In respect of proven reserves, Peak oil is not far away. Numbers vary but, on average, it is said that the peak will occur in about 40 years from now. This peak could be postponed by 3 things:

1. Finding new reserves - which is becoming increasingly more difficult.

2. A rise in the recovery factory: rise in production. Only 30% of present oil is currently being produced; because of technical reasons, the rest remains below ground. Aramco recently claimed to have developed the technology to raise the recovery factor to 70%.

3. Substitution. Another aspect of technical development is that people are now able to create oil and ethanol (which can be mixed with regular fuel) from sugar, grain and palm oil. This development has already resulted in extreme price increases in these commodity classes.