[AgentR11]

With that in mind, whatever your welfare-takers report to you from Russia, you have to think a bit and understand that the current welfare state is unsustainable. UNSUSTAINABLE.

That, for certain, is true. There are way too many leaks from state coffers into goods and services for the consumer public that should be payed for at full market rate. I was looking at some taxi/bus fares, raised some at the end of 2014... They were *still* at or less than 5 cents / mile. That's nutso cheap, there is no getting around that being a massively subsidized rate; with its true costs highly displaced from the source of related revenue. That's just plain bad.

OTOH, I get that it would be impossibly disruptive to just wander around with a meataxe, chopping stupid subsidies with abandon (as pleasurable as it might be...); so I kinda have to give a thumbs up to the process and pace underway.

I still feel no sympathy for speculative behavior that ends badly; I don't object when a speculator makes a great bet and gets blindingly rich either. But the government should never bail out a speculator, and if its egregious, the government should rub their noses in it, forcefully. From what you report on restructuring loans back to rubles; that seems a fair way for the speculator to honestly suffer their losses while normalizing their current situation in the name of overly generous compassion; as long as they aren't being given a preferential exchange rate in the 30s that is.

[dissident]

Here is a sample of liberast "thinking":

Yekaterina Soldatova a Navalny cult member on Facebook about the recent demonstration of about 1500 in Moscow, which Reuters claimed was 15,000:

I refuse to attend any more of these events. Not while these people continue to walk right by us on Tverskaya Street buying gifts like nothing was happening, and then had the audacity to laugh at us; just wait until those people lose all their money, and their jobs, and then see how they howl! At that point, I’ll go out again to watch them from the side. O Oleg, Alexei [Brothers Navalny], I really feel for you. I did my best for you, I swear, but the (Russian) people are hopeless. Screw them.

How dare those people ignore your peculiar agenda. They are such "bydlo".

[Sixstrings]

"All for Empire in Crimea and the Putin regime? wtf, ya know? Maybe Russians will get tired of this stuff after a while."

So, if I speculate on Mexican Peso, using my house as collateral, and at first make 50 grand or so, and then I push it too far and the FED QE's a little too hard, and I go down a net 10 grand; its all of a sudden the US Government's fault and they should be responsible for MY speculative risk?

No. Its entirely right that these folks playing amatuer currency speculator are getting hosed.

Agent, you're so cold sometimes. You're probably an INTJ, whereas I am an INFJ.

These are FAMILIES. Not speculators. They are good people that go to work every day same as anyone else, except they are Russian and things are kind of screwy there in the best of times, and when they went to the bank this is all that was offered to them.

That's what one woman interviewed in the CNN report said, she just went to the bank and they told her that's all there was, this dollar mortgage. So that's in 2008. How the heck is she supposed to be some kremlinologist or geopolitical mastermind that could have predicted what Putin would do in a few years? If nobody else predicted it, either?

The Russian government CAUSED this problem by yanking Russia out of the West and tanking the ruble and now a lot of working people are left in the lurch through no fault of their own. Going to the bank and getting a mortgage isn't the same thing as sitting on his computer and speculating on Mexican pesos. These are just families that went to get a mortgage, they had no idea all this would happen in a few years -- the kremlin did all this, it's on them, they ought to help these people out.

[Sixstrings]

No bailout, but the banks have apparently done a bit of restructuring for them, fixing the liability at some exchange rate and converting the dollar mortgages into rouble ones, with a quiet financial backing of the government. Not a sweet deal, the borrowers' reliability record destroyed anyway, but something. Those forex mortgagers held a couple of protesting rallies, and the government gave in. They react really fast to any sign of mass public protests, fearing for a local maidan obviously. On another occasion a guy sat in his car for nine hours protesting about forced evacuation of his car, the thing went highly publicized in the media, and the state Duma immediately adopted a law limiting forced evacuations, obviously mindful of auto-maidan in Kiev.

Hm well that was fast, darn thing got fixed before I could even read the whole thread, it's really fixed? Those people in the CNN report won't be foreclosed on now?

Well heck, maybe a dictatorship that's scared to death of any kind of protest really isn't so bad. It took forever to get some kind of program going for homeowners here back in our financial crisis, and by then so many were already destroyed and thrown out on the street and their homes gone. The help came too late, and if I recall that program really didn't help a lot of people anyway.

So this this thing is fixed, really? That's good news.

(I'm joking about dictatorships being better , the flip side of how things are in Russia is all the state propaganda and state media and political opponents exiled or sent off to prison before they ever have a chance to get popular enough to challenge Putin.)

Anyhow maybe sanctions will work. If the government really does fear a maidan this much, then if things get bad enough they'll have no choice but to change.

[Sixstrings]

though he did do a good job publicizing facts of corruption,

That's the problem, right there. That is supposed to be a FREE and adversarial media's job -- the third estate -- to always be on top of government and investigating and exposing. One shouldn't have to be thankful for one lone voice in the national legislature, who is brave or stupid enough to speak out, and then he may or may not wind up in the hospital for it.

From what I've read, a lot of people in Russia do not even know what goes on in Russia, because government won't allow truly free press.

whatever your welfare-takers report to you from Russia, you have to think a bit and understand that the current welfare state is unsustainable. UNSUSTAINABLE.

Maybe some people think that it's spending money for nuclear bombers in the gulf of mexico that's unsustainable, and foreign wars and adventures, and dreams of 19th century Empire in a 21st century world where it's not even profitable. Maybe some people in Russia think money shouldn't all go to the oligarchs and top 1%, and ICBMs on trains, and rather could be distributed more to the 99%.

It's something to think about. Ain't nobody ever going to attack Russia, there really is no reason to spend all the money on weapons and oligarchs' megayachts.

[radon1]

Anyhow maybe sanctions will work. If the government really does fear a maidan this much, then if things get bad enough they'll have no choice but to change.

That's the only thing that they actually fear, a popular uprising. Obamuel with his sanctions and drones is not even close.

Ain't nobody ever going to attack Russia, there really is no reason to spend all the money on weapons

Military spending is OK, it's actually a necessary evil if you will.

[SeaGypsy]

If the thing with forex mortgages is fixed, why would 'borrower's reputations destroyed anyway'? (The thought of anyone not American borrowing & repaying any kind of long term $USD debt is totally crazy. Anyone with any knowledge of exchange rate fluctuation, flight to the Dollar in tough times etc could never recommend such terms.)

[radon1]

If the thing with forex mortgages is fixed, why would 'borrower's reputations destroyed anyway'?

Fixed - meaning sorted out. The mortgages underwent restructuring, which means modification of the contractual terms in favor of the borrowers, which means at least a partial de facto default on their obligations, which means impairment of the borrower reputation.

Russia maintains a country-wide database where the borrower records of good standing (or otherwise) are held. Hence the mortgage delinquents are not likely to raise any significant money via borrowing ever again.

[SeaGypsy]

Really? Wow that sucks. Restructuring in favour of the borrower is just called good business here, however I don't think we have ever had much direct offshore mortgage lending, nor a substantial rapid devaluation to emulate these pretty crazy circumstances. We also have sunset clause privacy laws where even an absolute default is struck off the accessible record After 7 years. Sounds like you are suggesting these records are with you for life in Russia?

[dissident]

If the thing with forex mortgages is fixed, why would 'borrower's reputations destroyed anyway'?

Fixed - meaning sorted out. The mortgages underwent restructuring, which means modification of the contractual terms in favor of the borrowers, which means at least a partial de facto default on their obligations, which means impairment of the borrower reputation.

Russia maintains a country-wide database where the borrower records of good standing (or otherwise) are held. Hence the mortgage delinquents are not likely to raise any significant money via borrowing ever again.

This is just confused blather. Who restructured their mortgages? The same companies that will not lend to them ever again? Seriously now, a mortgage restructuring is given by the lending institution and is in no way a default.

The notion that Russian citizens are getting mortgages offshore is pure nonsense. They are getting them from lenders in the Russian market. If the Russian government "screws over" these lenders then they cannot take it out on their borrowers. Unless they are racist filth.

http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... ws%2F19521

The restructuring entails converting mortgages to rubles. The total amount of foreign currency mortgages in Russia is small. I do not see any credit rating damage from this process to borrowers whatsoever.

[Sixstrings]

which means at least a partial de facto default on their obligations, which means impairment of the borrower reputation.

Russia maintains a country-wide database where the borrower records of good standing (or otherwise) are held. Hence the mortgage delinquents are not likely to raise any significant money via borrowing ever again.

Same in the US, any late payments affect one's credit score with the various credit bureaus.

The total amount of foreign currency mortgages in Russia is small.

It's 3.3% of all mortgages, affecting around 100,000 people.

[radon1]

Sounds like you are suggesting these records are with you for life in Russia?

They are, but the things are still evolving. The borrower database is probably less than a decade old, and only recently adopted for formal reference.

[Strummer]

Ain't nobody ever going to attack Russia

Just like nobody ever attacked Russia in the last 200 years, right.

[AgentR11]

Ain't nobody ever going to attack Russia

Just like nobody ever attacked Russia in the last 200 years, right.

I do understand and sympathize with the paranoia; and Russia definitely has more than adequate rationale for keeping a massive strategic nuclear force structure; essentially massive enough that you could detonate it all within Russian airspace and still end the world for everyone.

That said, I think Western Europe has moved on from the era of military conquest to move borders. Ask Generic German whether they'd rather have a business opportunity in Kaliningrad or NATO troops in Kaliningrad; and they won't see national pride, they see money; one makes money, the other costs money. Driving tanks does not make money.

So, no, NATO is not going to invade Russia. To keep NATO at bay, Russia need only keep its strategic forces up to date. I worry a bit more about the US attempting a zero-contact engagement with Russia; we're much more risk tolerant, and I worry that some of the morons in charge on this side of the pond don't believe Russia would use its nuclear deterrent unless the city of Moscow or St. Petersburg were threatened. Though, even with that risk tolerance, I have a hard time visualizing any strategically sound operation we could mount on a target in Russian territory. Its just not feasible.

[Strummer]

That said, I think Western Europe has moved on from the era of military conquest to move borders. Ask Generic German whether they'd rather have a business opportunity in Kaliningrad or NATO troops in Kaliningrad; and they won't see national pride, they see money; one makes money, the other costs money. Driving tanks does not make money.

That's only a matter of abundant resources. When Europe runs out of money and debt to pay for russian energy and other resouces, then we'll see. How are the Greeks or Spain or Hungary or whoever supposed to pay for the resources they need to live, in 10 years time, 15 years, 20 years? Germany can essentialy exchange its expertise (in the form of industrial production) for the energy imports, but the rest of Europe is screwed.

[Sixstrings]

That said, I think Western Europe has moved on from the era of military conquest to move borders. Ask Generic German whether they'd rather have a business opportunity in Kaliningrad or NATO troops in Kaliningrad; and they won't see national pride, they see money; one makes money, the other costs money. Driving tanks does not make money.

So, no, NATO is not going to invade Russia.

Well put.

To argue the other side, I'd just say that if Russia wants to keep Crimea then they will need an effective military for that (or if they still plan to grab more things). I think Ukraine's gonna come back in the long run, and they're doing a large buildup of their own. If Russia were weak, Ukraine could conceivably take Crimea back (and rightfully so, it was theirs to start with).

Another use for a dictator's big massive military is, of course, to turn it on his own people when the trouble starts.

[Withnail]

Another use for a dictator's big massive military is, of course, to turn it on his own people when the trouble starts.

[radon1]

Ukraine could conceivably take Crimea back

For what purpose? This nonsense again. The vast majority of people in Crimea do not want to have anything to do with Ukraine. Name anyone outside Ukraine who does actually.

Another use for a dictator's big massive military is, of course, to turn it on his own people when the trouble starts.

Putin turning military on "his own people"? Very unlikely. They'd refuse to follow orders and take him out first.

[Withnail]

Ukraine could conceivably take Crimea back

For what purpose? This nonsense again.

I wouldn't worry.

This Six Strings troll is a cowardly piece of shit who would never venture beyond .

Edit
Please respect the anonymity of member locations, if they do not publicize it. You can tell as much or as little about yourself as you wish and the same is true for all members.

[Sixstrings]

Ain't nobody ever going to attack Russia

Just like nobody ever attacked Russia in the last 200 years, right.

It's the 21st century.

Nobody ain't ever going to attack Russia, not with armies rolling over its border, I am as sure of that as the sky is blue.

The danger to Russia is destabilization of its economy and politics -- which is EXACTLY what they have invited, with this 19th century imperial militarism. It's counter-intuitive, all they've done is spend so much money to bring on the threat they supposedly are trying to prevent.