[radon1]

How were they borrowing, with home equity loans? So is the bailout a housing bubble bailout? Is real estate now under water in Russia, worth less than what's been mortgaged out on it?

No, consumer lending. But mortgages will be hit too.

[AgentR11]

Is it just Kasha you hate, or are you offended by oatmeal and cream of wheat (wheat farina) too?

Sorry, my oatmeal is awesome. You go away now. Keep your nasty Kawhatever.

[Subjectivist]

Is it just Kasha you hate, or are you offended by oatmeal and cream of wheat (wheat farina) too?

Sorry, my oatmeal is awesome. You go away now. Keep your nasty Kawhatever.

I grew up eating hot cereal, though technically boiled buckwheat groats are not a cereal because they are not a grass grain. Fried Kasha makes excellent ent pancakes, though my wife doesn't care for the taste.

[dissident]

I saw the mobile soup kitchen images too; maybe this is a different set, I dunno. The last one claiming to show hungry people in St. Petersburg turned out to be disappointed visitors to a festival that had run out of that nasty boiled buckwheat that is apparently very important.

Not to say there aren't hungry people in St. Petersburg. There's hungry people in Houston and Dallas today as well, who will visit soup kitchens and other charitable sources...

So, how long can they tolerate high inflation, probably a few decades. How long will they have to tolerate high inflation now that the ruble is actually trading at fair value for the first time in the history of mankind? Probably three years. Inflation isn't really a big deal. DEFLATION is devastating, and can quickly lock an economy into decades of zero and negative growth.

The buckwheat kernels have to be toasted. It is not nasty at all compared to rice and a hell of a lot more nutritious.

Compared to 2008-9 there is nothing happening with the Russian economy right now that merits the sort of hysterical coverage it is getting. Floating (dirty or not) of the ruble was a very smart move.

We'll have to wait and see how far the sanctions war goes. As of now its impact generates more verbal hot air than it is worth.

[radon1]

Putie weathered the 2008-9 meltdown and somehow the current blip that is miniscule in comparison is supposed to be the end of days for "the Russian tyranny and its despot Putin".

Put the crack pipe down.

I am no less sure in Putin's superhuman abilities than you are. Even if a big asteroid hits Kremlin, Putie will play chess with him, and play poker with him, and then make some clever judo trick to him and the asteroid will flee away back to the depths of space ashamed. And Puttie-ver will be alive and kicking.

This does not change the fact that Russia faces a serious banking crisis, however.

[Keith_McClary]

The buckwheat kernels have to be toasted. It is not nasty at all compared to rice and a hell of a lot more nutritious.

It can soak up several times it's weight in gravy.

[dissident]

Putie weathered the 2008-9 meltdown and somehow the current blip that is miniscule in comparison is supposed to be the end of days for "the Russian tyranny and its despot Putin".

Put the crack pipe down.

I am no less sure in Putin's superhuman abilities than you are. Even if a big asteroid hits Kremlin, Putie will play chess with him, and play poker with him, and then make some clever judo trick to him and the asteroid will flee away back to the depths of space ashamed. And Puttie-ver will be alive and kicking.

This does not change the fact that Russia faces a serious banking crisis, however.

This is just your proof by assertion. The banks faced much more risk in 2008-9.

[radon1]

http://top.rbc.ru/business/29/12/2014/5 ... 86d446225f

(google translated)

Western companies have found ways to circumvent the sanctions to work in the Arctic

US and European sanctions do not prevent foreign service companies continue to operate in the Russian Arctic. To this end, they have dismissed or transferred to other parts of the US and European employees who worked in Russia and participate in tenders their Russian "daughter" or divisions of other countries that do not impose sanctions

In late July, the US and EU imposed an embargo on exports to Russia of some types of equipment designed for arctic, deepwater and shale oil projects. And in September, the US banned American companies to deliver the goods, technologies and services needed to implement these projects, in favor of the six Russian companies - "Gazprom", "Rosneft", Lukoil, "Surgutneftegaz", "Gazprom Neft" and Novatek.

But this did not prevent the largest US oilfield services company Baker Huges and Schlumberger for the tender "Gazprom oil" on Prirazlomnoye field in the Pechora Sea that were announced after the imposition of sanctions. Thus, the services' technical and technological support directional drilling at the field "Prirazlomnoe" for 1.46 billion rubles. ready to JSC "Baker Hughes" and Schlumberger Logelco Inc. (Registered in Panama), according to the tender documents, "Gazprom Neft Shelf" ("daughter" of "Gazprom oil", the tender was announced in October, the results have not yet announced). A "work on the preparation and engineering support of drilling fluids, liquids and killing injection in the construction of five wells on Prirazlomnoye" with an initial value of 280 million rubles. volunteered to perform, including the Russian Joint-Stock Company "Baker Hughes" and LLC "Schlumberger Technology." The representative of "Gazprom oil" said only that the company has received applications from candidates and now completes their assessment. A vice president for interaction with public authorities Schlumberger in Russia and Central Asia Alexander Borisov told RBC that the company "continues to monitor the situation closely with the sanctions and restrictions the US and the EU and shall take all measures necessary to ensure compliance with applicable laws." Additional comments he refused. The representative of Baker Hughes did not respond to a request RBC.

[Sixstrings]

No, consumer lending. But mortgages will be hit too.

Well what is that exactly, credit cards? Putin's going to do a credit card bailout? Or personal loans? Over here, the "living beyond your means" was credit cards but mostly people tapping home equity, back before the housing collapse.

I've never heard of a consumer credit bailout. Must be nice.

[radon1]

Personal loans. No bailout, just covering banks' capital drawdowns caused by defaults. Does not change much though.

[Sixstrings]

Russians rage at America

Today, according to the respected Moscow ‘Levada Center,’ which measures political sentiment in Russian society, 74% of Russians have negative feelings towards the USA. It hasn’t always been like this; in the 1990s, 80% had positive attitude toward America.

...

Anti-American sentiment has been growing slowly in Russia since the war in former Yugoslavia. But the sharp recent increase happened as a result of the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after the ‘Russian annexation of Crimea.’ For example, just last week Visa and MasterCard completely stopped their operations in Crimea, leaving more than 2 million people there without access to their money. 75% of Russians do not believe that their country is responsible for the events in Ukraine. On the contrary, they blame the US.

When the sanctions began, many Russian businesses responded by putting up ‘Obama Is Sanctioned Here’ signs on their doors and windows.
http://observer.com/2014/12/russians-rage-against-america/

So when Yeltsin was president, 80% of them liked us. Now 80% of them dislike us, and despite the reality of Russian annexation and incursion into Ukraine, Russians blame the US for the Ukraine situation.

Maybe they just need another Yeltsin and they'd like us again and the sanctions and wars can stop. Way back then, Yeltsin told the duma it would be crazy to go to war with Ukraine to try to grab Sevastopol, and would lead to disaster for Russia.

Russian shops show their anti-US sentiment by putting out American flag doormats for customers to wipe their feet on



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2886329/The-stores-stripes-Russian-shops-anti-sentiment-putting-American-flag-doormats-customers-wipe-feet-on.html

I find this ironic:

By the words of the shopping center’s attorney Konstantin Trapaidze, the doormats with the American flag do not break any Russian law. “It is very probable that the doormats have a decorative character. Yes, people are walking on them but nobody prohibited this. They produce not only doormats with the flag on them but also furniture upholstery. The breaking of the law would be when someone would start burning such a doormat or real flag demonstratively, or tear it up.”

While an American flag doormat "of a decorative character" is legal, it would be illegal to BURN an American flag, or tear it up, in Russia -- along with any other flag, as that would be considered a political demonstration and I guess it's not allowed.

Whereas in the USA, first amendment free speech protects the right to burn an American flag, distasteful as it may be that's free speech and what the flag stands for to start with.

Will protests break out in Russia over the economic crisis?
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/228154-will-protests-break-out-in-russia-over-the-economic-crisis

Putin Shown Not ‘So Smart’ as Russia Economy Suffers, Obama Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/putin-shown-not-so-smart-as-russia-economy-suffers-obama-says.html

[radon1]

Why is this surprising? Obambino is openly bragging about making life in Russia miserable with his sanctions. So, the people's reaction is pretty natural.

[Timo]

So when Yeltsin was president, 80% of them liked us. Now 80% of them dislike us, and despite the reality of Russian annexation and incursion into Ukraine, Russians blame the US for the Ukraine situation.

Maybe they just need another Yeltsin and they'd like us again and the sanctions and wars can stop. Way back then, Yeltsin told the duma it would be crazy to go to war with Ukraine to try to grab Sevastopol, and would lead to disaster for Russia.

Channel Fox News, the Russians do. Absolutely everything that's wrong with the world is the fault of Obama. Fox News praises Macho Putin Man. Fox News wishes Putin here in US to lead us with unilateral, omnipotent powers. Fox News and Putin BFFs, they are.

[AgentR11]

Six, your problem is you are being taken for a ride by wishcasting media. Particularly egregious is "thehill" piece, which uses a phrase like ruble continues to fall, and asserts some legitamacy to the ruble's early pricing in the 30s.

Yet, when I pull up the 1 month chart for the USD / RUB; I see a currency that looks like its trading more or less cleanly, around a real, market value of 55. Yes, there's weird spike on Dec 15; which has a reasonable, if perhaps malevolent, explanation in a Rosneft refinance action using rubles for dollars. (still won't really know thats what they did for a while yet).

The hill piece is based on a flat out lie. The ruble is not continuing to fall; It was trading at 54 a month ago; it traded at 56 today; that's well within the twitchy up's and downs one should expect in a fairly shallow currency pond with a few big fish swimming around with some transactions they need to make.

Last night, I looked at a bar menu, there were those goofy fruity slushy drinks on it. They were 150 ruble. You know what you pay for a slushy fruity drink around here? About 3 bucks. That's starting to look very much like purchasing power parity. Russia has escaped the resource-export state trap. Whether they survive and thrive through the next step remains to be seen; but... I think they have good odds.

btw.. food imported from Ukraine to Crimea *today*.. takes about 15-20 minutes to clear customs/healthwhatever.

[Withnail]

So when Yeltsin was president, 80% of them liked us. Now 80% of them dislike us, and despite the reality of Russian annexation and incursion into Ukraine, Russians blame the US for the Ukraine situation.

Most of the population of the world dislikes the US government, and with good reason.

Never mind that you have Uncle Tom governments in a lot of countries who do your bidding.

[Sixstrings]

Venezuela says US is doing an oil war to "destroy Russia" and to destroy Venezuela's leftist Revolution. (sorry folks, there's shale in the ground, it makes money, it's as simple as that -- there's no conspiracy, just bad timing for Russia to build an empire and I don't know what the heck Venezuela will do because they were always a hot mess even with high oil prices).

Venezuela accuses US of starting oil war to 'destroy' Russia and Venezuela

"Did you know there's an oil war?” Maduro asked the leaders of Venezuela’s state-run businesses in a speech Monday in which he accused the United States of trying to flood the market with shale oil. “And the war has an objective: to destroy Russia. It's a strategically planned war ... also aimed at Venezuela, to try and destroy our revolution and cause an economic collapse," Maduro added.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/12/30/venezuela-russiaoil.html

Due to economic troubles and falling oil prices, Russia may not be able to afford its new planned long range stealth bomber. Meanwhile, the US is going forward with its $50 billion LRS-B bomber program, at half a billion dollars per jet.

Get Ready, America: Russia Wants a New Stealthy, Long-Range Bomber

Russia is developing a new strategic bomber called the PAK-DA as part of its post-Soviet military modernization plan, but with the price of oil falling rapidly, there are questions as to whether that nation will be able to afford the new plane.

There is little concrete information about the new Russian bomber—but a stealthy long-range penetrating strike aircraft is not cheap. The Pentagon’s secretive new Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) program is aiming to develop an aircraft that will cost roughly $550 million per jet. Developmental costs for the American aircraft—which will supposedly rely on “mature” technologies--are likely to be in $50 billion range.

While the Russia PAK-DA is not likely to be nearly as expensive, it is going to cost tens of billions of dollars at a time when Russia’s resource-based economy is collapsing into what could be a prolonged recession. Unlike the Soviet Union—which had a more or less full-service, if dysfunctional, economy—modern Russia is little more than a glorified petro-state. There are very real questions as to whether Russia can afford to complete the development of the PAK-DA.

Nonetheless, Russia’s Tupolev design bureau appears to be moving full steam ahead with the development of the new aircraft.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/get-ready-america-russia-wants-new-stealthy-long-range-11946

EDIT: Some other military news, there's some debris in space that was thought to be debris but then it was spotted doing "unusual maneuvers:"

Mysterious Russian satellite sparks ‘orbital weapon’ speculations

A mysterious Russian satellite orbiting Earth has global media in a bit of a spin after the object, thought to be space debris, conducted suspicious manoeuvres in space sparking rumors of little less than a revival of old Soviet satellite-killer program.

The unknown space object was reportedly launched into space 6 months ago, along with a cluster of three military communication satellites which received identification names Kosmos-2496, Kosmos-2497, Kosmos-2498. The fourth object was not declared to be among the rocket cargo, so was thought to be debris from the launch and dubbed “Object 2014-28E.” But after it was spotted performing some unusual maneuvers, the US military reportedly re-classified it as a satellite.

“It has been known about for a while, and certainly all satellites are tracked anyway as a matter of routine,” Colin Philp of the British Interplanetary Society told RT.

But with Russian authorities being mute regarding the matter, which might be a common practice for space missions, and anyone being able to track the object online –speculation mushroomed.

The Financial Times was the first to report on the mysterious object presumably being a “Russian satellite killer.” The UK international daily said the object is now being tracked by the US military under the NORAD designation 39765 and claimed that the secrecy around it caused “fears over the revival of a defunct Kremlin project to destroy satellites.”
http://rt.com/news/206843-russian-mysterious-satellite-kosmos/

[Sixstrings]

Six, your problem is you are being taken for a ride by wishcasting media. Particularly egregious is "thehill" piece, which uses a phrase like ruble continues to fall, and asserts some legitamacy to the ruble's early pricing in the 30s.

And Agent, you are the singuarly BEST pro-Russia spinner there is. I know you don't mean to, and you've said before you'd be the first to sign up for a draft if need be, but fact remains, I have not heard anyone anywhere paint things rosy for Russia as well as you do.

You give better arguments about taking Crimea, than Putin has ever come up with. Or any other Russians. They should have hired you.

But at the end of the day, what I say and what you say and what radon and dissident says doesn't matter a bit.

The reality of banking is what matters. The sanctions are hurting their economy. Inflation is way up. The Chinese didn't come through for them, as they'd hoped. So much capital has flown out, and continues to, and foreign corps aren't looking to put any money in; it's a trouble spot now, not a good business climate. Annexation and incursion and war is doing nothing but costing Russia a lot of money, while making no profit, and just bringing on sanctions.

For all the hot air and propaganda, you cannot go to war with banks. Putin will wind up backing down and backtracking. I don't know what this whole thing was ever about; the West never could be intimidated. Germany, France, the US, are no little Lithuania and we can't be pushed around.

The hill piece is based on a flat out lie. The ruble is not continuing to fall; It was trading at 54 a month ago; it traded at 56 today; that's well within the twitchy up's and downs one should expect in a fairly shallow currency pond with a few big fish swimming around with some transactions they need to make.

Agent, you're so well informed that you're actually way ahead of any journalists on this. But you're still wrong in the end, it's not rosy for Russia going forward. Interest rates like they've got now is just a bad spiral down.

[Sixstrings]

Why is this surprising? Obambino is openly bragging about making life in Russia miserable with his sanctions. So, the people's reaction is pretty natural.

Well yeah, I agree, was just sharing it as an item of interest. Russia news is slow lately. Is this whole thing really just going to end with a whimper, and recession? (and probably for the best, about 10,000 people really have died in Ukraine over this last year, Ukrainians and Russians. We do our trolling on this forum and make jokes but that's the reality, artillery fire into apartments, Russian paratrooper graves when supposedly there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine.)

The West doesn't want to make Russians' lives miserable any more than people want Iranians to be miserable. The sanctions are about the Russian governments' actions, not the people. The West just hopes there's change in Iran some day, and in Russia, and then the sanctions can be stopped.

And I never agreed with the sanctions in the first place, I've always said that actually strengthen's Putin. Would have been better just to get Ukraine into NATO and stick some US troops in Ukraine and go ahead and have a staring match between the US Army and the Russian Army and leave the bankers and people out of it.

P.S. radon, how do you think this all ends? Russia really isn't an Iran, Russia can't just have these sanctions on it for the next ten and twenty years, so how does it end?

[radon1]

so how does it end?

No idea.

[Withnail]

The West doesn't want to make Russians' lives miserable any more than people want Iranians to be miserable.

Of course it does, that's the purpose of sanctions.