[Ferretlover]

Not the Nazis again... sigh....
There's always a window. The point is: THIS IS IT. The you-know-what-storm may not be in full force in a week or a month or a year or a decade, or more.
But, unless you prepare for it, and prepare your children and significant others, as fast as they can absorb the lessons, your lines "ain't gonna make it."
It takes way too much time for humans to learn to accept things--hence, the societal lockstep to get people to do what the government (any government) wants.
"What if" is a fun game. But, it's not reality. It's just a time waster. And, no-one can buy more time.

[Sixstrings]

Yall ask about why life has to be "so hard" in the US. Simple. It doesn't, and isn't.. UNLESS.

You've ever played keeping up with the Jones'.

If you played that game at some point over the last two decades; well, now you get to pay up. So it's gonna suck for a while.

I never played.
Life in the US is easy peasy.

Well that's swell and all Agent, but Australians are enjoying growing wages and a bright future and they never have to worry a Tea Party will throw them in the gutter when they're old and feeble. They know they'll have medical care in their old age.

Meanwhile, American hedge funds are buying up half the mines in Australia. So clearly our problems are not a lack of money. We have all the money in the world to invest offshore, yet nothing to build a good society here at home. More liberals should read economic news, it really opens your eyes on things. It's time to call it, Agent. Growth in the US has stopped. Oilfinder's "recession is over" thread is getting to be a joke, that darn thread is years old now.

My point is that while peak oil may have stopped growth in the US, places like Australia and Canada have valuable natural resources combined with very small populations. I just don't see an end to growth there within our lifetimes. Peak resources will just make those mines even more valuable, peak oil makes those tar sands cost efficient. Canada even benefits from climate change.. an opened up Arctic ready for exploitation (which they're gearing up to do), maybe a warmer climate for them too, they may wind up with an agricultural boom.

[AgentR11]

I've called it in that thread as well, this is a Depression, plane and simple. They blew a little positive growth bump in the middle by pumping a bunch of freshly printed cash, but its really just the same cycle. It takes quite a while to come out of one, in addition, there is a currency valuation adjustment going on that's been building for a while. I see no reason why this won't play out the same as Japan's RE bubble pop, we'll go through a zero growth decade as things unwind and normalize. Their's was much more outrageous than ours, but ours had Lehman in the mix to intensify the initial impact.

In the end, you look at the unemployment numbers and see a bad thing; but if you look at pct of the population that is holding jobs now, all that has happened is that the numbers are back to where they should be. Now home valuations have to fall further to come back into line with historical norms; untenable mortgages have to default and be unwrapped, foreclosed, auctioned, price discovery has to occur again. This reset is not a bad thing, I have long felt America is best where one full time wage earner supports the financial needs of 3-7 people living in a modest home, together, as a family. This BS of everyone in the family working ridiculous jobs for money to buy a ridiculous house which only enslaves them to more time in service for money, instead of service for love, just must end.

And it is ending; It just takes time. But its not the end either, at least not the end on a national scene. (AGW... well, different kettle, no?)

Now, this isn't to say Australia and Canada aren't in great shape to grow over the next few decades; they certainly are; but to suggest the US is somehow falling back to truly hard living, is just nonsense. Some people, that should never have held jobs, got them for a brief bubbly period; silliness ensued, burger flippers played RE speculator, and bankers played roulette by rolling them all up, and saying lettem ride.

As far as the Tea Party, and the dreaded bus; I know the press is going on, and on, and on; and its a great drama. Like I tell Pops. Let me know when the food stamp cards stop working. Results, not babble. So far, no bus, just fruit loops.

[SeaGypsy]

Australia depends on continued growth in Asia. All of which still hinges on oil.
Some people are suggesting we will get on the CTL GTL/ fracking bandwagon and thereby override energy concerns.
We have to have someone wanting to buy our stuff, and it has to be worth more than it costs to get it out of the ground.
A good part of the current gold price is in getting the stuff out of the rock it is usually embedded in at a rate of 20 to 50 grams per million.
Coking coal, ideal for CTL is also key in Chinese steel smelting, most of the ore for which Australia supplies with the said coal.

In short there are still many vulnerabilities to Australia's future, the USA has far more agrible land at affordable prices.

[JohnRM]

As a somewhat single man with his roots in the US of A, I am staying put, regardless. If and when I become a Father, I will go wherever my children have the best chance at a full and happy life.

[Shaved Monkey]

I think the future problems will come not from having enough money,stuff or a job the problem will come from coming in contact with people who cant cope with not having enough money,stuff or a job.
Just comparing the residents and governments response to Cyclone Katrina and to the Floods in Queensland.
In the US there are very poor angry people who will never crawl out of the poverty and they know it,they go into this is my only chance to get what I cant have mode.

Stronger unions,high minimum wages, a "socialist" health care system,a "socialist" unemployment benefits scheme ,a "socialist" aged pension scheme,narrow the gap in Australia, Canada and most of Western Europe of the rich and the poor.
So when the lights go out in a US city the looting and shooting begins,if the lights go out in a quasi-socialist country people go to bed and the birth rate goes up in 9 months time.

If I was an American I would head north to your closest quasi socialist neighbour with similar accent and try and fit in.
Marry a Canadian and you might qualify for some of the benefits.(if the governments exist to hand them out)
Sounds like the Canadian version of Tea Party might be in power up there though
even Australia has been heading to the right at a rapid rate for the last 15 or so years.
................................................................
.........did they give Canadian citizenship to the Vietnam Vets and draft dodgers who went there during/after the war????
.................................................................

Saw a doco a few years back on the US during the Great there was a real fear of unemployed people listening to Arlo Guthrie and turning to communism , so they got them digging swales in mid west farm land and planting trees
Once the war started, business picked up and it was back to normal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_C ... tion_Corps


....a new CCC would be a great thing to reintroduce if TSHTF
It could be a great thing for all countries.

[Serial_Worrier]

When TSHTF the first thing that is going to happen is New Zealand, Australia, Europe close their doors to Americans. Also what makes you think American authorities are going to let you leave? Keep believing you live in a free country.

[SeaGypsy]

You think they lay out the welcome mat now?
Have a look at what it takes to get a work visa to these places now already.

1/ Employability, qualifications and experience, usually a job offer from a sponsoring employer (not easy when you're not here for the interview)

2/ $ enough to look after yourself for at least 2 years, up to 7 years if on an 'investment' visa'.

They want criminal history, health history, work history, family arrangements.

If you are able to satisfy the conditions, chances are you don't need to emigrate. The typical American migrant to Australia is a left of centre doctor with a couple mil in the bank. They don't move here out of desperation. Australia doesn't recognise economic refugees, I don't think the others you mentioned do either; so unless the US beomes like Somalia you can forget refugee visas. Besides that I don't see the rules changing any time soon.

[Serial_Worrier]

If you are able to satisfy the conditions, chances are you don't need to emigrate. The typical American migrant to Australia is a left of centre doctor with a couple mil in the bank. They don't move here out of desperation. Australia doesn't recognise economic refugees, I don't think the others you mentioned do either; so unless the US beomes like Somalia you can forget refugee visas. Besides that I don't see the rules changing any time soon.

It's not that the entire US could ever become Somalia, but urban pockets will. Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Baltimore, D.C. St. Louis are just off the top of my head.

[Pretorian]

If something like that happens, and there will be no USA to cry a river to, AU/NZ will be overrun by Indonesia and/or China. No question about it and yes, they have more than enough people to brush all those pink warriors off like a pesky fly.

[SeaGypsy]

You just made it real obvious you haven't been here and you know nothing about Australians. There doesn't need to be a military invasion, there is already a legal one.

Australia has fantastic natural defenses. It also has some extremely well trained units of defense in the areas prone to mass landings. Anyone thinking it will be easy to take over northern and central Australia has never been there and has no knowlege of it.

The way it's going we will have an Asian leader through our current system within 15 years.

[Sixstrings]

Australia isn't going to be invaded.

What's likely is that China will put the pressure on.. control their politics. If given a choice, Aussies are better off with American investors owning their resources. American capitalists just want to make money and don't want taxes, the Chinese though that's state capitalism with a nationalist bent.

[Pretorian]

Hello? The title of the thread starts " If things get crazy in US". How can you assume BAU anywhere will be BAU after that. Well, may be in Somalia or Darfur, surely not in AU. As for the pink warriors in Australia-- they won't have enough ammo.

[Pretorian]

As for a legal invasion-- they do have your resources but they keep your populace fat and happy in exchange. That is not going to fly for a long time.

[AgentR11]

If a foreign national power purchases a problematic level of assets within a country, the answer becomes simple.

PROPERTY TAX

Personally, I think the problem of foreign ownership is vastly overstated.

[SeaGypsy]

I was talking about legal immigration/ virtual invasion.

[Newfie]

Canada. Lucky enough to be a dualie and have land and family there.

[Ibon]

I saw an article yesterday about 5,000 people stampeding for just 100 public housing apartments in Dallas. These people have nowhere to go but the street, yet it's illegal to sleep in the street. What are they supposed to do, Ibon?

I would say have more patience for the "whining" American underclass. They're in a bad spot, they're living in a country that's designed for wealthy folk.

I am back in the good old USA once again and came back to this thread this morning while having a quiet cup of coffee.

Since we live in a country that is designed for the wealthy folk as Sixstrings pointed out doesn't this just underscore even more that the underclass in America will only be able to better their lot when they
generate solutions taking initiatives from their own resourcefulness. I don't see the political climate offering any expanded support. Nor does the economic outlook.

So the stark truth is that neither the political nor the economic realities will lift the underclass anytime soon which really leaves no choice but to start the painful process of recognition that the pathway out of this will have to be generated from resourcefulness from within this new socio economic reality.

Looking at developing countries and seeing how the poor function is a good way to see where America's underclass will be required to move toward

1) learn to cook and eat unprocessed food; rice, beans,corn, less meat.
2) Pool resources for transportation; jeepnies, collectivos
3) Share housing with extended families, rent out rooms in house for borders
4) Learn skills toward self reliance in order to fix and make stuff instead of buying finished goods

You can see this is already happening. There are some laws that could be enacted that could facilitate this.

Imagine if we allowed the importation of those light weight Korean buses or vans and permitted drivers to collect money from passengers and let private family owned companies own these and provide transportation. Just like in developing countries this private enterprise initiative would sprout thousands of these vehicles throughout our cities and suburbs charging passengers cheap rates and enabling millions the mobility without a private vehicle.

Just an example of what will be coming soon to America..........the government at some point will have to find cost effective solutions like this if only in the self interest of preventing social instability.

[Sixstrings]

So the stark truth is that neither the political nor the economic realities will lift the underclass anytime soon which really leaves no choice but to start the painful process of recognition that the pathway out of this will have to be generated from resourcefulness from within this new socio economic reality.

Reading your posts, I'll first say that you're thoughtful and sincere and I enjoy reading what you write but -- I get the feeling you're a Liberterian, and so you and me disagree.

Essentially, you're an an expat in a third world country and you're quite happy with your position there, maybe to you it's a Liberterian fantasyland with jeepnies and crippled people selling bananas on the street.

From this post you've written, it seems like you'd be fine with these kind of "third world solutions" introduced to the USA.

1) learn to cook and eat unprocessed food; rice, beans,corn, less meat.
2) Pool resources for transportation; jeepnies, collectivos
3) Share housing with extended families, rent out rooms in house for borders
4) Learn skills toward self reliance in order to fix and make stuff instead of buying finished goods

None of the above is the middle class American Dream. As for your tips.. prepping for poverty is silly, nobody needs tips on that -- it's just common sense when there aren't better options.

Doing a search on Panama and poverty, this pops up:

Wilson Lucom, a US tycoon, left most of his estate to a foundation to help the neediest people in the country where he lived until his death in 2006, aged 88.

Now, four years later, after a bitter legal battle, the fortune is going to one of Panama's most powerful dynasties – including the ambassador to Britain – and the children have been left without a cent.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&biw=1399&bih=784&gbv=2&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=panama+slum&oq=panama+slum&aq=f&aqi=g1&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=3998l4432l0l4616l4l3l0l2l2l0l68l68l1l1l0

Well ain't that a nice story. Rich American tries to leave his money to the poor in Panama but the courts block it, somehow the British ambassador gets his hands on it. Another topic though.

Take a look at that pic. That's what your Liberterian and "resourceful poor" fantasyland looks like. That's what de-regulation looks like. South America is an interesting place Ibon, I'd just prefer it stay there. On the numbers, there's no good reason the American people can't live as well as Europeans.

There are some laws that could be enacted that could facilitate this.

Oh that's exactly what the Right wants to do and is doing, they're very much interested in "facilitating" a third world America.

Just like in developing countries this private enterprise initiative would sprout thousands of these vehicles throughout our cities and suburbs charging passengers cheap rates and enabling millions the mobility without a private vehicle.

The only thing I'd agree with you on is that if the US is descending into third world status, then all the regulations need to go out the window -- South American poverty is ugly, but at least they are free to start a business without any permits, inspections, liability insurance, etc. People can just paint a sign on their jeepnie and call themselves a bus company.

But with all the problems we have, the US is still the largest and richest economy in the world. You're arguing in favor of a third world America, but that doesn't mean there isn't another option. Our peers are Canada, France, Germany, and Britain -- not Ecuador and Timbuktu.

[AgentR11]

Take a look at that pick. That's what your Liberterian and "resourceful poor" fantasyland looks like. That's what de-regulation looks like. South America is an interesting place Ibon, I'd just prefer it stay there. On the numbers, there's no good reason the American people can't live as well as Europeans.

No, there's really not, but I cringe a bit when people right these kinds of sentences. America isn't uniformly like any particular European country, and I'm not quite sure that sentence evokes anything other than a generic, placid image of a middle class, salaried professional, having a pleasant lunch, at a sophisticated sidewalk cafe, in a spiffy part of Paris. Everything from home size, village size, and price of goods, to very large government supports of religious schools, to small militaries, quality vs quantity productivity, to unexceptional but affordable health care.... A lot of things would be quite a shock to your average middle class American family, and I'm not sure if many of them would label the experience acceptable. Wouldn't bother me either way, Eurozone has a lot to recommend it, but so too does SE Texas

But with all the problems we have it may be hard to believe, the US is still the largest and richest economy in the world. You're arguing in favor of a third world America, but that doesn't mean there isn't another option. Our peers are Canada, France, Germany, and Britain -- not Ecuador and Timbuktu.

I think this is wrong, our peers are neither of these sets; our peers are China, Japan, Australia, Mexico, and Brazil. All you have to do is take a googlemaps flyover of Germany, France, or Britain to understand that they are very different from the US; but fly over China.. Looks distinctly familiar to me. The village compactness and granularity of German and France is just completely foreign to the US, explain to a German friend that while you might buy groceries and a market one mile away, it doesn't seem at all odd to drive 50 to 100 km to a specialty grocer, or large special products shop (eg Fry's), it won't seem "normal" in any way. As you fly over Germany, note the proximity of commercial farmland to these modern villages, the villages don't blob-out into the grain fields; they just stop, and then productive fields immediately begin. Hop to the US and these massive urban centers are just blobby out to forever, "sprawl" doesn't even begin to describe whats happening. As soon as a town begins to be a town, ag production just keels over in the US out miles from the central core. Closest you can get in the US to this are housing subdivisions, but they are in no way functional villages, instead, they are a mockery, completely non-functional, pushing business and production sites far, far away from a group of very loosely scattered houses on some twisty streets, trapped in a restricted access bubble. Describe this middle class existence of living in something that looks like a village, but within which the closest thing resembling commercial activity is the quicky-mart at the sole exit point to the highway.

Exceptions can be found to match of course, but my point is that American life is never going to mirror Eurozone life; to much core, structural stuff is just incompatible. We have to accept who we are, and build from there; not pretend we are a nation with 300 million industrious Germans living in compact cities and villages with industry.