Looking forward, what is the strategy for a Peak Oil world, if not for a post-Peak Oil world? Strategic thinking can look forward and identify a profound problem, as worldwide production of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas hits a peak, bumps along a plateau and then commences an irreversible decline. But what comes next? Exactly. What comes next? The strategic question is, What is the desired end state?


Here is where the strategic planning has to occur. Is the crux of the problem going to be simply “not enough oil supply,” and thus arises the need to find a substitute for, say, gasoline that is now derived from oil? This is one form of strategic planning, albeit rather linear, just extrapolating the past oil age into the future and attempting to reinvent what no longer will exist. This is the kind of thinking and visions embedded in grandiose plans for massive programs to create liquid fuels from plants, or from a set of coal-to-liquid processes. Yes, some of these technologies will work and, if constructed to scale, produce liquid fuels to substitute for what will no longer be available from oil. But will they successfully and sustainably reinvent the past, and carry the past forward into the future? Don’t count on it.

Or is the crux of the problem going to be “too much demand” for nonexistent (in the future) traditional energy sources, thus creating the circumstances for what is euphemistically called “demand destruction?” What is the strategic plan for this scenario? Peak Oil is real, of course, and so are market mechanisms. Less oil availability on world markets will translate into higher prices for the substance. And as the price of oil rises, some elements of demand will simply go away. (Changing demand will be an very inelastic process, to be sure, but go away the demand will.)

To illustrate the point, for this current moment it is the poor people of the world, those without the $64.00 or so to pay for a barrel of oil, who must do without. For these souls, the oil age has ended in the past tow or three years. Eventually, the working classes will feel the pinch and they too will exit the oil age. Then it will be the turn of the lower middle classes. And eventually,…well, you get the picture. It is just a question of time. Strategically, people can think about these things. But can individuals, can businesses, can governments, and can nations strategically “plan” their way around this impending dilemma?