[EnergyUnlimited]

Then the flip side comes worldwide, after this brief crisis, as it has come to a lot of the Mideast already; America used to provide the excess in the grain market that prevented prices from rising out of control; now we hold a simple red button... it doesn't launch nukes, it does worse. It turns grain into alcohol to be burned in vehicles. Mideast countries are not reducing their populations, Asia is not reducing its population, the Americas are not reducing their populations; but we most certain are reducing the amount of grain available to feed all those people. Should someone come along and attempt to fill the gap, we remove the thumb from the red button, and they are instantly bankrupted.

If you thought American greed had no limits when we took 25%... you ain't seen nothing yet.

You are overestimating ability of US to influence other nations in coming food crisis albeit I must admit that you have certain leverage on the Middle East.

Europe is out of hook (self sufficient), Russia, Canada, South America and Australia as well, Africa irrelevant, Chinese will partially starve but pull through and Indians with Middle East are probably screwed.
Middle East is more screwed than Indians are.

[AgentR11]

It was a bit of doomer porn. I thought some might find it fun. It is of course grossly overstated.

[EnergyUnlimited]

As it won't be calamitous for myself because of my holdings, It won't be calamitous for many of means. But it will destroy the national government. Which is, as I said before, what I believe the goal of, to use Roosevelt's term, the Captains of Industry.

Why do you believe that American government cannot exist without AAA rating?

[mattduke]

How did you earn all the money you boast about, Cid_Yama?

[SeaGypsy]

Let's not forget the real physical gold price is about $200 to $300 more than the paper price. Estimates vary, but my reading is that about 80% of 'paper gold' either never existed or is yet to exist.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Let's not forget the real physical gold price is about $200 to $300 more than the paper price. Estimates vary, but my reading is that about 80% of 'paper gold' either never existed or is yet to exist.

In Poland dealers are offering gold at 4% over the spot.

[americandream]

If you thought American greed had no limits when we took 25%... you ain't seen nothing yet.

You are overestimating ability of US to influence other nations in coming food crisis albeit I must admit that you have certain leverage on the Middle East.
Europe is out of hook (self sufficient), Russia, Canada, South America and Australia as well, Africa irrelevant, Chinese will partially starve but pull through and Indians with Middle East are probably screwed.
Middle East is more screwed than Indians are.

Bollix. The higher you are, the further you fall. Basic fact in physics.

China's fate is inextricably tied up with America's. America invented China in her malls and were America to collapse, there simply isn't the werewithal in China to purchase the container loads of garden gnomes.

Africa is fairly insulated as it has never really integrated with the capitalist economy.

Russia is still fubar after the Cold War and probably will send many a decade lurching around the global stage like a drunk man.

The Indians have always pursued an isolationist stance largely due to their ambivalence with full integration and will retreat further into that shell in the event of a downturn.

Arabia is deeply feudalistic and will simply devolve into further arbitrary government in the absence of their oil revenues.

The bggest risk is Eastern Euroope in Europe...recently capitalist, hungry for the capitalist high life and deprived of it at the last minute. As well as Southern Europe which has depended on the largesse of the Germans to date.

But this nonsense as regards European self sufficiency. Watch Europe disintegrate when the Germans say nein.

[EnergyUnlimited]

China's fate is inextricably tied up with America's. America invented China in her malls and were America to collapse, there simply isn't the werewithal in China to purchase the container loads of garden gnomes. ...
The bggest risk is Eastern Euroope in Europe...recently capitalist, hungry for the capitalist high life and deprived of it at the last minute. As well as Southern Europe which has depended on the largesse of the Germans to date.
But this nonsense as regards European self sufficiency. Watch Europe disintegrate when the Germans say nein.

Rubbish.
We are not mumbling about capitalism/communism or keeping European Union intact, only discussing ability of nations to feed themselves.
So US can, South American nations, Australia, Russia, Europe & Canada can, China will struggle, India starve and Middle East with large parts of Africa are fubar.
As per Eastern Europe, this region is a net food exporter if you missed it.
It is that simple.

So here you are:
http://www.warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/ ... 99/article
Polish food surplus.

http://www.ats.agr.gc.ca/eur/4268-eng.htm
Ukraine as a net food exporter (incidentally they became an exporter only after rejection of some remnants of communist system).

[prajeshbhat]

We are not mumbling about capitalism/communism or keeping European Union intact, only discussing ability of nations to feed themselves.
So US can, South American nations, Australia, Russia, Europe & Canada can, China will struggle, India starve and Middle East with large parts of Africa are fubar.
As per Eastern Europe, this region is a net food exporter if you missed it.
It is that simple.

Middle east will not starve. At least not the OPEC nations. As long as they have the ability to export oil, they are fine. I can forecast that the rulers of these countries are going to get even wealthier. These rulers never cared about the people to begin with. So I guess these regions will continue to be the breeding ground for terrorists in the coming decades.
I don't know why you believe India will starve. Most people in India are still farmers. And the country had record crop production in 2010-2011. And there is scope to increase the productivity of farms.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Middle east will not starve. At least not the OPEC nations. As long as they have the ability to export oil, they are fine. I can forecast that the rulers of these countries are going to get even wealthier. These rulers never cared about the people to begin with. So I guess these regions will continue to be the breeding ground for terrorists in the coming decades.
I don't know why you believe India will starve. Most people in India are still farmers. And the country had record crop production in 2010-2011. And there is scope to increase the productivity of farms.

Some ME countries don't have oil and in other oil will gradually run out.

As per India, there will be green revolution reversal once they cannot afford fertilizer and that is increasingly the case.
Population is growing there too.

[nobodypanic]

When he took office he managed to pull us back from the big sucking sound even though we were rapidly spinning down the drain. It was nothing short of a miracle.

His idea of a pull back was trillions more in debt, did you forget that part, that is one of the reasons we are here, he piled on more debt faster than any other Prez..

we're not here because of debt or the deficit. we're here because the nut jobs on the right have scared the crap out of S&P: they frankly don't feel very sure that when it comes time to pay the bills (again) or address the long-term issues (the debt and deficit) that the government is capable of functioning in a rational manner. the irony here is that those bozos that claim to be the champions of the market are completely ignorant as to how the very capitalist system they so love even works.

[Fishman]

we're not here because of debt or the deficit. we're here because the nut jobs on the right have scared the crap out of S&P:

Guess you missed the last year or so with the S and P warning they would degrade our credit rating if our debt was not brought under better control. Bad news for you, the debt ceiling is not the problem, the DEBT is the problem. And our creditors, now including China don't think we can pay it back. So your solution is borrow more?

[Cloud9]

We are here because the nut jobs on the left and the right assumed since the dollar was the reserve currency that the Federal Reserve could print with impunity. That is why Dick Chaney could say with a straight face deficits don’t matter. That is why Nancy Pelosi could preen like a pea cock over the passing of Obama Care and bringing millions more to the public trough. At some point the rest of the world figured out that the chief and primary export of the United States government aside from war was inflation. Games up. We either shrink back in on ourselves or we invade the world for the remaining resources.

[nobodypanic]

we're not here because of debt or the deficit. we're here because the nut jobs on the right have scared the crap out of S&P:

Guess you missed the last year or so with the S and P warning they would degrade our credit rating if our debt was not brought under better control. Bad news for you, the debt ceiling is not the problem, the DEBT is the problem. And our creditors, now including China don't think we can pay it back. So your solution is borrow more?

the debt is not a near term problem. the issue here, straight from the horses mouth, S&P's head of sovereign ratings, is: "The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed."

i believe i can stack you right w/the other 'capitalists' that have zero grasp on the workings of the system they claim is so great. now bear in mind when i say that, i am not referring to the fact that the entire capitalist system is F'ing hogwash, but rather that given capitalist assumptions (however erroneous), and assuming for the sake of argument that they are true, you people don't even seem to know how to operate your own system under its own premises.

it's like the iraq debacle all over again. just as they were able to link baghdad to 9-11 in the minds of the gullible, they are now linking the deficit and the debt to the economic problems of the here and now. the crisis of the moment is not one of spending. the jobs aren't there because of the debt; given your systems' understandings, the proper conclusion is that this is a liquidity problem. when QE goes, so does what's left of the economy. now the underlying physical problem is the price of energy, but that's another issue.

[Fishman]

Ah, half the truth as the left is well know to present.
"Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. "
S&P's report is out there for all to read.

As for Cid's pulling us back from the brink, perfect fallacy. By spending trillions Obama has only driven us along the brink, now the money is gone and we are back at the brink. A perfect Keynesian failure. Instead of squandering that trillion in the first year of Obama's presidency, giving it back to the people would have inspired personal confidence, he didn't, we didn't believe him, and he has failed.

[nobodypanic]

Ah, half the truth as the left is well know to present.
"Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. "
S&P's report is out there for all to read.

i already addressed that portion in my first post. i will re-word it for you since you seem to be glossing or purposefully misreading. to wit... after the sophomoric stunt of the right (and the tea party fundamentalists in particular), S&P has lost faith that we can address the longer-term issues such as the deficit, etc. in a reasonable manner. that's twice now i've made the same point. as to one-sidedness, well there's nothing more distorting than the simplistic notion that the downgrade was simply about insufficient cuts and the debt and nothing else.

As for Cid's pulling us back from the brink, perfect fallacy. By spending trillions Obama has only driven us along the brink, now the money is gone and we are back at the brink. A perfect Keynesian failure. Instead of squandering that trillion in the first year of Obama's presidency, giving it back to the people would have inspired personal confidence, he didn't, we didn't believe him, and he has failed.

giving it back to the people as you say is a keynesian measure. and so are tax cuts.

[rangerone314]

So does this mean that S&P500 and DOW drops on Monday? Anyone got a bottom calculated for this market?

I invested into SPXU about 2 weeks ago. (inverse triple performance fund)

[kiwichick]

post lehman there is no doubt at all that not only was the united states of stupid going over the edge, they were dragging the rest of us down with them

but as we all know it has only delayed the end

[prajeshbhat]

I don't understand why everyone is obsessed with what the government should be doing (or shouldn't be doing in case of libertarians). The real problem is not the $14 trillion Public debt. As long is there is a government that debt will be there with you. The real problem is the $34 trillion private debt. The income of the nation (GDP - government spending) is around $ 11 trillion. So the debt is 300% of the income. If your system has to regain its credibility, the debt has to fall to around 70 to 80 % of the income. So $ 26 trillion has to be deleveraged. You can imagine what kind of depression you will have to go through in order to destroy $26 trillion worth of debt.

As for Cid's pulling us back from the brink, perfect fallacy. By spending trillions Obama has only driven us along the brink, now the money is gone and we are back at the brink. A perfect Keynesian failure.

Right before the great depression the private debt was around 250% of the GDP, just like it is today. Keynesian techniques were applied after the depression ran for about a decade and destroyed most of the debt. Plus oil was cheap there there was scope to improve the output of farms and factories. So a government stimulus worked back then. This time the government has stepped on the accelerator way to soon. And cheap oil is gone.

[kiwichick]

rangerone

the 2nd law of thermodynamics applies


we are moving from structure to chaos