However, as we get closer to the times when the real troubles stemming from the decline in oil availability begin, a broad outline of what could happen is starting to emerge. Throw in some logical deductions and a fragmentary insight or two starts to emerge.


First the overall magnitude of a swift transition from oil and natural gas to other, less plentiful, forms of energy is almost certain to be a very big problem. Most commentators on life with diminishing supplies of oil conclude it will take decades to transition our lifestyles to those of a more sustainable civilization and that there are some very hard times ahead.

Many commentators now have noted that the speed at which our oil supplies diminish will have much to do with how tough the situation becomes. Slow depletion would give us a one-time opportunity to “make other arrangements” while rapid depletion screams “Gotterdammerung.”

Among the recent insights into what is about to happen is the likelihood that the major oil-importing counties, especially the United States, will have to contend with “peak exports” as well as oil depletion. This means that no matter what the rate world oil production declines — 4, 5, 6 or more percent a year — the importing countries will have to contend with a rate of decline far worse due to the inability to find oil available for import.

The implication here is that we are going to have rapidly falling oil and gas imports no matter what happens to world oil production. Indeed there is evidence that world oil exports are already falling and that the importers are starting to live off of their stockpiles — a situation that will not last for long.