[Pretorian]

Well, here we are, it's mid-June and therefore, basically, "summer." Still awaiting that $6 gasoline!

You do realize that many exporters will be importers soon and that $ does not really getting stronger day after day?

[SpockLives]

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/03/28/the-real-reason-gas-prices-are-soaring/

the middle class is about to be eviscerated, just like the wealthy want it. They prefer a society of themselves and everyone else in barrios. America about to become Brazil.

And then it was supposed to be $5/gal by Memorial day, and currently its around $3.50 and dropping in my hood.

Another prediction bust...what a surprise. Although I had as much hope as anyone, but those predicting unidirection price movements of commodites are rarely right.

[Lore]

The only certainty in the future is that there will be higher highs and higher lows.

[vision-master]

Gas jumped up $.21 gal yesterday.

[SpockLives]

Gas jumped up $.21 gal yesterday.

Droped $0.17 here. Maybe you are subsidizing fuel prices elsewhere in the country? If so...thanks!

[Pops]

Kind of interesting looking at the EIA page, supply bounced of the bottom of the average range with a lot of help from imported gasoline. Demand is back up to last year.


http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_g ... tml#stocks

[Serial_Worrier]

All this means is $4/gallon is the new floor. $6/gallon coming in the next 2 years for sure and THAT will be the new floor.

[SpockLives]

All this means is $4/gallon is the new floor. $6/gallon coming in the next 2 years for sure and THAT will be the new floor.

Maybe. Back in the summer of 2008 oil was just supposed to keep going up. That didn't work out so well, remember that fall well, it was nirvana for roadtripping.

At the end of the day, I'm hoping for skyrocketing gasoline prices just like everyone else (we all counting on the market to give us what we need, because the politicians won't).

[AirlinePilot]

The important point here is to understand one thing. That one thing is simply put VOLATILITY.

Peak oil and the ramifications surrounding the plateau and ultimate decline off that plateau will be marked by price volatility. We have economic and monetary factors right now which play a part in this. I'd also guess politically there is huge pressure in the US to do anything possible to lower the price of gasoline and keep it somewhere below the highs we have recently seen.

The concerning trend I see is one in which we seem to be making a new "shelf" in price every few years. Each time we hit that shelf the low is higher than the older highs and we become conditioned...boiling frogs if you will....to the new "low" prices.

My personal prediction is that in the not too distant future we retest these local high prices once again and go above them, until it hurts and we adjust again. Last time we "adjusted" I believe US gas prices coasted down to somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.25-2.45/gal.

Anyone think we can get there this time? I hope for it, but right now I am doubting it's possible.

[bratticus]

Well, here we are, it's mid-June and therefore, basically, "summer." Still awaiting that $6 gasoline!

Somebody needs to buy her a calendar with that pretty flower on it too so she can see when summer really starts.

Meanwhile in 2008 an oil price spike was followed by stock market crash. In 2011 we just passed our second (post 2005) oil price spike and the stock crash has started.

Just like Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg said back in 2002-2003 http://youtu.be/-757E56lcqo

[SpockLives]

Just like Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg said back in 2002-2003 http://youtu.be/-757E56lcqo

"Oil production hits this ever declining capacity limit." That was Colin.

Peak oil happened aways back, notice any capacity limit? Looks like up, up and away to me.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/03/i ... -fuel.html
"Oil demand will pick up in parallel to the economy picking up." That was Colin.
Seems like oil demand can go down even while the economy is growing.

http://newsok.com/demand-for-gasoline-i ... le/3565197
"People would be wandering why we are in recession after recession" That was Heinberg.
So far we have had 1. And it took place BEFORE oil prices spiked during peak oil in 2008.



As far as the reliability of those two in that clip, seems like a ouija board would be a better bet.

[bratticus]

Peak oil happened aways back, notice any capacity limit? Looks like up, up and away to me.

full excel workbook from 1965-2010 (almost 2 MB)

Total world oil production in thousand barrels per day and million tonnes

Code: Select all

Year  Barrels Tonnes
2008  82015   3933.7
2009  80278   3831.0
2010  82095   3913.7


Up by 80 from 2008 to 2010 (82095 - 82015 = 80)
Or is that down by 20? (3913.7 - 3933.7 = negative 20)

[SpockLives]

Peak oil happened aways back, notice any capacity limit? Looks like up, up and away to me.

full excel workbook from 1965-2010 (almost 2 MB)

Total world oil production in thousand barrels per day and million tonnes

Code: Select all

Year  Barrels Tonnes
2008  82015   3933.7
2009  80278   3831.0
2010  82095   3913.7


Up by 80 from 2008 to 2010 (82095 - 82015 = 80)
Or is that down by 20? (3913.7 - 3933.7 = negative 20)

You got me. I am a firm believer in peak oil circa 2005, but everyone's definitions and information sources seem to be different. The real problem is a graph like this one because at the end of the day, if you can use it as a transport fuel, and if there is more of it, it really matters, and what you happen to call the commodity, does not.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-l2-kfcKCLMM/TX9Qpz90acI/AAAAAAAABmo/S6gRfK73mMQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-03-15+at+7.40.36+AM.png

[bratticus]

You got me. I am a firm believer in peak oil circa 2005, but everyone's definitions and information sources seem to be different. The real problem is a graph like this one because at the end of the day, if you can use it as a transport fuel, and if there is more of it, it really matters, and what you happen to call the commodity, does not.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-l2-kfcKCLMM/TX9Qpz90acI/AAAAAAAABmo/S6gRfK73mMQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-03-15+at+7.40.36+AM.png

That chart purports to have 2011 IEA, EIA and OPEC data. Are there citations for any sources of that? At least I provide links to sources. For example this EIA chart via economagic:

1. It fits on the screen
2. If you click on it you go back to the source from whence it comes
3. It doesn't make claims about 2011 EIA data showing 89 Mboe/day the way your chart does.

[SpockLives]

That chart purports to have 2011 IEA, EIA and OPEC data. Are there citations for any sources of that?

It is Stuart Sanifords blog, I don't figure he is making it up. Of course there have been recent posts on TOD as well about comparing this info to that info, and why they are different, or getting more different.

3. It doesn't make claims about 2011 EIA data showing 89 Mboe/day the way your chart does.

You got me. I just keep an eye on Stuarts blog on the grounds that as a proto-peaker, he isn't likely to bias numbers high, under any circumstances.

[bratticus]

You got me. I just keep an eye on Stuarts blog on the grounds that as a proto-peaker, he isn't likely to bias numbers high, under any circumstances.

I think the issue is crude vs. total liquids.

I don't like using data about total liquids because I never see the breakdown and condensates do not contain as much energy by volume as crude.

Have you ever seen a chart that says "total metals"? Nobody would stand for it but somehow people don't object to "total liquids".

[Serial_Worrier]

Also don't forget how your food prices are skyrocketing. $7/jar for salsa? You've gotta be kidding me!

[SpockLives]

You got me. I just keep an eye on Stuarts blog on the grounds that as a proto-peaker, he isn't likely to bias numbers high, under any circumstances.

I think the issue is crude vs. total liquids.

That's about what I figured as well.

Have you ever seen a chart that says "total metals"? Nobody would stand for it but somehow people don't object to "total liquids".

Grouped metals aren't the same as crude and condensates. But I understand the point.

[astalavista_b]

You got me. I am a firm believer in peak oil circa 2005, but everyone's definitions and information sources seem to be different. The real problem is a graph like this one because at the end of the day, if you can use it as a transport fuel, and if there is more of it, it really matters, and what you happen to call the commodity, does not.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-l2-kfcKCLMM/TX9Qpz90acI/AAAAAAAABmo/S6gRfK73mMQ/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-03-15+at+7.40.36+AM.png

That chart purports to have 2011 IEA, EIA and OPEC data. Are there citations for any sources of that? At least I provide links to sources. For example this EIA chart via economagic:

1. It fits on the screen
2. If you click on it you go back to the source from whence it comes
3. It doesn't make claims about 2011 EIA data showing 89 Mboe/day the way your chart does.

At your chart, crude oil production seems to be 72.5 million at 2011, however statistical review of world energy report it says 82 million. Which one is true?

For Bp data: http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?ca ... Id=7068481

[Jenab6]

OK. It's summer. Where is gas selling for $6/gallon?