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US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby eXpat » Sat 05 Nov 2011, 21:52:13

Most of the unemployed no longer receive benefits
Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for year or more
WASHINGTON — The jobs crisis has left so many people out of work for so long that most of America's unemployed are no longer receiving unemployment benefits.

Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent — a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.

Congress is expected to decide by year's end whether to continue providing emergency unemployment benefits for up to 99 weeks in the hardest-hit states. If the emergency benefits expire, the proportion of the unemployed receiving aid would fall further.

The ranks of the poor would also rise. The Census Bureau says unemployment benefits kept 3.2 million people from slipping into poverty last year. It defines poverty as annual income below $22,314 for a family of four.

Yet for a growing share of the unemployed, a vote in Congress to extend the benefits to 99 weeks is irrelevant. They've had no job for more than 99 weeks. They're no longer eligible for benefits.

Their options include food stamps or other social programs. Nearly 46 million people received food stamps in August, a record total. That figure could grow as more people lose unemployment benefits.

So could the government's disability rolls. Applications for the disability insurance program have jumped about 50 percent since 2007.

"There's going to be increased hardship," said Wayne Vroman, an economist at the Urban Institute.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45175026/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#.TrXmc130uSp
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 11 Nov 2011, 03:00:03

"15 Statistics Which Prove That The U.S. Economy Is In Much Worse Shape Than Most Americans Think"

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... cans-think
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 11 Nov 2011, 07:24:05

"Extreme Poverty Is Now at Record Levels -- 19 Statistics About the Poor That Will Absolutely Astound You"

http://www.alternet.org/economy/153005/ ... stound_you
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby Pops » Fri 11 Nov 2011, 09:10:33

I saw this the other day
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ilfax.html

You all can sift through it for the headlines you like...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Nov 2011, 20:36:23

Pops wrote:I saw this the other day
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ilfax.html

You all can sift through it for the headlines you like...

Dated Friday, October 14, 2011 10:20 AM. A month old.

The latest Ceridian Index (for October) is here, and it negated September's decrease.

Will be interesting to see what they have for November.

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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 24 Nov 2011, 03:42:22

"Bad Economic News Trifecta Hits: Jobs And Core Durable Goods Worse, Savings Rate Higher As Consumers Hunker Down"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bad-econo ... -consumers
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby peripato » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 20:46:55

Ben Bernanke says no to to further QE to stimulate the US economy and that the Fed. would continue with its bond buying program. The markets swoon in reaction - no free money this time. You think equities would rise on the news that the economy doesn't need stimulating.So, if things were going so well, according to every recovery imbecile around, then why would the US economy even need more stimulating? And why does the US fed need to be a buyer of last resort for US debt?

Why? Because there is no recovery. Just lies, damned lies and statistics.
Last edited by peripato on Tue 13 Dec 2011, 20:51:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 20:51:19

I wonder at what point, when looked at by historians in the future, the US will have been said to have transitioned to a command economy? I mean, seriously.

Are we already past the point, that if the Federal Government stopped buying, ordering, distributing, requiring, and printing, we'd all go belly up and not even able to put enough coin together to get a soda.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby peripato » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 21:13:30

AgentR11 wrote:I wonder at what point, when looked at by historians in the future, the US will have been said to have transitioned to a command economy? I mean, seriously.

Are we already past the point, that if the Federal Government stopped buying, ordering, distributing, requiring, and printing, we'd all go belly up and not even able to put enough coin together to get a soda.

Collapse wouldn't seem so bad, if not for all the lying.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby The Practician » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 21:42:05

AgentR11 wrote:I wonder at what point, when looked at by historians in the future, the US will have been said to have transitioned to a command economy? I mean, seriously.

Are we already past the point, that if the Federal Government stopped buying, ordering, distributing, requiring, and printing, we'd all go belly up and not even able to put enough coin together to get a soda.


If I were the historian in charge I would probably pick a date no later than around 1940.

In Galbraith's The New Industrial State, written in the late 60's he argues fairly convincingly that at as far as large publicly traded corporations engaging in high tech, capital intensive enterprises goes, any high tech industrial economy is a "command economy" when it comes down to it, the primary difference between a capitalist and communist industrial economy is the balance between private vs. public bureaucracy pulling the strings.

Galbraith presented his case from a fairly neutral perspective in that work, and reading it, given a basic understanding of economic history since then, I started thinking that a certain chunk of today's economic woes come from an ideologically driven insistence on denying that the economy operates under anything other than free-market principles, even though that hasn't been the case for quite some time. We've been buying our own BS about how the system works for so long that even the managers have started to believe it, and that is causing problems.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby Cloud9 » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 21:53:21

1932
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 13 Dec 2011, 22:32:37

peripato wrote:So, if things were going so well, according to every recovery imbecile around, then why would the US economy even need more stimulating?

It doesn't, as you just pointed out:
peripato wrote:Ben Bernanke says no to to further QE to stimulate the US economy

peripato wrote:You think equities would rise on the news that the economy doesn't need stimulating.

It would hardly be the first time the market wasn't happy with the lack of a Fed stimulation, even when the economy was doing well. See, to cite one famous example, Greenspan, 1996 and "irrational exhuberance."
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby peripato » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 01:56:50

OilFinder2 wrote:
peripato wrote:So, if things were going so well, according to every recovery imbecile around, then why would the US economy even need more stimulating?

It doesn't, as you just pointed out:
peripato wrote:Ben Bernanke says no to to further QE to stimulate the US economy

peripato wrote:You think equities would rise on the news that the economy doesn't need stimulating.

It would hardly be the first time the market wasn't happy with the lack of a Fed stimulation, even when the economy was doing well. See, to cite one famous example, Greenspan, 1996 and "irrational exhuberance."

Been smokin' the crack pipe again, have we?

That FOMC statement paints a bleak picture of the US economy, with no announcement of new measures to address the situation. To whit;

While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed.

Without jobs and housing the US economy cannot recover.

The Fed cannot allow asset prices to decline, which is bad for consumer confidence, for too long. Expect it to "officially" start printing again next year, as by then most of the hawks (non-supporters of further QE) will be replaced by more dovish members. Just in time to rescue the stock market, in the face of further economic weakness. It will use this renewed and "unexpected" downturn as cover to proceed with the whole shenanigans. Again, from the source;

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

By tools one would read that as meaning "print mo' money". Not that they have really stopped expanding the money supply. At the beginning of 2008 broad money supply stood at $5.3 trillion, whilst by October 2011 it stood at $8.129 trillion. At the moment they are simply masking the process through bond purchases (Operation Twist).
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 09:50:14

HOLY CRAP!

Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected, Down 19,000 to 366,000; PPI Rises 0.3%; Empire State Index at 9.53 (story developing)
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 10:30:56

EDIT: Wrong thread
Last edited by copious.abundance on Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:58:15, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 10:34:48

EDIT: Wrong thread
Last edited by copious.abundance on Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:57:47, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 10:48:02

peripato wrote:That FOMC statement paints a bleak picture of the US economy, with no announcement of new measures to address the situation. To whit;

While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed.

Without jobs and housing the US economy cannot recover.

No, it does not paint a bleak picture of the US economy, it says there have been "some improvement in overall labor market conditions." And here's one of them! :lol:

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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:18:08

EDIT: Wrong thread
Last edited by copious.abundance on Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:57:29, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:41:43

Maybe we are recovering. I don't think so, but you might be right. After all, it's Christmas and we all need to believe in Santa Claus.
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 3

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 15 Dec 2011, 11:47:33

HAHA :lol:
Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.
The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.

"All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought," NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

"We're capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list."
The benchmark revisions will be published next Wednesday and will not affect house prices.

Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of overcounting existing homes sales, with California-based real estate analysis firm CoreLogic claiming sales could have been overstated by as much as 20 percent.

At the time, the NAR said it was consulting with a range of experts to determine whether there was a drift in its monthly existing home sales data and that any drift would be "relatively minor."

The depressed housing market is one of the key obstacles to strong economic growth and an oversupply of unsold homes on the market continues to stifle the sector.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547
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