Wasn't demand supposed to exceed supply during 4th quarter?

AmericanEmpire · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 14, 2005 Posts: 497

I remember reading something about the oil demand exceeding supply during the 4th quarter of this year and how was the gap going to be filled.

Now the question I have to ask is: I know we are running on reserves right now because of the hurricane damage. But would we have had a supply problem even without those hurricanes?

Did the hurricanes and releasing of oil from the SPR's and importing gas from Europe mask what was going to be a shortage anyway. I'm just trying to figure out the big picture here.

FairMaiden

Thats a great question - I'd like to know myself. I wonder about the inventory of oil tho. Isn't the volume different at different temps? So when we say 1 barrel of oil - is that barrel some standard?

linlithgowoil

demand for oil has dropped. price actually does has a big impact on demand for oil, it is not inelastic. it is to a degree, but there is a hell of a lot of demand that can be erased by high prices firstly.

Cynus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 607

I'd love to see a chart of country by country consumption numbers. Has oil consumtion in third world countries gone down significantly due to high prices this year? If so, I suppose you could say that supply did not meet demand and the reason we still have plenty of oil in western countries is that we outbid them for the limited supply.

WebHubbleTelescope · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 08, 2004 Posts: 911

Unlike supply, demand is really unknowable and immeasurable. Think about it; how would you ever measure demand other than indirectly by a reduction in consumption?

strider3700

joewp

UIUCstudent01 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 10, 2005 Posts: 894

aahala · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 03, 2005 Posts: 954

LadyRuby

May be some shortages toward the end of the year, according to some oil companies.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/home/story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=782352

Antimatter

According to Simmons demand was meant to exceed supply by 2-4mb/d 4th quarter. The DOOM keeps getting postponed. Razz

_________________
"Production of useful work is limited by the laws of thermodynamics, but the production of useless work seems to be unlimited."

savethehumans · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 20, 2004 Posts: 1541

Notice how gas prices in the USA have dropped? Watch it stay that way through December. Then, come January, there's gonna be more financial worries for people than just Christmas gift-buying credit card bills!

Big Thanksgiving sale netted me a $20 electric blanket. Gas heater this winter? WHAT gas heater this winter? Laughing

Russian_Cowboy

Russia has bumped up its oil production by 0.7% in October wrt. September. This means an extra 70 000 barrels a day appearing in the markets in a matter of a month.

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3448 Location: Maine

People's oil burners have only just started to burn fuel. People will start to fill them up again. That will draw down stocks and drive prices up. It happens every year. I'm not sure when the top price comes, but it's somewhere around mid-winter. As always those who plan least will pay the highest prices. I talked to people who have already been buying five and ten gallons of off-road diesel to burn in their oil burners. We are only at the beginning of the winter heating season. Lots of possibility for problems yet. They may not happen in the fourth quarter of 2005, but there is still the beginning of 2006 to go.

Wait until the Midwest runs out of natural gas pressure. I hope it doesn't happen until March or April if at all. Then people don't freeze, they are just inconvenienced. A cold winter could do that. I hope we don't have one.

Antimatter