Global Oil Production
From PeakoilWiki
"Production", as defined by the oil industry, is the process of extracting the crude oil from various deposits. This process can be broken down into two parts: "discovery", which is the process of locating the deposits, and then extraction, which is the process of actually drilling into the deposit and withdrawing the oil.
The relationship (amount and timing) between oil discoveries and oil production is one of the key issues in the field of Peak Oil. Once the oil is discovered, the individual oil field can be "produced", that is, the oil extracted for use. Typically there is delay between the discovery of a field and the time it reaches full production.
Hubbert noticed that for an individual oil field, the amount of oil extracted increased in proportion to the amount of effort exerted in drilling, but reached a "peak" when about half of the oil was extracted from the deposit. At this point, the field goes into irreversible decline, despite whatever efforts are made to prolong the life of the field. The "production curve" from an oil field could be modeled mathematically using the logistic equation. He theorized that because of the central limit theorem, the production profile of of a continent, or even the world, would be the sum of all of the individual field production curves, and the peak would occur when about half of the original oil deposits were remaining, and then go into decline.
In the case of the US lower 48 states, Hubbert noted that the shape of the discovery curve and the shape of the production curve were similar, but there was a roughly 40 year offset. Based on the time lag between discoveries and production, and also based on the mathematical modelling techniques that suggested that the US oil production would start to decline at or near the time that 50% of the discovered deposits had been extracted, Hubbert audaciously theorized (in 1957) that the US production curve would peak in 1970.
In fact, this is precisely what happened.
Hubbert further theorized that the global production curve would follow roughly the same shape as the global discovery curve, with a time delay, and that global oil production would start to decline when about half of the oil deposits had been extracted. He predicted that this would occur at or near the year 2000.
The actual global production curve is pictured below. Current oil production is about 30 billion barrels of oil per year.
The proponents of the Peak Oil theory believe that based on the global discovery history, and also based on mathematical modelling techniques of the type used by Hubbert, global oil production is near or possibly beyond its peak, and about to go into irreversible decline.
The detractors of the theory usually do not question the fundamental concept of whether or not the peak will occur, but the timing: The two main counter-arguments are that discoveries and production are influenced by economic and political issues, and are not well modeled mathematically, nor are they particularly limited by geology, and also, that technological advances in oil production will allow extended production of existing oil deposits without the need for discoveries at the same rate. As a result, the detractors believe that the peak will be delayed 10-30 years and will not occur until the 2020-2040 time frame. Also it is argued that alternate technologies and substitutes will reduce the negative effects of the peak as it occurs.
