[Graeme]

Yes, Crimea may already be gone. But we have to make absolutely clear – and in the most credible way possible – that Russian military intervention in other regions of Ukraine is a red line that will mean war with Ukrainian and NATO military forces if it is crossed. U.S. and NATO naval forces need to be deployed to the Black Sea in close proximity to the Ukrainian Coast. Military forces of neighboring NATO member countries, meanwhile, should be deployed closer to the Ukrainian border.

This all presupposes that the government in Kiev will request such support, and that Ukrainian military forces, which have been largely absent for the past two days, also need to be ready to be deployed. If Ukraine's military and/or NATO is not prepared to take such measures, then we are simply letting ourselves look foolish with empty threats. But doing nothing would be a terrible misjudgment. Putin has proven agile in asserting Russian interests, and for the West to be effective in its response will require immediate, focused, and forceful action to make Putin recalculate his risk/reward equation.

cnn

[AndyA]

11 Times Russian Leaders Condemned The Use Of Force Without U.N. Approval

But the US did it anyways.

Exactly, now the shoe is in the other mouth.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

Enough of this -- we need troops massed in Poland, we must show strength, then negotiate with the Russians and we can both respect each other. Putin will not bow to sanctions. But Russians will compromise with a strong equal.

Putin doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who will back down, he'll take all comers. Obozo on the other hand....

[AndyA]

G8 becomes the G7, Sochi meeting suspended:

Ukraine crisis: G7 condemns Russia military build-up
The world's seven major industrialised powers also suspended preparations for the G8 summit in Sochi in June.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26412914

How many G# meetings has Putin missed now anyway?

[AndyA]

Yes, Crimea may already be gone. But we have to make absolutely clear – and in the most credible way possible – that Russian military intervention in other regions of Ukraine is a red line that will mean war with Ukrainian and NATO military forces if it is crossed. U.S. and NATO naval forces need to be deployed to the Black Sea in close proximity to the Ukrainian Coast. Military forces of neighboring NATO member countries, meanwhile, should be deployed closer to the Ukrainian border.

This all presupposes that the government in Kiev will request such support, and that Ukrainian military forces, which have been largely absent for the past two days, also need to be ready to be deployed. If Ukraine's military and/or NATO is not prepared to take such measures, then we are simply letting ourselves look foolish with empty threats. But doing nothing would be a terrible misjudgment. Putin has proven agile in asserting Russian interests, and for the West to be effective in its response will require immediate, focused, and forceful action to make Putin recalculate his risk/reward equation.

cnn

Yeah not sure the west is capable of that sort of thing, never has been. Just another warpig rant anyway.

[Sixstrings]

Just another warpig rant anyway.

Fareed Zakaria's a smart guy. Usually wonkish and dull and boring.. he's been doing that foreign affairs show on CNN for years.. but he's smart and no hothead. He's right. Very balanced in his analysis. No political angle or emotion.

[Loki]

Loki, you should try reading before commenting, had you done so, you would have found some interesting things, the first posting for example comes mainly from a guy in Kiev, who has little good to say about the Russians or the West. The problem with knee jerk reactions is, in cases like this, you might just be wrong. Or don't read, and don't comment, it's usually a mistake to comment on things you haven't read, since you haven't read them. Why not try reading it, then comment? Point out the errors, historical / cultural omissions, I'm open minded, or try to be. Or don't, and don't comment, up to you.

Rage Dude get a grip, I didn't insult yo mama.

I did, in fact, read Orlov's latest screed after my last post, as I suspected it's the typical Pravda rubbish he always posts. He hits all the main propaganda points, neo-Nazis taking over in Kiev, conspiracy theories about who actually killed all the protesters (neo-Nazis), all sorts of irrelevant trips back into Nazi history, random pot shots at Americans, blaming "the West" for all of Ukraine's troubles, fawning Putin love, etc.

Meanwhile not a single critical thing to be said about Putin's response, or Russian ultra-nationalism, or what Russian rule meant for ethnic Ukranians (Google Holodomor why don't ya). Not to mention what this latest phase of Russian expansionism might mean for European stability.

[radon1]

good lord it's all lies

It may be lies, but the troops are definitely in there.

[Sixstrings]

NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea
Action may provoke -- but so does doing nothing.

What is NATO's move?

However, hope is not a strategy, and therefore further action should be considered. Planning is vital to laying out options to decision makers, and NATO's military planners should have a busy weekend at least.

This is a classic case of a situation where the United States should be working in lock step with our allies around the world, but especially our European friends and most notably the 28 members of the NATO alliance.

NATO should call an immediate emergency session and weigh its options in the political, diplomatic, economic, and military dimensions.
In the military sphere, these include ordering the Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), led by U.S. General Phil Breedlove, to conduct prudent planning and present options in response to the situation. While such planning should be left to the current commanders and military experts, some ideas to consider would include:

Increasing all intelligence-gathering functions through satellite, Predator unmanned vehicles, and especially cyber.
Using the NATO-Ukrainian Council and existing military partnerships with the Ukrainian military to share information, intelligence, and situational awareness with authorities in Kiev.

Providing advice to Ukrainian armed forces to prepare and position themselves in the event of further conflict.
Developing NATO contingency plans to react to full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to a partial invasion likely of Crimea. NATO contingency planning can be cumbersome, but in Libya it moved quickly.

Assigning one of the NATO Joint Force Commands (either Naples, Italy, or Brunsum, Netherlands) into direct overwatch of the situation.
Standing up NATO crisis centers to full manning, especially at SHAPE and the relevant Joint Force Command.

Ensuring that the Land and Maritime Component Commands (Northwood in the United Kingdom and Izmir, Turkey, respectively) are conducting prudent planning in their areas of expertise and feeding their analysis to the Joint Force Command.

Bringing the NATO Response Force, a 25,000 man sea, air, land, special forces capability to a higher state of alert.
Convening allies with cyber-capabilities (this is not a NATO specialty) to consider options -- at a minimum to defend Ukraine if it is attacked in this domain (as Georgia was).

Sailing NATO maritime forces into the Black Sea and setting up contingency plans for their use.

Many will consider any level of NATO involvement provocative and potentially inflammatory. Unfortunately, the stakes are high and the Russians are moving. Sitting idle, without at least looking at options, is a mistake for NATO and would itself constitute a signal to Putin -- one that he would welcome.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/01/nato_needs_to_move_now_on_crimea

The above is an opinion piece. Far as I know, none of it is being done -- all I know about is that NATO put out a joint statement. (I'm sure the intel part is being done and all assets are on Ukraine like white on rice)

[Sixstrings]

It may be lies, but the troops are definitely in there.

Ugh Radon, come on. All hot air and BS aside, I care about journalism and the facts. I'm not trolling. Did you just hear this on tv and radio? I googled and NOTHING comes up. Please explain what you mean by Turkish and NATO forces in Ukraine.

This is really important here, if Russians are just outright lied to and you all believe it.

[ralfy]

Just another warpig rant anyway.

Fareed Zakaria's a smart guy. Usually wonkish and dull and boring.. he's been doing that foreign affairs show on CNN for years.. but he's smart and no hothead. He's right. Very balanced in his analysis. No political angle or emotion.

Note his views on the war in Iraq, etc.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?ti ... ed_Zakaria

[Sixstrings]

Ukraine Crisis May Thwart Obama Plans From Iran to China

If the president’s handling of the crisis reinforces doubts about his toughness in addressing foreign challenges, as some critics assert, it could affect a more diverse range of issues: Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, North Korea’s nuclear weapons advances and China’s increasingly aggressive regional posture.

The tense situation in Ukraine, with its echoes of the Cold War, has put Obama at the forefront of the crisis as European leaders pressure Russia to drop military threats and withdraw forces from Ukraine’s Crimea region.

“President Obama faces the most difficult international crisis of his presidency,” former U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said in a conference call with reporters today organized by the Atlantic Council, a foreign-policy research organization based in Washington.

In addition to a growing confrontation with Russia, Obama faces an increasingly assertive China that is pressing territorial disputes and stirring rising nationalism in Japan and South Korea; resurgent Islamic extremism in Syria, Iraq, and northern Africa; the nuclear negotiations with Iran and unrest in nations such as Egypt, Venezuela and Thailand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/ukraine-crisis-may-thwart-obama-plans-from-iran-to-china.html

I already said it way back in the Ukraine thread: if O screws this up, then Ukraine will become his Katrina.

[AndyA]

Just another warpig rant anyway.

Fareed Zakaria's a smart guy. Usually wonkish and dull and boring.. he's been doing that foreign affairs show on CNN for years.. but he's smart and no hothead. He's right. Very balanced in his analysis. No political angle or emotion.

Right so a smrt guy reckons it's worth going to war with Russia over the Ukraine. He should be on the first transport over there, and so should all the other warpigs (why should they go out and fight, they leave that to the poor). War is apparently preferable to looking foolish. What a joke.
Peace prize winner Obama was humiliated over Syria, tried to stir up some shit in Ukraine with a textbook regime change uprising. Thinking he could ride in on a white horse with shining armour. Gaining a prize with a new Nato member, and stealing Russia's warm water port. Putin was obviously one step ahead of him, and has gained Crimea without bloodshed. He just needs to sit back and wait for a few more states to defect. Doesn't need to fire a shot. He doesn't want radioactive Kiev, he can leave the Western powers with all the Ukranian debts, as they fall over themselves to bailout the remaining bankrupt states. Checkmate. If Western powers want a hot war, they will get it, and it wont be Russia alone, China is even more sneaky then Russia, and how many oil exporters will fall in with China?
All Putin has done is checkmate Obama again. Maybe Obama is feeling buthurt, better get used to it. I don't see any world leader with balls except Putin.
If there is war over this, it will be WWIII and it will be the West's fault, and everyone knows it.
US Navy near the Ukraine wont mean shit unless they are prepared to use it (they wont) just like they didn't in Syria. Remember how Russia kept building its fleet near Tartus?

[AndyA]

Do you think Putin would sit back do nothing while he loses his only warm water port? Big mistake.

[Quinny]

Has anyone thought - How can the Ukrainians pay for a war when they can't even pay their gas bill?

[radon1]

blaming "the West" for all of Ukraine's troubles,

Interesting that everyone is going blaming "Them", or blaming "Those" on the Ukrainian woes, blaming everyone except those who should really take responsibility for them - Ukrainians themselves.

fawning Putin love, etc.

This one is really not easy to understand. Orlov is going overall going quite rosy about Russia. Maybe this is something to do with him being from the same city as Putin, maybe they lived nearby for a while.

[Quinny]

Do you have to radon? Next thing 6 & plant will have them related, or at least in a relationship!!

[radon1]

Do you have to radon? Next thing 6 & plant will have them related, or at least in a relationship!!

Whom?

[ROCKMAN]

While I didn't no much about this region before thanks to current news coverage I are now an "expert". LOL. First, what is this silly chatter about Russia invading Crimea? Crimea is Russia and always has been. It's would be the same às suggesting the US might invade Guantanamo. Just because there's a line on map showing Crimea falling with in the Ukraine border? Check out the map of Cuba.

I've to see the economic connection be Russia and the Ukraine as something of MAD relationship: mutually assured destruction. But not equally do. Russia would be hurt if the lose the fossil fuel throughput of the U. But the U economy, what's left of it, would be destroyed. Is NATO and the rest of the world ready to supply the U with all it needs for folks to survive? I seriously doubt it. It would the Berlin airlift look like a neighborhood Meals On Wheels.

But the critical question: what would Putin do if faced with the loss of his energy conduit thru the U? Pure speculation on my part: kill every living being that stood in his way including NATO troops. There's no doubt he has the conventional land and naval forces to do so IMHO. I doubt he would hesitate for the sake of thousands of dead Russian troops.

So now it all seems to boil down to political compromise. And that would be Putin getting everything he wants IMHO.

[Timo]

Any military conflict between Russia/Putin and the West/NATO/USA would very quickly spin out of control, and soon would not be limited to only Crimea and the Ukraine. It's been 70 years since the last world war. Do we really want another one? Crimea is, and has for centuries been culturally Russian. This is not a battle in which the US wants to engage. The costs are far too high. With this brand new conflict on the world scene, on top of Syria, Egypt, N. Korea, Venezuela, China/Japan, and all of the Springtimes emerging around all of the NA/ME, and AQ, there is absolutely no need to add fuel to the fires. We'll very quickly burn down the house.

[Keith_McClary]

While I didn't no much about this region before thanks to current news coverage I are now an "expert". LOL. First, what is this silly chatter about Russia invading Crimea? Crimea is Russia and always has been. It's would be the same às suggesting the US might invade Guantanamo. Just because there's a line on map showing Crimea falling with in the Ukraine border? Check out the map of Cuba.

A closer analogy would be a popular uprising in some dictatorship that hosted a US base. Like Bahrain. The US got their House of Saud buddies to do the dirty work for them. I don't recall waves of moral indignation when the made-in-USA tanks rolled in to brutally crush the protests.