Global Oil Demand

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The world currently consumes about 30 billion barrels of oil per year, and the growth rate of consumption is approximately 1.3%, according to the BP Review of World Energy. This is approximately the same rate of growth as the global population.

However, the global oil demand, and more importantly demand growth, are not evenly distributed.

The United States, with approximately 5% of the global population consumes approximately 25% of the world's oil supply. Per capita oil consumption in the US is about 24 barrels per year, compared to a global average of about 4 barrels per year.

China's oil consumption is on the order of 1.5 barrels per capita per year, but the growth rate of consumption in China is on the order of 9% per year, despite the fact that their domestic oil production is only growing at a rate of about 2%. China is expected to be increasingly reliant on imports to maintain their rate of growth. If the current trajectory is able to continue, China will consume as much oil as the US by the year 2020.

Similarly India, with the world's largest population, is increasing its consumption at the rate of 3% per year, about twice the global average, and about twice the rate of its internal production.

Demand growth in exporting nations such as Mexico (6%) and Iran (5%) due to their young and fast growing populations will cause these two nations to cease being exporters of oil sometime within the next decade.

All told, the Energy Information Administration predicts that global energy demand is expected to reach 118 million barrels per day by 2030. This means that global supply will be expected to reach that level in order to sufficiently supply the market.

However, for the past several years, the growth in energy supply has been insufficient to consistently keep up with global oil demand. This much is indisputable, whether the global production peak has been reached or not.

If the Peak Oil theory is correct, and global production goes into permanent decline, this will conceptually lead to a situation of even more increased competition for the remaining oil resources, with serious ramifications for pricing, energy management by the major consuming and producing nations, and chronic shortages or worse on the part of the impoverished nations around the world.

http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/India/Oil.html http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/06/30/MNGAAJN9JG1.DTL http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/01/dc93e2c3-0923-4575-84e9-808c49eeb513.html