching to burning wood in their fireplaces. The pollution effects of 80 million people suddenly throwing another log on the fire would be immediate and catastrophic.

A short term dip in world carbon emissions should instead be seen as the smoking gun- that the world has indeed surpassed peak oil!!

Pablo2079 · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:57 am Post subject:

Actually, the decrease in oil will most likely be met with an increase in the use of coal. If this comes to pass, the emissions will actually go up tremendously.

Repent · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:01 am Post subject:

Either way- A short drop off of carbon emissions met with sudden dramatically higher emissions or in possible as you have suggested a huge and immediate jump in carbon emissions.

Either- would be the smoking gun to say peak oil has been surpassed. I would bet on the former senario first.

MD · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:35 am Post subject:

damn, I better stock up on my asthma meds.
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MonteQuest · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:21 am Post subject:

Already discussed at length here:

Peak Oil, Coal, and Global Warming
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4167.html
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dub_scratch · Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:14 pm Post subject:

Many pollution and noise controls on cars decrease performance & efficiency. Likewise, much of the cost in gasoline is due to emissions standards aimed at reducing toxins in the urban air. As oil becomes expensive there is going to be allot of political pressure to allow the removal of such mitigating procedures and gadgets. People will rip off their catalytic converters, EGR valves and mufflers, and urban air quality in the US will become as bad as some of the 3rd world big cities. The downslope of Hubbert's peak is going to be anything but a environmentalist dream.

That's another reason that we in America must end the car culture as a positive response to oil depletion. The costs of keeping it will increase more than just the costs of fuel.