[bratticus]

China Braces Itself for Power Shortages
By KEITH BRADSHER / NYT / June 22, 2011

... Many factories in the country’s export-oriented eastern provinces are already losing electricity from the grid during the daytime for one to three days a week. That forces them to operate at night, run on costly diesel generators or reduce output.

The national grid has given priority to maintaining electricity supplies for residential customers, particularly in cities. But in small towns and rural areas, many homes are also losing power needed to use the more than 100 million air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators and other appliances sold since the start of 2009 with government subsidies aimed at narrowing the gap in the standard of living between cities and the rest of the country.

The official newspaper China Daily reported Tuesday that large office buildings in Shanghai were being asked to turn off their air-conditioning for an hour this summer each time the outdoor temperature exceeded 35 degrees Celsius (94 degrees Fahrenheit). In addition to factory blackouts, nonindustrial businesses like stores will be asked to close in Shanghai when the temperature climbs above 37 degrees Celsius (98.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the newspaper said. ...

[bratticus]

Media watch not easy in a land of black-outs
Fairfax Media / June 21, 2011

... Most recently, the state-owned monopolist has been criticised for gaming the system and causing the electricity black-outs that have crimped industrial production across the country. ...

Bad summer of power shortages threatens China economic growth
Michael Sainsbury / The Australian / June 23, 2011
CHINA'S worst summer of power cuts since 2004 threatens to disrupt the economy and add to inflationary pressures.

Summer power shortages are a regular occurrence in the world's second-largest economy, but a number of provinces, led by the business powerhouse, Shanghai, have introduced rationing for industrial users.

... The key reason behind the central government's inability to control the price of coal is that China has moved from being a self-sufficient coal producer to a net importer of coal. ...

[bratticus]

Analysts Predict Higher Prices for Aluminum
By Michael Montgomery / Aluminum Investing News / June 23, 2011

... Despite high inventories of aluminum in warehouses, the analysts agree that demand growth and a looming supply issues in China will move the price higher.

... China has been struggling with high energy costs. In April the Chinese government capped annual output capacity growth rate for 10 nonferrous metals, including aluminum, at 8 percent in an effort to reign in power usage.

... Power supply issues are a major concern for China this summer. The country is undergoing the worst power cuts since 2004, and has instituted rationing for industrial users. ...

[astalavista_b]

"EIA is currently projecting global oil demand to average 88.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2011, 1.7 million bbl/d higher than in 2010. Of that increment, China alone is expected to account for some 700 thousand bbl/d".

"In short, coal prices have run ahead of electricity prices, causing electricity generators to run at a loss - and thus providing them with a disincentive to produce electricity."

"In an attempt to avert shortfalls, China raised electricity prices to industrial, agricultural, and commercial consumers in at least 15 provinces. Prices to residential customers were left unchanged. While the new rates went into effect on June 1, the China Electricity Council warned of shortages of about 30 gigawatts during the summer of 2011, which implies the potential for significantly increased demand for crude oil and products, as electricity consumers will look to replace state electricity with their own power generation. Already middle distillates (diesel) account for the lion's share of Chinese oil demand (unlike the United States, where gasoline plays that role). One of the consequences of the expected uptick in Chinese oil demand for electricity generation this summer will be to further increase diesel's share of the Chinese demand barrel."

China crisis is ahead, will be talked much this summer.

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

[bratticus]

Is hitting peak coal and gas behind China's economic woes?

China to launch coal industry measures
SteelGuru / June 20, 2011

It is reported that China National Energy Authority is researching protective measures on rare coal resources such as coking coal.

Experts say rare coal resources are different from rare earths, whose prices surged last year after China imposed dramatic restrictions on their export.

... The China Securities Journal reported China is expected to exhaust its high quality coking coal within 50 years if extraction continues apace. ...

But before they exhaust them the rate at which they can extract them will be overtaken by the rate at which they wish to consume them.

Bad summer of power shortages threatens China economic growth
Michael Sainsbury / The Australian / June 23, 2011

... The key reason behind the central government's inability to control the price of coal is that China has moved from being a self-sufficient coal producer to a net importer of coal. ...

The louder they talked about having 50 more years, the more incongruous their accelerating imports appeared.

China's gas imports jump
By Robert M Cutler / Asia Times / June 24, 2011

MONTREAL - China's gas imports jumped nearly a third in May from a year earlier to a record 2.6 billion cubic meters (bcm), according to the country's National Development and Reform Commission, with half delivered by pipeline from Central Asia. The rest was in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). ...

[astalavista_b]

Humanity should find a way to switch its energy demand to renewable as fast as it can do. Since all fossil fuels have an end someday whenever we switch from one of them to other that source will be consumed and will be vanished faster.

[bratticus]

Raining on China's power parade
Keith Bradsher / The New York Times via Fairfax Media / June 24, 2011

HEAVY rains that hit in central China last week will help produce extra hydroelectric power - but not enough to avoid severe electricity shortages this summer, Chinese officials have said.

Many factories in the country's export-oriented eastern provinces are already losing daytime electricity from the grid for one to three days a week, forcing them to operate at night, use costly diesel generators or reduce output. ...

... A larger problem has been electric utilities delaying the completion of new coal-fired plants and operating their existing ones below full capacity to protest against the government's refusal to allow them to raise prices. Those plants represent 73 per cent of the Chinese power generation capacity.

Coal prices have surged in the past two years but, to fight inflation, the government has allowed only minimal rises in electricity prices paid by homes and businesses.

[bratticus]

Chinese power plant losses add up
PennWell Corporation / June 23, 2011

The China Electricity Council (CEC) has said coal fired power plants operated by the country’s five major power generation groups - China Huaneng, China Datang, China Guodian, China Huadian and China Power Investment - lost close to $2bn in the first five months of 2011.

A senior official from one of the groups said higher electricity prices had not helped power plants because coal prices increased substantially after the government raised power prices. ...

[bratticus]

China monthly: Power shortages hit chemical prices
Power shortage, tighter credit and global economic concerns to blame for falling chemical prices
ICIS, Reed Business Information Limited. / July 4, 2011

China is facing its most serious power shortage since 2004, which is taking a serious toll on chemical demand.

With 11 provinces and cities rationing electricity, there have been power brownouts in the manufacturing sector. This has caused a number of small to mid-sized industrial companies, including chemical producers, to cut or to stop production.

Moreover, the Chinese government's monetary tightening policy has exerted pressure on a large number of these chemical producers. The government has raised deposit reserve levels six times and interest rates twice since the start of the year in an effort to curb inflation.

Against this backdrop, China's commodity chemicals market ­faltered in June. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Shanghai limits power supply for industrial users
SteelOrbis Electronic Marketplace Inc. / July 5, 2011

On July 4, the eastern Chinese city of Shanghai started to limit power supply for industrial users in order to guarantee electricity for residents amid the ongoing hot weather conditions.

China's State Grid Corporation reported that on the afternoon of July 4 electricity consumption in Shanghai reached a record level of (24.129 million kwh), up 4 million kWh compared with the previous day. At the same time, residents in certain districts of Shanghai experienced shortages of electricity.

[babystrangeloop]

Power demand surges as heat rises
By Wu Yiyao / China Daily / July 14, 2011

SHANGHAI - Electricity shortages have been bringing more pain to East China as the mercury has climbed during the past week and power providers announced rationing in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu.

In Zhejiang province, demand for power was predicted to reach 50 million kilowatts - an 18.9 percent year-on-year increase - while limitations in supply meant 5 million kilowatts of that wanted power would be unsatisfied, according to statistics from the Zhejiang Electricity Power Corporation of the State Grid.

Power consumed from the Shanghai Electricity Power Corporation of the State Grid peaked at 24.13 million kilowatts on July 4. In light of the sizzling demand, the corporation began rationing power this summer among some industrial users on that day.

The Shanghai municipal government has also approved a power-rationing plan for 3,000 non-industrial users. ...

Power shortage in China is due to high energy consuming industries
MySteel.net via Steel Guru / July 16, 2011

China economic growth was 9.6% in H1 of the year with growth of electricity consumption at 12.2%YoY during January to June. High speed growth in electricity consumption, given a slight decline in economic growth caused the most serious power shortage since 2004.

... In addition, the contradiction caused by market coal and planned electricity, meaning coal prices decided by the free market but electricity prices by plan, dampening the enthusiasm of generators.

[babystrangeloop]

Lights Out — The Opportunity in a China Blackout
By TaipanPublishingGroup.com / July 20, 2011

You've got a perfect hand at the blackjack table... and you've got a lot of patacas in your bet pile.

The night's been lucky for you at the Lisboa Macau, and you've got an upgrade coming your way if your luck holds out. The dealer's showing 15, then 19, then bust! Looks like you'll be smiling all the way to your luxury suite.

The dealer's counting your winnings when the Lisboa suddenly goes dark...

It's pandemonium. Like something out of Ocean's 13, when George Clooney and Brad Pitt engineer a fake earthquake to empty out their rival's casino, the Bank -- people screaming, grabbing chips, pushing, stampeding to get out.

But it's not a movie.

China's Guangdong province just cut power supplies, and outages have trickled down to the luxury playground of Macau.

Think it can't happen? Insiders are already predicting it will.

China Southern Electric Power Grid said five southern provinces -- including Guangdong -- could face power shortages of up to 7 or 8 gigawatts (GW) in the third quarter of this year. The word "could" implies a chance of power shortages, but there's more than just a chance in this instance.

In the first half of 2011, these five provinces have had to cut 9.01 GW because of tight electricity supplies and high demand. ...

... China is in the midst of a huge energy shift. It wants to generate more power from natural gas, and less power from coal. But its domestic resources can't keep up. PetroChina (PTR:NYSE) supplied 1.83 billion cubic meters of natural gas to six power plants -- a boost of 64.9% from the previous year.

That kind of growth is unsustainable ...

[babystrangeloop]

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region
Reporting by Jim Bai and Ken Wills; Editing by Jacqueline Wong / Reuters / July 19, 2011

Five southern Chinese provinces, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Hainan, may face power shortages of up to 7 to 8 gigawatts (GW) in the third quarter, the local grid operator said in a report published on Tuesday. ...

The report now shows the situation is getting worse after previous versions had some improvements:

Total power deficit in gigawatts (GW)
Total 44.85-49.85 (June 2)
Total 42.87-47.87 (June 15)
Total 45.97-51.17 (July 19)

(click)

[babystrangeloop]

China June petrochemical imports fall; price spikes deter buyers
By Dolly Wu / ICSI / July 25, 2011

SHANGHAI (ICIS)--China’s imports of most petrochemical products continued to decline in June as domestic demand is being constrained, partly by limited access to credits amid continued monetary tightening by the government, industry sources said on Tuesday.

... Chinese industries are also coping with a power shortage that may have contributed to weakness in demand for petrochemicals, said an analyst from China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF). Power consumption usually peaks during the summer months of June to September. ...

June imports of most petrochemical products continues to decline in China
Plastemart / July 27, 2011

... An ongoing power shortage may have contributed to weakness in demand for petrochemicals. Power consumption usually peaks during the summer months of June to September. ...

... In June, the country’s propylene imports fell by a quarter to 97,336 ton, while it took in 30% less butadiene (BD) compared with levels in the same period last year, official data from China Customs showed. Prices of the olefin product surged by over US$300/ton in just two months from mid-May. Meanwhile, China halved its benzene imports to 6,100 tons, according to the China Customs. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Well my respect for Tom Whipple took a hit today.

Peak oil notes - July 28
by Tom Whipple / FCNP via Energy Bulletin / July 28, 2011

... Heavy rains in China during the past two months appear to be easing the power shortage as more hydro power can be generated. Imported Chinese coal prices are easing suggesting that the demand for coal is not as tight as it was in the spring. ...

Tom has become detached from the situation in China.

Reuters is reporting the energy shortage worsening:
Total power deficit in gigawatts (GW)
Total 44.85-49.85 (June 2)
Total 42.87-47.87 (June 15)
Total 45.97-51.17 (July 19)

China's manufacturing sector PMI indicates contraction all June and in July it appears to be worsening. China can't afford imported coal; it can force domestic coal prices low via regulations but they can't do that to the world's markets. They do without energy by not manufacturing and it shows up in the contracting PMI.

HSBC Flash July China PMI Indicates Contraction
edited by Cyrus LAO / July 21, 2011

July 21, HSBC's China Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell below the boom-bust line of 50 in July, a 28-month low, the purchasing managers' survey showed on Thursday.

The flash PMI index, the earliest available indicator of China's industrial activity, dipped to 48.9 in July, indicating the country's manufacturing activity in July could decline from last month, as policy tightening and slack global demand weighed on economic growth.

That compares with the final reading of 50.1 in the HSBC PMI for June. The 50-point level in the PMI demarcates expansion from contraction, with a reading above 50 indicating growth.

According to the final PMI reading in June, the industrial output sub-index fell to 49.8. The trend has now been confirmed with the preliminary July industrial output sub-index, which slipped further to 47.2. ...

Tom reports misleading statements about the situation improving. They've fooled you Tom, you've bought into the MSM image of China. You didn't look at the fine print.

[dsula]

China can't afford imported coal;

How can they not afford it? I thought they got all the cash in the world.

[babystrangeloop]

China can't afford imported coal;

How can they not afford it? I thought they got all the cash in the world.

Only on TV News do they have all the cash in the world.
Do you ever see anything like this on your TV?

Beijing battling protest fires on all fronts
The Australian via The Times / June 15, 2011



AN eruption of protests throughout China has sent armoured vehicles into town centres, prompted an internet blackout by the government and left thousands across the country blogging about "crazy" violence on the streets. ...

This is it in a nutshell, China needs more coal than they have domestically and imports come with higher prices:

Bad summer of power shortages threatens China economic growth
Michael Sainsbury / The Australian / June 23, 2011

... The key reason behind the central government's inability to control the price of coal is that China has moved from being a self-sufficient coal producer to a net importer of coal. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Guangxi suffers from most serious power shortage in past two decades
Steel Orbis / August 1, 2011

Gu Nanfeng, assistant chief engineer of China Southern Power Grid, has stated that China's Guangxi Province is suffering from its most serious power shortage in the past two decades.

Power generation of Guangxi Province stands at nine million kWh, including 2.5 million kWh of hydroelectric power, 5.5 million kWh of thermal power and one million kWh of power imported from other provinces. However, the power demand of Guangxi totals 13 million kWh, with the power supply shortage thus reaching almost four million kWh.

Power runs short in South
By Huang Zhaohua and An Baijie / China Daily / August 2, 2011

NANNING - The Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region is seeing its most serious electricity shortage in the past two decades, leaving nearly 30 percent of the region's demand for electricity unmet, local power authorities say.

The region can generate about 9 million kilowatts and buys about 1 million kW from other provinces.

That is not enough to provide the 13 million kW of electrical capacity the region needs in total, said Gu Nanfeng, deputy chief engineer of Guangxi Power Grid Corporation.

In Nanning alone, the government began on June 27 to restrict the power use of 1,049 industrial companies. That step will save about 300,000 kW for civil use, said He Jiyuan, deputy director of the Nanning Electricity Supply Bureau.

Guangxi falls about 3.5 million to 4 million kW short of being able to produce what it needs. Every day, the amount of its shortage comes to between 80 million to 90 million kWh, which means 30 percent of its demand for electricity is not being satisfied. ...

... Liu Xiaoqiong, a resident of Jiangnan district in Nanning, said she has seen frequently power cuts since late June.

"We were not informed about the blackout ahead of time, and I am really afraid that the electricity will be cut off when I am in the elevator," Liu said.

Mo Qu, a resident living in Beihulu Road, said that all of his gold fish, most of which are expensive, were killed because the blackout prevented the pump that supplies oxygen to his pets from working. ...

... Besides in Guangxi, electricity shortages have occurred in most of China's provinces and cities that do not have large reserves of coal. ...

China's Energy Shortages Start to Bite
Asia Sentinel / August 2, 2011
New reports say the effects are starting to ripple across society

The magnitude of China’s enormous need for new sources of power is starting to come clear, with rationing expected in as many as 10 major areas between now and September, according to a number of reports issued recently.

“This time, the emergency will last longer, with widespread ramifications across industry sectors,” according to a report by Energy Shortage, a website dedicated to keeping tabs on the global energy situation. “As for the market, the power crisis – on top of ever-tightening monetary police pressure – is threatening a near-term growth scare.

The effects are rippling across the society as the country’s worst energy crisis since 2004 begins to bite and could result in large-scale layoffs of workers in energy-intensive industries. Layoffs in 2009 because of the global financial crisis were partly responsible for worker unrest in Guangdong and other industrial centers.

Chinese state-owned media have reported that as many as 24,000 industrial businesses in the Shanghai area have been told that they face mandatory power cuts. In Zhejiang province, some factories have switched to diesel powered generators, despite the fact that diesel power costs are double those of the commercial grid, adding to production costs and to pollution.

... Imported coal prices have been soaring upwards -- partly because China is buying so much of it. ...

... Consequently, because the country’s railroads are at capacity in hauling coal, millions of trucks have been pressed into service, causing traffic jams across the country and, because the trucks are so heavy, breaking down the highways.

News agencies reported that one traffic jam last year on the highway between Beijing and Zhangjiakou was 70 kilometers long and lasted 20 days as an estimated 7,000 vehicles, most of them overloaded with coal, were stuck in a line. ...

The original Great Depression had this problem too. Coal doesn't scale well--you end up clogged and choked trying to move enough coal around to do business let alone grow.

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region
Reporting by Jim Bai and Chen Aizhu; Editing by Ken Wills / Reuters / Aug 2, 2011

BEIJING, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's power shortfalls would total 30-40 gigawatts in summer, China Electricity Council said in its latest industry analysis. The deficit represents an upward revision of its previous deficit forecast of about 30 GW. ...

The report now shows the situation is getting worse after previous versions had some improvements:

Total power deficit in gigawatts (GW)
Total 44.85-49.85 (June 2)
Total 42.87-47.87 (June 15)
Total 45.97-51.17 (July 19)
Total 46.17-51.37 (Aug 2)

[babystrangeloop]

China power supply becomes tight in many provinces and cities
MySteel.net via SteelGuru / Aug 7, 2011

It is reported that power supply becomes tight again in several provinces and cities due to high temperature and affecting production of steelmakers and electrolytic aluminum producers.

Insider in Liugang said production output lowered significantly due to power restriction with two to three production lines being stopped reducing 20% of output during Jun to Jul.

Guangxi district suffered severest power shortage in 20 years with power supply gap close to 30%. As the largest steelmaker in Guangxi, its medium plate production line has been stopped and in maintenance starting from July 28th planning to last 15 days. It is estimated that 75,000 tonnes of medium plate will be affected. ...

[americandream]

They've been hav ing major issues with Turkic Islamic insurgents in Xinjiang as well which China is blaming on Pakistani elements. Apparently around 50% of China is non-Han territory, much of which is resourcing rich.