Impacts of Peak Oil
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Speculation about the ramifications of Peak Oil is one of the central issues of the debate, and the effects depend entirely on the timing of the peak, and the rate of decline in supply on the downside. There is a range of opinions about the severity and timing of the decline.
Optimists, like Daniel Yergin of CERA, believe that the peak will not occur until 2030 at least, and oil production will remain relatively constant for several years after the peak, (the "bumpy plateau"), due to improved ability to recover oil from non-conventional resources, or by switching to alternates and substitutes.
http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-821_ITM
At the other extreme is Richard Duncan, who has proposed the 'Olduvai Theory", which is that since petroleum products have fueled food production, medicine, and other essentials of modern life, a decline in the supply of oil will literally cause civilization to collapse, and the population of the Earth to decline to the point at which it was before the "Oil Age", which is somewhere between 500 million and one billion people.
Between these two extremes, proponents of the theory suggest the following additional potential consequences:
a. Potential economic problems, ranging from a stagnant economy (due to lack of fossil fuel to enable economic expansion) to a depression caused by the prospects of a shrinking fuel supply. Since economic growth is directly dependent on fossil fuel consumption, the entire capitalistic system is vulnerable to an environment in which business must make do with less energy.
b. Resource wars, such as now being fought in Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan, as governments try to control supplies, particularly under the sands of the middle east.
c. Mass migration of populations from one region to another as nations run out of resources, driving their populations to leave in order to survive. Number one on this list is Mexico, who will become a net importer of oil within ten years, and who depends on oil exports for 60% of their national budget.
d. Problems with food supplies: The modern agriculture system has been described as a process to turn petroleum into food, and some estimates are that up to 10 calories of fossil fuels are used to produce each calorie of food in the US, for whom most food is produced and distributed by industrial farming techniques. As the supply of oil diminishes, particularly in light of pressure on the grain crops from the production of ethanol, the potential exists for food shortages or a collapse of the industrial farming system. Also, the current food production and distribution system is heavily dependent on truck transportation,and sudden fuel shortages have the potential to cause problems with the food distribution system.
e. Collapse of the electrical grid
f. Water issues: Particularly in the western US, supplies of clean water, and treatment of sewage and liquid waste is 100% dependent on energy use.
g. Dieoff in impoverished nations: Rising energy prices will first be felt by impoverished nations who cannot afford to import oil. This is already taking place in sub-Saharan Africa, and this has potential to spread to nations like Zimbabwe, the Philipines, and Bangladesh, all of which are marginally able to support their populations.
h. Increased use of coal, biomass and other fuels, caused by a decrease in oil supply, will lead to more pollution, and accelerate global climate change.
i. Political turmoil: As the above problems start to occur, the rise of despotic governments in an effort to keep control, widespread civil unrest, failure of governments and nations, and loss of personal security in many areas.
