[bratticus]

Aluminium processors in China asked to brace power cuts
CommodityOnline / June 1, 2011

Aluminum processors in China have received notices from energy suppliers asking them to brace for power cuts as the country faces electricity shortages this summer, potentially heralding disruption across the industry.

Shutdowns of fabricators, which process the ingots made by smelters into products, may cut demand for the refined metal. Smelters in the world's largest aluminum producer may be next in line to get notices that their power supplies may be interrupted. ...

[bratticus]

China, not U.S., key to global oil demand
Jeff Rubin / Globe and Mail Blog / June 1, 2011

Past power outages have bumped up China’s diesel consumption by as much as another 600,000 barrels/day once power rationing spurs the use of back up diesel generators. And this summer’s power shortages could be bigger than 2004, which temporarily blacked out huge swaths of the Chinese economy.

[bratticus]

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region
Reporting by Jim Bai and Tom Miles; Editing by Jacqueline / Reuters / June 2, 2011

Following are details on summer power shortage forecasts,
expected maximum loads, supply capacity in each region, as
reported by local grid operators, local governments or official
media.

All numbers are in gigawatts (GW).

Code: Select all


   
Province   maximum deficit  maximum load   supply or generation

                                               capacity   
CENTRAL CHINA   
  Jiangxi      2.2-2.4             14.5              12   
  Henan          4.85                               50.7^     
  Hunan          4.0                16              11.8    
  Chongqing      2.1                8.5*            11.6^   
EAST CHINA    
  Zhejiang      3.5-5.0             50              57.2^   
  Anhui         2.5                                 29.3^   
  Jiangsu       11.0                69               59   
  Shanghai    0.6-1.1            28-28.5             27.4   
SOUTH CHINA*   
  Guangdong     4.0-6.5             73              70.9^   
  Guizhou      1.5-2.0              12              32.8^   
  Hainan        0.2                 2.3 -2.5         3.9^   
  Guangxi                           13.5-15.4       25.2^    
  Yunnan                            11-12           36.2^   
NORTH CHINA   
  Beijing      over 3.0                              6.3^   
  Shandong       1.0                52              62.7^   
  Hebei          3.0                25-26.6         23.6   
  Tianjin        1.5                11.4            10.9^   
----------------------------------------------------------   
  Total        44.85-49.85   


^ total power generating capacity at the end of 2010. It
differs from supply capacity that includes delicate power
supplies from other regions or excludes delicate generation for
other regions. In addition, different types of generators,
nuclear, thermal, hydro or wind, have different utilisation
rates and thus represent different effective supply capacity.

* Forecasts are for the second quarter.

So far the 49.85 giga-Watt total is the highest loss estimate I've seen anywhere.

[bratticus]

China stresses need to meet reduced energy use targets set for 2011-15
Platts / June 2, 2011

China's state-owned enterprises need to meet an overall objective of reducing energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by about 16% from the 2010 level in the five years to 2015, China's regulatory watchdog State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said Wednesday.

"State enterprises must assess the situation and tackle the issue, and they must implement effective measures in order to achieve the energy conservation targets," according to a statement by Huang Shuhe, vice chairman of SASAC, which is both a regulator and shareholder of the country's largest state companies.

... For the 12th Five-Year plan that runs between 2011 and 2015, the country has set a target of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16-17% from 2010 levels.

[Fishman]

Well we sure as H#LL know Obama and the Dems won't be riding in to save anyone, the Dem Senate hasn't produced a budget in over 700 days, and the pres said he wouldn't even try. Yep must be BUUSSHH's fault.

China has this nasty habit of self cleansing, calling it some kind of revolution

[misterno]

Coal imports by China is breaking records due to more need by coal plants. There is 1 new coal plant opened every 2 weeks in China so go figure what the future coal imports will look like

China's LNG imports is exploding as well, I am guessing it is because power from coal plants is not enough so they are utilizing the the 2nd least costly energy product.

LNG not coal will be the future energy product that China will use in the future due to coal's environmental effects. But it may take 10-20 years before we see LNG in China take over coal.

[bratticus]

Chinese Drought Drives Demand for Diesel and Heating Oil
Lane Nichols / HeatingOil.com / June 3, 2011

This week’s US oil inventory figures showed big builds for crude and gasoline but further draw-downs in distillates, which include heating oil and diesel. So why is demand persisting for heating fuel when temperatures are warming? The answer may be linked to diesel demand and severe drought conditions on the other side of the world.

As previously reported on HeatingOil.com, heating oil and diesel are almost identical in physical composition. But as diesel in not traded on commodity markets, heating oil contracts are often bought and sold as a proxy for diesel by investors and hedgers.

... China is suffering its worst drought in 50 years. Severe resulting water shortages are forcing authorities to prioritize water for human consumption rather than to power massive hydro-electricity plants. The upshot is warnings of power shortages this summer in the Yangtze delta, which supports 400 million people with 40 percent of China’s economic activity, futuresmag.com reported.

... in China, diesel demand is expected to rocket as millions of businesses and homes switch to oil-burning generators to replace electricity. The economic power house has already halted diesel exports to help bolster domestic supplies. This has the potential to create shortages elsewhere, boosting diesel demand and making heating oil more attractive to investors, perhaps explaining why distillate stocks remain low.

[bratticus]

Mongolia faces critical diesel shortage
By Simon Rabinovitch and Leslie Hook / FT / May 27, 2011

Mongolia is running critically low on diesel after Russian deliveries failed to arrive, a development that threatens to crimp mining activity in the resource-rich country.

The Mongolian government has ordered a temporary halt of diesel supplies to some miners and has dipped into its emergency stockpile, according to Mongolian state media. In the capital of Ulan Bator, public bus fares were raised by 33 per cent.

The shortage reflects how oil supply troubles in Russia are spreading to neighbouring countries after Moscow recently slapped a prohibitive duty on petrol exports. China this month also banned diesel exports as stubbornly high crude prices threaten domestic supplies.

... Faced by fuel shortages of its own, Russia, the world’s largest oil producer, raised a fuel export tax by 44 per cent this month. Vladimir Putin, prime minister, has criticised Russia’s oil groups, saying there was no lack of oil but that companies had restricted supplies to keep prices high. Mongolian President Elbegdorj will visit Russia from May 30 on a prescheduled official visit.

Diesel Shortage Forces Railway to Cancel Most of its Travel Schedules
Written by P.Shinebayar / UB Post / June 3, 2011

Following acute diesel shortages in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar Railways has suspended travel of 11 freight-trains and 4 shuttle-trains for its local destinations. Destinations affected were Bor-Undur, Zuunbayan, Sharyn Gol and Nalaikh provinces. ...

[bratticus]

SouthGobi facing fuel shortages in Mongolia
Reuters / May 10, 2011

Coal miner SouthGobi Resources Ltd (SGQ.TO) warned on Tuesday that it is facing fuel shortages and may have to curtail operations following Russia's recent move to curb fuel exports.

... SouthGobi said its fuel supplier has claimed force majeure and will be unable to meet contracted fuel supply this month. The company said it has managed to secure an agreement with a new supplier to offset some of the shortfall. ...

South Gobi fuel supplier claims force majeur
SteelGuru / May 19, 2011

Russia, the primary supplier of fuel to Mongolia, has substantially cut fuel exports to Mongolia for the month of May. The issue is related to the Russian fuel deficit situation, and the fact that Russia has generally curtailed fuel exports.

Media reports have indicated that Mongolian fuel importers have ordered 84,000 tonnes of fuel from Rosneft, the Russian export fuel supplier, for May but will only be allocated 10,000 tonnes. SouthGobi's fuel supplier has claimed Force Majeure and will be unable to meet contracted fuel supply this month.

SouthGobi currently has approximately 722,000 litres of diesel fuel available on site at its Ovoot Tolgoi operation or already in transit to site. The Company has also entered into an agreement with an alternative supplier to purchase an additional 2.8 million litres of diesel fuel. This combined fuel supply will allow the mine to operate for approximately 45 days under normal operations, or around three months if operations are partially curtailed to preserve fuel. ...

New York headlines
FT / May 27, 2011

Mongolia is running critically low on diesel after Russian deliveries failed to arrive, a development that threatens to crimp mining activity in the resource-rich country, the FT reports. The Mongolian government has ordered a temporary halt of diesel supplies to some miners and has dipped into its emergency stockpile, according to Mongolian state media. In the capital of Ulan Bator, public bus fares were raised by 33 per cent.

[Sys1]

They should buy e cat from Rossi and Forcardi to havé infinité energy for free and stop polluting thé atmosphere.

[bratticus]

Isn't it amusing how a place that didn't get the diesel from Russia that it normally does and has come to expect and rely on is also a place of "ethnic unrest"? Reminds me of Egypt which hit its domestic peak oil, losing all income from exports and falling into economic chaos from which arises social and political chaos.


If you are looking for the Chinese "arab spring" (or whatever) look no further. Mainstream media might label this "ethnic cleansing" but it didn't start back during the boom years for industry, it waited for the times of energy collapse because that's what it's really about: energy which is required for food production and all worth fighting for.

Inner Mongolia beset by ethnic conflict
By Jaime FlorCruz / CNN / June 2, 2011

There is high tension in Inner Mongolia, China's strategic frontier region, where deaths of two Mongolians have triggered rare street protests.

"rare" as in "didn't happen until the energy crunch".

Human Rights / Military Control
Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center via Tolerance.ca / June 5, 2011

In response to the week-long widespread protests by Mongolians in Southern (Inner) Mongolia, Chinese authorities declared martial law last week in major cities of the region including the capital Hohhot, eastern cities of Shiliin-hot, Ulaanhad and Tongliao, and western city of Dongsheng. Fearing that mass protests might spread across the region and possibly across China, Chinese authorities declared that the region is “in a war-like state” (see attached “Explanation of Reason of Sealing off Schools”).

The most amusing part is that Russian-diesel-deprived, drought-stricken, hydropower-energy-crisis mode China is now losing Mongolian coal production too.

China limits projects in Inner Mongolia
UPI / June 3, 2011

The Chinese government Friday announced it will limit projects in Inner Mongolia, where tension remains after protests over coal mining activities.

The announcement said the government would limit projects in environmentally vulnerable areas in Inner Mongolia. The protests erupted following the death last month of a Mongolian farmer-herder on his land after he was hit by a truck.

Will the crunching sound that China makes when it hits the bottom after this energy production free-fall drown out the sounds of the voices of the newscasters babbling about this being an ethic problem, even for a blessed moment?

[bratticus]

CHINA: Mongolian students locked in
University World News / June 5, 2011

Authorities in the Inner Mongolia region of China have closed the gates of major universities and colleges in the wake of protests sparked by the death of a herder at the hands of a mining truck driver, reports Radio Free Asia.

Thousands of students at major schools, colleges, and universities in the regional capital Hohhot have been under heavy guard by riot police and paramilitary forces, according to a New York-based rights group. "Students were closely monitored by their teachers and security personnel inside the campuses," the Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Centre said in an e-mailed statement.

Local sources confirmed the report. "Starting from [Sunday], we haven't been able to leave campus," said a teacher at the Inner Mongolia Normal University in the capital. Following instructions from 'higher authorities', the university posted an 'important notice' on 30 May warning teachers and students of all high schools and colleges not to leave their institutions. ...

[bratticus]

Gas Power Plants Lacking Supply, While China Being in Electricity Shortage
Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor / June 5, 2011

... While widespread electricity supply shortage in China has blown some ripples in other energy markets, in particular, resulting in extra diesel demand for plant backup power generation, the natural gas market has received little affected [sic]. There seem no extra gas supply sources and no incentives for gas-fired power plants to raise plant operations to make possible contributions to help relieve electricity supply shortage.

... In fact, gas-fired power plants entirely relying on natural gas supplies from gas transmission trunk lines and LNG import terminals have never been operating properly since the very beginning. When gas supply quotas being allocated to power plants are limited, they are even squeezed by rapidly rising gas requirements of other sectors particularly residents and other city gas consumers. In addition, higher gas costs and strictly controlled domestic electricity fed-to-grid prices have put majority of gas-fired power companies into operating losses. In an estimate, gas-fired power plants in China are operating at below one third of the designed capacity on average throughout the country. As a result, there are no extra gas supply sources and no incentives either for gas-fired power plants to raise plant operations to make possible contributions to help relieve electricity supply shortage.

"gas-fired power plants in China are operating at below one third of the designed capacity on average" do they mean "at 66% of designed capacity", or is that "at less than 33% of designed capacity?"

[bratticus]

Power price rise won't dim shortfalls
By Richard Fu / Shanghai Daily / June 6, 2011

CHINA'S latest power price increase for industrial and commercial users may help ease what could be the nation's worst energy shortages on record, but many analysts said it's far from a panacea for a persistent problem that's likely to bedevil the nation for years to come.

The government raised retail power prices for non-residential users in 15 provinces by about 3 percent this month - the first hike since November 2009 - to spur power production and curb demand from energy-guzzling industries.

The wholesale prices charged by generators to distributors were also raised an average 5 percent in three provinces after being pushed up in 12 other provinces in April, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets energy prices in China.

The moderate price increases may spur the utilization rates of power plants but probably aren't enough to offset higher coal prices. Thermal power plants comprise more than 80 percent of China's electricity production, and many are deep in the red because of spikes in the global price of coal.

China's five major state power groups, including Huaneng and Guodian, lost more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.54 billion) in their thermal power businesses in the first four months of this year.

"The tariff increases will ease our operational pressure to some degree but cannot fundamentally reverse the serious impact of tight supply and increases in the price of coal," Changyuan Electric Power Corp said in a stock exchange statement. ...

[bratticus]

Chinese cobalt output hit by power shortage
Metal Bulletin Ltd / June 03, 2011

Chinese cobalt producers are cutting production due to the spreading power shortage, which is expected to worsen in the coming summer and may help underpin domestic prices

Chinese cobalt producers are cutting production due to the spreading power shortage, which is expected to worsen in the coming summer and may help underpin domestic prices. In Hunan province, where many metal smelters are suffering from power cuts, a major cobalt tetroxide producer told MB it could only operate at two-thirds of its capacity. "This is painful, we can't...

[bratticus]

Lead Smelters in China May Cut Output as Demand Slows, Regulation Tightens
By Glenys Sim / Bloomberg / June 3, 2011

Lead smelters in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, may idle capacity as demand slows amid a power shortage and as the nation clamps down on polluting units, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. ...

... Record Power Shortage

An electricity shortfall this summer may be as much as 40 gigawatts, surpassing the 2004 record, according to State Grid Corp. of China. Power prices for industrial and commercial users in 15 provinces were increased on June 1, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.

[Lead acid] Battery makers in China have shut factories after the government tightened measures to curb pollution following reports of poisoning incidents in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. Zhejiang Haijiu Battery Co., a maker of lead-acid batteries for motorcycles, stopped production on April 29 after it was found to be improperly disposing of lead, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said May 18.

Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.’s units in Hangzhou halted output after the local government ordered battery companies to suspend operation for inspection of lead pollution, the company said in a statement to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on May 17.

Battery Makers

Plants in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan and Henan provinces have suspended production for about two weeks, Xu Hong, head of the lead-acid battery branch at the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, said on May 30. Battery-makers account for about 80 percent of the country’s lead demand. ...

[bratticus]

Power shortage boosts diesel
Shanghai Daily / May 18, 2011

China may face a summer shortage of 30 gigawatts as supply lags behind demand growth, the China Electricity Council said on April 29. Peak power shortage may reach 50 gigawatts next year and even exceed 70 gigawatts in 2013, Xinhua reported, citing Su Shengxin, sales director at State Grid Corp of China, the country's dominant grid operator.

[bratticus]

Power Crisis Forces Halt to Diesel Exports
CRI / May 14, 2011

China will halt diesel exports to guarantee domestic supply of the fuel as electricity outages continue to put pressure on the country's power supplies.

China will suspend diesel exports in the near future, other than to the Hong Kong and Macao special administration regions, China's top economic planning body said in a notice on Friday.

The National Development and Reform Commission also called for increased production of oil byproducts and ordered businesses not to hoard petrochemicals for speculation and price gouging.

The notice came as the country's rapidly expanding power shortage problem faces peak summer demand at the same time as domestic supplies of refined oil products run low.

"It is highly likely that China will suffer another diesel shortage if the fuel continues to be exported," said He Wei, a senior analyst at BOCOM International Holding Co, an investment bank headquartered in Hong Kong.

"The widespread electricity outages may trigger higher diesel consumption as more companies tend to use diesel power generators to sustain production during summer," said Zhu Fang, vice-director of the information and marketing department at the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation.

The federation predicted earlier that in the first quarter of 2011 China's apparent diesel consumption, which includes domestic production and imports but excludes exports, was likely to rise by up to 15 percent from a year earlier to 41.57 million metric tons.

... It is hard to predict when the government will lift the exports ban, especially when the prospects for global oil prices are uncertain, analysts said.

[bratticus]

South African Coal Has First Gain in Four Weeks on Increased China Buying
By Alistair Holloway, editing by Claudia Carpenter / Bloomberg / June 6, 2011

... China faces a power shortfall that may extend to 40 gigawatts this summer, surpassing the country’s 2004 record, according to State Grid Corp. of China. Eleven provinces and municipalities have been rationing electricity since May, the National Development and Reform Commission has said. Importers of should bolster overseas purchases, the NDRC said June 1, and the government has increased power prices for businesses and farmers for the first time in more than a year to curb demand.

“Asian demand is picking up,” McCloskey analyst Darren Malone said today by phone. “It’s not so much India, but China” because of the domestic power shortages, he said. ...

That story pairs so well with this one:

Coal exports slip in May due to rail maintenance
Helmo Preuss / SA Business / June 6, 2011

Richards Bay bulk exports, which are mainly coal, declined by 12.5% in May due to the closure for maintenance of the coal railway line from Mpumalanga, Transnet National Ports Authority data showed.

The Mpumalanga line was closed from May 23 onwards, as Transnet Freight Rail carried out necessary maintenance to prevent derailments.

... Coal exports have only shown a 0.1% year-on-year increase, while iron ore exports grew by 14.6% and other exports soared by 37%, as farmers exported their surplus.

Part of the problem has been cable theft on the Mpumalanga-Richards Bay coal line, which has resulted in derailments and other disruptions to traffic.

These disruptions have meant that coal and other bulk export shipments out of Richards Bay have yet to exceed the 78.2 million tons record achieved way back in 2003.

The majority of bulk exports go to Asia as China, India and Japan require South African coal and iron ore to feed their steel mills and thermal coal power stations. ...

[bratticus]

40 000 evacuated in China floods
News24 / June 6, 2011

... A flood hit Wangmo county in the south-western province of Guizho on Sunday following several days of heavy rain, leaving 13 people missing as local authorities evacuated 20 000.

... The Wangmo was running 3m above its normal level on Sunday but had subsided by Monday, the ministry said.

... But the heavy rain brought relief to some parched areas of central China that recorded their worst spring droughts for about 60 years. ...