[copious.abundance]

Nah, it's all the trucks delivering stuff to North Dakota wellheads and trucking the oil back to distribution facilities.

37 trucks of stuff per wellhead, plus frack water (~1 million gallons per frack at about 6 thousand gallons per trip) then trucking the crude to the railroads, which also run on distillate. I'Il bet that alone could account for increased distillate demand,and the hokey GDP increases lately.

Though you might have been a bit facetious, that's actually an interesting observation.

The rise on that chart *does* coincide with the big surge in US oil production I've been noting here. It also roughly coincides with the Gallup poll's dramatic fall in the unemployment rate. Maybe we should wait until Friday's jobs report to see if there was a big increase in employment of truck drivers.

Even if a surge in truck drivers transporting stuff for the Bakken and Eagleford has accounted for some of the increase, I doubt it would be responsible for all of it, or even most of it. But I wouldn't be surprised if it accounts for *some* of it. We'll also have to wait a few months when ND and Texas publish their oil production figures for October.

[copious.abundance]

2nd month in a row of 13+ million auto sales SAAR (last month was 13.1 million)

Chrysler sets pace as industry sales climb 8%

Sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13.26 million units, just shy of the 2011 high of 13.29 million rate set in February.

It was also the second consecutive month and fifth month this year the SAAR has topped 13 million units.

The sales rate hit a 2011 low of 11.54 million units in June – when Japanese stockpiles neared lows following the March earthquake in Japan.

And despite the lower headline number, today's manufacturing ISM was generally a bit better than last month.

LINK

Manufacturing may be about to pick up new steam based on the ISM's new orders index which, after three straight of months of marginal contraction, moved to the plus column with a nearly three point gain to 52.4, a reading that's over 50 to show month-to-month expansion. With new orders up, manufacturers worked down their backlogs to an easing degree with the index up six points to 47.5. Employment is little changed at 53.5 to indicate moderate hiring in the sample. Production is steady as are supplier deliveries. New export orders show no change.

A big plus in the report is sharp contraction in prices paid, down 15 points to 41.0 which is the lowest reading in 2-1/2 years. Lower costs reflect slowing demand but they will give manufacturers more leeway to invest in their businesses and workforces. The headline composite index of 50.8 is below the Econoday consensus of 52.0 but the new orders gain is an offsetting plus. Stocks are little changed in early reaction to today's report which may however limit losses through the session.

[basil_hayden]

Nah, it's all the trucks delivering stuff to North Dakota wellheads and trucking the oil back to distribution facilities.

37 trucks of stuff per wellhead, plus frack water (~1 million gallons per frack at about 6 thousand gallons per trip) then trucking the crude to the railroads, which also run on distillate. I'Il bet that alone could account for increased distillate demand,and the hokey GDP increases lately.

Though you might have been a bit facetious, that's actually an interesting observation.

The rise on that chart *does* coincide with the big surge in US oil production I've been noting here. It also roughly coincides with the Gallup poll's dramatic fall in the unemployment rate. Maybe we should wait until Friday's jobs report to see if there was a big increase in employment of truck drivers.

Even if a surge in truck drivers transporting stuff for the Bakken and Eagleford has accounted for some of the increase, I doubt it would be responsible for all of it, or even most of it. But I wouldn't be surprised if it accounts for *some* of it. We'll also have to wait a few months when ND and Texas publish their oil production figures for October.

Facetious? Not one bit - look at the numbers of trucks per well.

37 for equipment
100 for proppant
200 for frack water

multiply by the number of active rigs 200, 30 days per well

67,400 truckloads per month, easy

and 250,000 barrels a day out of the ND via truck to railroad cars (the other 250,000 via pipeline)

2100 more truck loads

This alone could explain upward GDP and economic activity while the rest of the USA sinks further in the pit.

AntiDoomer is the dreamer, not I; I gots facts! That's Anti's main problem - no facts, just sunshine, lollipops and unicorns.

In fact, diesel is in such high demand in the Williston Basin that it costs as much as it does in my puny wicked expensive state of Connecticut (over $3.80 per gallon).

[copious.abundance]

Here's a chart of North Dakota No.2 diesel sales though August. It did, in fact, take a big leap in August.


Data

Here's the same data set for the entire US


Data

North Dakota's 2,230.7K barrels accounts for 1.55% of the US's 143,379.8K barrels of consumption, as of August. Now, let'[s look at this graph again:



The past several weeks, distillate demand has increased by some 430K barrels/day, or about 12,900K barrels per month. So, North Dakota's ~2,231K diesel consumption would have had to increase more than 5-fold in just a month to account for the entire increase in US distillate consumption the past month.

Unlikely.

[basil_hayden]

But the proppant comes from China via California or as sand from Minnesota; and the oil leaves ND to other parts of the country. And the people are coming from all over. You can't measure the increase strictly from ND and make a statement regarding the economic impact of the happenings in that state. We're talking a million more truckloads per year, minimum, plus locomotives (that's trains for AntiDoomer). That's a lot of freaking diesel. Also, after Snowtober, expect kerosene sales to be up, another distillate. Most folks in CT at least are heating this week with kerosene heaters (except for the dummies using BBQ grills and filling the ERs with CO poisoning). What we're witnessing in ND is the most inefficient oil boom ever, at this point; you can't discount its effect on GDP, it is certainly measurable.

Tell you what though, as fracking doesn't happen in the winter, let's keep an eye on the drop I expect in about a month, and the increase in Spring.

[copious.abundance]

I'm sure that other stuff you mentioned will add some to the totals I outlined, but the US is just too big with too many trucks and trains and too much other activity for one oil play, no matter how active it suddenly got, to account for such a sizable increase. As I said before, I've no doubt it accounts for some of it, but it's fantastically unlikely to account for all of it or even most of it.

[copious.abundance]

Facetious? Not one bit - look at the numbers of trucks per well.

37 for equipment
100 for proppant
200 for frack water

multiply by the number of active rigs 200, 30 days per well

67,400 truckloads per month, easy

and 250,000 barrels a day out of the ND via truck to railroad cars (the other 250,000 via pipeline)

2100 more truck loads

This alone could explain upward GDP and economic activity while the rest of the USA sinks further in the pit.

...

BTW, you made a crucial mistake here: The rig counts (and thus, the # of trucks and all your other multipliers) did not go from 0 to 200 just in the past 4 weeks, it probably went from something like 190 or 195 to 200 in the past 4 weeks. So when we're talking about *additional* amounts of diesel consumed over the past 4 weeks, you need to take all your figures and divide them by 20 or 40.

[copious.abundance]

And, related to the article I posted above, here's something else which could account for some of the increased distillate consumption the past several weeks: Increased deliveries of new cars.

[basil_hayden]

I was looking more at the whole year than yet another quarter that will be revised downward some time in the future.

New cars? Amazing how replacing losses from such things as a hurricane can end up counting as GDP growth.

[copious.abundance]

I was looking more at the whole year than yet another quarter that will be revised downward some time in the future.

For what? Distillate consumption? I never posted a chart showing whole years of distillate consumption. You began this chain of conversation by trying to explain away the chart below as due to Bakken activity. Nor is distillate consumption lumped into quarters, nor is it revised downward, and retail sales of diesel are a miniscule portion of GDP.



And it's got nothing to do with a whole year - the sharp rise has only gone on 4 weeks.

New cars? Amazing how replacing losses from such things as a hurricane can end up counting as GDP growth.

There was no hurricane.

Your replies are making no sense.

[Armageddon]

GDP was never intended to measure the health of an economy. Anytime debt constitues growth, it is flawed. That's like somebody charging $100,000 on their credit cards and calling themselves wealthy.

[peripato]

U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says

The number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

The US economy today is all about eating shit sandwiches...

[Armageddon]

U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says

The number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

The US economy today is all about eating shit sandwiches...

This can't be.... we are in a recovery.

[peripato]

U.S. Food-Stamp Use Reaches Record 45.8 Million, USDA Says

The number of Americans receiving food stamps reached a record 45.8 million in August, the government said.
The figure was 1.1 percent higher than the previous month and 8.1 percent more than a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report on its website. Assistance rolls are increasing as joblessness remains at 9.1 percent of the workforce.
Texas had the most food-stamp recipients in August, at 4.12 million, followed by California with 3.82 million, according to the USDA. Spending was a record $6.13 billion.
The number of Americans receiving food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has set records every month but one since December 2008.

The US economy today is all about eating shit sandwiches...

This can't be.... we are in a recovery.

Yeah, one of these kinds...

[basil_hayden]

Let's see if Oily shows up here this Fall and Winter when ts starts htf.

There there, now that's not so bad, is it.

U.S. economy grows 2.5% in third quarter

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. growth accelerated in the third quarter as consumers and businesses ramped up spending, a report that shows the economy remained resilient in the face of strong headwinds.

Gross domestic product in the July-through-September period expanded at a 2.5% annual rate, the government said Thursday. That’s nearly double the 1.3% rate of growth in the second quarter and much faster than the first quarter’s tepid increase of 0.4%.

“There was strength across the board,” said Ellen Zentner, an economist at Nomura. “Now we have some momentum heading into the fourth quarter.”



[...]

Gee, OilFinder2, I'm sorry your lack of intuition is unable to fill in the blanks relating to the "big picture".

Above is a post of yours a whole two pages back in this thread.

It relates the growth of the US GDP in the third quarter by 2.5%.

To recap, I attribute at least 3/4 of that to the Bakken alone.

Are you less confused now?

To be purposefully pigheaded is not becoming.

Now run along and find a proxy that attempts to prove me wrong, while Daniel_Plainview et al find numerous sources for a plunging economy in the rest of the country despite the glowing GDP numbers that will in all likelihood be revised downward in another quarter and add into that the plunging diesel use in the winter due to a lack of fracking in ND's winter.

Next time I'll draw you a picture, I hear geographers like those, I know geologists do.

[Armageddon]

Here is what's propping up the economy:

LPS Mortgage Monitor: Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 72% in Foreclosure Not Made Payment for at Least 1 Year

Foreclosure timelines continue to increase across the board - almost 40 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years, and 72 percent have not made a payment in a year or more. New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... llion.html

[copious.abundance]

Gee, OilFinder2, I'm sorry your lack of intuition is unable to fill in the blanks relating to the "big picture".

Above is a post of yours a whole two pages back in this thread.

It relates the growth of the US GDP in the third quarter by 2.5%.

To recap, I attribute at least 3/4 of that to the Bakken alone.

That's not what you originally objected to. You were explaining away the increase in distillate consumption, whose chart I posted last week. You said nothing about the last GDP estimate.

There's no way in God's Green Earth Bakken activity accounts for but a teeny-tiny smidgeon of GDP growth. Auto sales last quarter were probably the biggest contributor, followed by various kinds of business investment. If you were actually interested in learning about this stuff you'd learn why your contention is ridiculous. The US economy is far too big for some activity in North Dakota to account for such an outsized portion of its growth.

[sereniaL]

This sounds like good news for a change, we must pursue development of Renewable energy. Anyway I've read some articles about this topic, please allow me to share it here. For those wondering where to go to escape the fear of the downturn, consider North Dakota. CNN notes that while six-figure salaries are possible, the path to the cash isn't really for every person. The North Dakota oil boom, centered on the Bakken oil development, has kept the state's joblessness rate the lowest in the United States at 3.5 percent. Large oil signifies a large number of jobs - if candidates can hack grueling hours, lack of housing and harsh winter months. Article resource: North Dakota oil boom brings jobs aplenty. This article was wonderful news, A positive out-look is essential in order to overcome fossil dependence. We're a very successful and entrepreneurial country who has always followed through when we need to. And alternative energy will be just another successful chapter, in our history.

[peripato]

This sounds like good news for a change, we must pursue development of Renewable energy. Anyway I've read some articles about this topic, please allow me to share it here. For those wondering where to go to escape the fear of the downturn, consider North Dakota. CNN notes that while six-figure salaries are possible, the path to the cash isn't really for every person. The North Dakota oil boom, centered on the Bakken oil development, has kept the state's joblessness rate the lowest in the United States at 3.5 percent. Large oil signifies a large number of jobs - if candidates can hack grueling hours, lack of housing and harsh winter months. Article resource: North Dakota oil boom brings jobs aplenty. This article was wonderful news, A positive out-look is essential in order to overcome fossil dependence. We're a very successful and entrepreneurial country who has always followed through when we need to. And alternative energy will be just another successful chapter, in our history.

All you need is a ball-point pen and a paper clip to overcome all obstacles!

[copious.abundance]

Maybe we should wait until Friday's jobs report to see if there was a big increase in employment of truck drivers.

It is Friday, the data has arrived, and the answer is ...

LINKY
^
Under "Trade, transportation, and utilities" --> "Transportation and warehousing" --> "Truck transportation", we get 3,100 new truck drivers added to the workforce last month. From September's number of 1,283,700 truck drivers that's a whopping 0.24% increase. And maybe a quarter of them, at the very, very most, were added in North Dakota and environs. So I think it's fair to say basil's claim that Bakken activity is responsible for most of the distillate consumption increase is a rather absurd claim.