bratticus wrote:TheDude wrote:You're obviously not a fervent leftist. Nationalize the oil companies and have them refine product at a loss, and Bob's your Utopia. We can then spend the next decade in cheap motoring bliss while transitioning to wholly renewable sources. Sound like fun? Or a basic account of a round of some RTS computer game like Civilization.
You are missing the point. In order to have $220 oil you need businesses that can afford that price.
In 2008 businesses went into default at $120 oil. The loss of demand causes the price to fall.
I was being sarcastic. In these computer strategy games you can be an autocrat the likes of which the world has never seen; obviously we don't see that in reality, but you'd never know to listen to Al Gore and his 10 Year Plan for ridding ourselves of the curse of fossil fuels; or Rush Limbaugh and his blather about the US having twice the petroleum reserves of the rest of the world combined, to cite an example from either US political Wing. These two have millions of adepts who take these scenarios as gospel, as if market economies were just some inconvenience to handwave away. Or alternately, they have sources to back up any scheme. Same difference.
There's a lot of potential in carpooling, you would have grousing and occasional incidents with punchouts at first, then people would shrug their shoulders and carry on. Read up on how Iran is holding up at the moment - you have huge lines at stations but people persevere. It isn't the end of the world.
Of course the US is much more dependent on consumers having access to vehicles to tool around and spend $$$$ at brick-and-mortar shops, so it would have that much more impact on our economy to have sustained high prices or spot shortages. Also people would demand action this instant, if shortages appeared. This is the aspect of this matter that's very hard to predict in advance; so many were convinced that $200/bbl would become a new normal in 2008. Would that have been the case sans credit crisis? Did said crisis have a greater impact on petroleum demand than the high prices themselves?
Real peak oil - production reaching its asymptote and declining - will be a singular event, beyond which what will transpire is difficult to model, as there are many more variables at work than most suppose.