Based on its own alternative set of internally compatible assumptions, each scenario can be constructed with due attention to the associated economic and cultural constraints. These assumptions drive the values shown for each data series. We can then assign a probability value to each scenario we construct. High probability scenarios give us a clue to the future of the oil market.

After constructing several alternative scenarios, it became abundantly clear they all produced results that were strikingly similar. Every scenario produced higher rates of inflation and unemployment with declining GDP. The only real difference was in the timing and degree of severity.