[Plantagenet]

Jihadists cannot comprehend that it in a democracy the people as a whole own the government-

Its not clear that much of anyone in Egypt comprehends how a democracy should work.

About one half of the people are Islamicists, who want Morsi or even an Islamofascist theocracy to run things in accordance with Sharia Law, One third of the people supported Mubarak, and would be more than delighted to see the military set up another Mubarak to take over as dictator again, and the remaining 15-20% of the people would like to see a western style liberal democracy established, but nonetheless egged on a military coup that toppled a democratically elected government.

[SeaGypsy]

Just goes to show the majority isn't always right- many would argue the opposite. Part of the role of government is to stave off opposition. This one role of government is the most telling, in both rhetoric and action, to the nature of the government. In an evolved dialogue, this involves continual exchange and accommodation of interest groups. In a less evolved situation, the group in power makes and carries out continual threats of extreme violence on the opposition. The situation in much of the ME reflects a population yet to evolve beyond violence as the means to power. Maintaining the peace needs to be a high priority for any chance of economic, environmental transition. Whoever, and some would argue- however, the peace can be re-established and maintained- is the right leadership. If a population isn't educated and ready for open liberal democracy, should not doom the society to be taken over by the lowest common denominator by default- simply for the ideal of democracy,

[Graeme]

2/3 of Egypt’s oil is gone 20 years after its peak

No matter who is ruling Egypt and for how long, this country faces a crippling energy crunch which contributes to the general dissatisfaction of the public and the accelerating changes we see in this country.

Peak production was in 1993, 20 years ago. We see that ever growing consumption (from an ever growing population) has hit the production curve, now 23% lower.

The up-tick in production comes from using modern technology (like fracking) in joint ventures of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Western oil companies.

But this comes at a hefty price:

Egypt Struggles to Pay Oil Bill

October 3, 2012 Industry executives estimate that the government is $6 billion to $7 billion behind in payments to the companies for oil and natural gas they have produced and delivered to the state-owned Egypt General Petroleum Corp. “The burden has become very high on the Egyptian government,” said Magdi M. Nasrallah, a professor at the Department of Petroleum and Energy Engineering at American University in Cairo, and a consultant to energy companies operating in Egypt. “It has become dangerous because Egypt is buying the share of the joint ventures at international prices and selling this share on at subsidized prices.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world ... =all&_r=1&


Oil price risk: Egypt dejà vu

The SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal are important transit points for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from Africa and Persian states to Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Fees collected from operations of these two transit points are significant sources of revenue for the Egyptian government. Thus, both the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are strategic targets for strikes or attacks against the government. A temporary shutdown of the Suez Canal would have the biggest effect on the crude, petrol and middle distillate markets in the US and Europe as around 470k b/d of crude, 420k b/d of petrol and 200k b/d of middle distillates were shipped through the Suez Canal in the northbound direction (PIRA figures from 2010). A temporary shutdown of the canal will redirect the shipping traffic the long way around Africa, pushing up freight costs and increasing the delivery time.


Conclusion:
While most peak oil researchers are transfixed on calculating the global peak, they forget to look at the peaking in populous, strategically located countries like Egypt and its geo-political impacts. Neither US shale oil nor syncrude from Canadian tar sands will help the situation in these countries. What is happening there also tells us something about the world 20 years after the global peak.

resilience

[SeaGypsy]

[Graeme]

She (they) obviously doesn't know anything about peak oil.

What is happening there also tells us something about the world 20 years after the global peak.

Does that mean we are all heading for economic difficulties half way through next decade?

[Plantagenet]

Is this woman angry at Obama because he backed the Egyptian Army after the coup that toppled Mubarak last year, or is she angry at Obama because he is backing the Egyptian Army after the coup that toppled Morsi this year?

[SeaGypsy]

Not sure where you got that from? My reading of the current situation is that Obama's people have been trying to do a treasonous deal with the Muslim Brotherhood over the Sinai and Hamas and that since Morsi was deposed the interim leadership are refusing to talk with such people as the head of CIA. Morsi is locked up somewhere with serious charges pending and no help allowed.

I believe the woman in the picture I posted is demonstrating that the Obama administration has helped create a situation very likely to end up in a civil war. I doubt many Egyptians understand the underlying economic problem rooted in oil.

Sources for the director of the CIA, John Brennan, requested an interview with General Sisi via phone to discuss current developments in Egypt. However, Sisi flatly refused, expressing his anger at the U.S. administration for its desperate intervention in Egyptian affairs, saying, “Interfering with Egyptian sovereignty is crossing OUR red line.”

Egypt has announced a criminal investigation against deposed president Mohammed Morsi, with prosecutors examining complaints of spying, inciting violence and ruining the economy.

The country's first freely elected leader has been held at an undisclosed location since the army removed him from power on July 3, but he has not been charged with any crime.

In recent days Washington has called for Mr Morsi to be freed and for authorities to stop arresting leaders of his Muslim Brotherhood.

The public prosecutor's office said in a statement that it had received complaints against Mr Morsi, eight other named Islamist figures including the Brotherhood's leader, Mohammed Badie, and others it did not identify.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-14/e ... si/4818908

(A Google summary translation, with original video in French)

• SECRET agreement between the Obama administration and the Muslim Brotherhood (not the Egyptian government) to give 40% of the Sinai and the annexation of that part of Egyptian territory in Gaza. The objective is to facilitate the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians

• This agreement was signed by Khairat el Shater (number 2 of the Brotherhood) by Morsi and the Supreme Guide FM. (FM stands for Muslim Brotherhood)

• A sum of U.S. $ 8 billion was paid to the FM.

• The document was seized by the army following the deposition of Morsi. This is the army that has leaked the news.

• An investigation is ongoing Morsi and El Shater. An arrest warrant was filed against the Guide to FM and other members of his office.

• FM signatories to the agreement are liable to the death penalty for treason.

• The Obama administration would try to reach an agreement with el Sissi (chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces): recognition of the legitimacy of the “coup” in exchange for his silence about the secret agreement. But el Sissi would be more interested in the conviction of FM and discredit their organization which is Egypt’s main source of danger.

• The Republican members of Congress are seriously looking into the case. If proven, the process of Obama impeachment could be triggered.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... o24fcRjE44

[Graeme]

P, It's neither. Just read the Ambassador's speech.

Ambassador Anne Patterson, the Controversial Face of America’s Egypt Policy

U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson has become the public face in Egypt of America’s policy failure there. Now, she is charged with restoring not only U.S. relations with the world’s most populous Arab nation, but her own reputation as well.


On paper, Patterson seemed like the ideal diplomat to guide U.S. involvement in Egypt during its transition from six decades of military rule to democracy, given her experience in politically volatile countries such as Colombia and Pakistan. An unusually influential ambassador, she played a major role in forming the U.S. approach to the Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party led by Mohamed Morsi, the elected president who was arrested and removed from office by the Egyptian Army a week ago after tens of millions of Egyptians took to the streets to protest his rule.

But while her American defenders credit Patterson with taking a realistic approach to a volatile situation, many in the Egyptian opposition regard her as the person responsible for America’s close embrace of Islamists in Egypt. During the protests that led to the fall of Morsi’s government, her face, crossed out with a red X, became the symbol for many Egyptians of what they saw as U.S. discouragement of their efforts.


Moreover, said this official, Patterson is taking flak because she is the prominent representative in Cairo of an American government that is always the target of Egyptian ire, no matter what the U.S. does or does not do.

“Let us remember that, in situations like this, the U.S. cannot win in the court of Egyptian public opinion. It is far easier for the Egyptians to find foreign conspiracies than to look at themselves in the mirror,” the official said. “It’s one thing for the Egyptians to believe Anne Patterson is evil, but Washington surely can see what is really going on. Washington should not punish Anne Patterson for Egyptian escapism, fantasy, and xenophobia.”

[Rod_Cloutier]

What you aren't being told about the Egyptian revolution:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 3hso8#t=2s

(From stormcloudsgathering.com)

[SeaGypsy]

I very much doubt the protests resulting in Morsi's deposition have anything at all to do with oil directly. They are what happens when a Muslim Majority gains control of a populace. Non Islamists have no wish for Sharia Law. The economy is bad because of oil, ELM. It would make zero difference to this equation who were in control. However, tourism (to the broadly recognized cradle of civilization) is vital and the only potential beyond FF's to prolong Egypt. Tourism is dead under Morsi. Oil is fading, the place needs to be very open and safe for tourism. It needs to reduce population, consumption and grow the option it will always have- tourism.

There is nobody more unrealistic than the Islamists. God (Allah) gave them the most oil because they are his favorite people. Equally Allah will smash their enemies and make Islam the absolute across the entire world. If Shia- include Sunni as infidel and vis- versa.

These people are crazy and Obama is equally crazy for supporting them. As messed up as secularism has become- it is still the only way to go. These idiots don't have the answers, but they are sure as hell they do.

Even the USA is still not honest enough to admit to itself that it is secularism and the separation of Church and State which promotes real freedom of religion- not Christianity. Now we have a President who can't work out- Islam, Christianity or secularism?

[ROCKMAN]

SeaGypsy – Pure speculation on my part but I can’t escape a vision of Egypt’s future with respect to oil. First, there shouldn’t be any doubt about who really rules the country and has for decades: the military. The US govt has paid the military $billions over the year to maintain peace with Israel. We had a certain amount of leverage with them. Now we face the problem of supporting them after they forcibly removed a democratically elected leader.

Given Egypt’s financial condition the military needs the financial support we provide. A great opportunity for China to step in and become the military’s new best friend. The monies the US sends Egypt is pocket change for the Chinese compared to their global activities. And unlike US laws that prohibit directly bribing politicians the Chinese have no such restrictions. Besides money China has sophisticated weapon systems the Egyptian military could make good use of especially dealing with an increasingly angry population.

Why would China make such a move? Same old answer: oil. Hundreds of millions of bbls of Persian Gulf oil transits through Egypt to the EU every year. Even before the coup China announced plans to build the largest refinery ever in Egypt. Again, speculation but not difficult to imagine China signing long term supply deals with Persian Gulf oil exporters to supply the new refinery. All the product may still go to the EU…at least initially. Now the exporters have increased the value stream to their benefit. Egypt would then have a big chip in the fossil fuel game. The Egyptian military would have a wealthy friend…a friend who needs security for their refinery in a rather unstable region.

So some obvious winners. But on the surface it doesn’t appear that China gains much more than some refinery profits. But when the day comes that China needs those products more than the profit margin by selling to the EU the energy supply game could significantly change literally overnight. It wouldn’t cost much to lay product pipelines back to the Persian Gulf. From there an easy sail to China. So the oil exporters get their same profits. The Egyptian military remains well financed. The Egyptian people get a little homegrown commerce and China gets all the product. Everyone is content...except the EU.

Again, my speculation. But if you’re a chess player the Chinese plan to build a big refinery in Egypt seems an obvious move and telegraphs their ultimate motive IMHO.

[SeaGypsy]

A democratically elected leader with zero interest in democracy.
A real democrat's aim is as close as possible to 100% vote. Morsi was elected on barely over 30% on the basis of his Islamic position in an Islamic country and the first thing he did was to put Sharia ahead and over the constitution.

Under Morsi, 'honor killings' would have gone completely unpunished. Is that worth the tag of 'Democracy'?

[ROCKMAN]

There are a variety of reasons to criticize what would be in effect a dictatorship in Egypt. But it does provide a stability to do productive business especially when the primary beneficiaries are the capital source (China) and TPTB (the military). This could be viewed as one scenario for the MADOR concept: instead of China using their military power to secure oil they simply fund a surrogate. In this case the Egyptian military. Maybe the Angolan politicians/military will start looking for a big payday. An I can think of no other operation besides the Chinese that is better suited to dealing with Nigeria. Especially true now that Nigeria is suffering a significant loss of market share as their imports to the US are being replaced by Canadian and US sources. Remember the report of China's plan to build (I think) three new refineries in Nigeria.

The Chinese have a well established model to learn from: the US support of dictators/monolithic govts in its efforts to counter communism/socialism. China can follow the same path but with a different goal: controlling oil.

Dot…dot…dot

[Plantagenet]

My reading of the current situation is that Obama's people have been trying to do a treasonous deal with the Muslim Brotherhood over the Sinai and Hamas

I hadn't heard about that particular conspiracy theory. VERY INTERESTING!

[Plantagenet]

... instead of China using their military power to secure oil they simply fund a surrogate. In this case the Egyptian military.

One small quibble: Actually, it is the US who is funding the Egyptian military.

I can think of no other operation besides the Chinese that is better suited to dealing with Nigeria. Especially true now that Nigeria is suffering a significant loss of market share as their imports to the US are being replaced by Canadian and US sources. Remember the report of China's plan to build (I think) three new refineries in Nigeria.

The Chinese have a well established model to learn from: the US support of dictators/monolithic govts in its efforts to counter communism/socialism. China can follow the same path but with a different goal: controlling oil.

Yes.

The US seems to have almost an allergy to using our military aid as a lever to controlling oil (cf: Iraq, where US oil companies came up last when Iraq was awarding oil concessions after the US "liberated" the country from Saddam).

[ROCKMAN]

P - Read again: I pointed out that the US has provided the Egyptian military with $billions in support over the years. And we're still shipping fighters to them. But the Chinese could increase that support 20X and that wouldn't represent even 1% of what that new refinery will cost to build. And the Egyptian military could execute 50,000 civilians in the next month and it wouldn't matter to the Chinese. How would the US respond?

You want a wacko conspiracy: the Chinese are secretly supporting the Brotherhood to force the E. military to crush them causing the US to break all ties with Egypt. If I ran China and had the ability to try that gambit I would. But, then again, I am one of those dirty oil patch bastards, ain't I? LOL

[Plantagenet]

the Egyptian military could execute 50,000 civilians in the next month and it wouldn't matter to the Chinese. How would the US respond?

Probably the same way Obama has responded to Assad and the killing of tens of thousands of civilians in Syria----lots of words but next to nothing else.

... a wacko conspiracy: the Chinese are secretly supporting the Brotherhood to force the E. military to crush them causing the US to break all ties with Egypt. If I ran China and had the ability to try that gambit I would.

China doesn't have to support the Muslim Brotherhood to get them to do stupid things so the E military would crush them----the Muslim Brotherhood did that all by itself.

----------------


The Muslim brotherhood are fundamentalist morons --- there is no need to blame China for the stupid things the Muslim Brotherhood has done in Egypt.

[Ibon]

Just a couple of thoughts reading the past couple of posts. If the middle east hasn't been able to progress very much toward democracy while living in the relative affluence of abundant oil and the lower population numbers of the past, the prospect of democracy gaining any kind of foothold during increasing environmental stresses due to over population, water shortages, oil shortages and economic hardship are practically nill, in fact you can pretty much come to the pragmatic conclusion that you better support a strong arm military as in the case of Egypt.

The reason for this is because on a global scale that is exactly what we see happening in all countries that are confronting reality of the 21st Century living with increasing constraints, economic hardships and environmental disruptions. Less democracy and more authoritative rule. All countries, including the USA, Europe, China etc.

If China didn't have to manage 1.5 billion people on degraded agricultural land, perhaps the Tiananmen Square massacre years ago could have lead to democracy and the ouster of the communist party, but it didn't, for a very good reason. China would be unmanageable as a democracy in the same way that democracy is not possible in an apartment of 20 sharing one bathroom. There has to be authority.

How do you think the people of Greece are regarding Brussels and Germany at the moment?

We are watching the same process unfold in the USA, real time, right now. Stronger government control, stronger surveillance, corporate control, disregard for private rights.

Environmental constraints will lead to more authoritative rule. regardless if this is secular or religious societies.

Egypt is indeed the poster child for nations in the 21st century.

[ROCKMAN]

Ibon - Analysis that is as sad as it is true IMHO. It just seems like there isn't nearly enough time for the world as a whole to alter BAU.

[Plantagenet]

democracy is not possible in an apartment of 20 sharing one bathroom. There has to be authority.

Modern western states aren't really democracies where every decision has to constantly reargued with every citizen---modern western states are Republics.

There is plenty of authority in a Republic. The US prosecuted the second world war, first world war and civil war quite nicely---all three wars provide examples of a strong executive branch capable of doing anything a dictator can do, but doing it within the context of a Republic.

Going further back in time, the British Empire during the 19th century was effectively a Republic, with a PM running things and being overseen by Parliament, the Venetian Republic conquered and dominated the eastern Mediterranean for hundreds of years with elected Doges, and what we think of as the Roman Empire was actually largely established by the Roman Republic, which was run by elected Senators overseeing a pair of Consuls acting as rulers.


Roman Consul addresses the Roman Senate