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Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 19:36:29

German government cyberattacked by pro Russian group in Ukraine:

German Government Websites Shut Down, and Ukraine Group Claims Responsibility

In a Russian-language statement posted on its website, a group identifying itself as CyberBerkut — using the slogan “We Won’t Forget. We Won’t Forgive.” — noted the support of Ms. Merkel’s government for Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/08/world/europe/german-government-websites-shut-down-and-ukraine-group-claims-responsibility.html?_r=0


What a big huge mess this thing still is, one year later, and we probably just had a break in it lately and it's going to get worse.

As an American, all I can say and hope is that Congress puts a lot more resources into the CIA and field intelligence *and the government has seriously got to start knowing exactly what is going on and EXACTLY what the Russian government and secret services are doing in Ukraine -- exactly.*

We need better intel all around, there should be outrage in Congress about this, we don't know for sure what goes on with Russia, we don't even know for sure if North Korea cyberattacked us. The sh*t has to stop, CIA needs a big funding boost, the government has got to know what is going on -- I suspect a lot of this stuff, in Ukraine, is Russian intel. But I ain't in charge of anything so it doesn't matter, but the administration in this country needs to know the facts for sure, if we are into cold war spy games or wtf is going on. The US gov really must get to the bottom of how much the pro russia stuff in Ukraine is homegrown versus from Russia, and Russian intel.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 19:50:55

Sixstrings wrote:He's in a war Agent, Ukraine was invaded man, what do you want, for him to be weak? That's what he says Moscow wants, a weak Ukrainian president. I don't want to see these civilian deaths either, so I'll tell you where it is headed if Russia does not give it up -- a Yugoslavia-type US led intervention to stop the war there.


Yes, he's in a war, and doing everything in his power to lose it catastrophically. War is not about weak and strong. War is about victory; and he has guaranteed himself defeat. No amount of "strong" will change that.

You win a war by being effective and making it possible for the enemy to surrender. Or, you win a war by killing ALL of the enemy. No amount of Western aid will enable him to kill all the residents of Donetsk. And his policy has made it impossible for his enemy to surrender. QED, Ukraine has been strategically defeated, by its own choices and actions.

All that is left is to choose the nature of surrender. My read on the ground action is the Ukraine has chosen to surrender at the current line of control with some quibbling around the donetsk airport, Pisky, and Avdiivka; currently the DNR forces have the airport trapped as a cauldron, nothing gets in or out without their inspection; but the Kiev forces holding the terminal are in a very strong fortification, which would probably take several thousand troops and very high casualties to permanently clear. Basically not worth the effort. Thus the current situation is Kiev sending food and supplies to the airport cauldron with the consent and inspection of the DNR forces. DNR forces apparently holding Pisky and Avdiivka. If Kiev hadn't idolized the "cyborg" thing; those kids would be out of that useless position and not be subject to periodic bombardment for sport. But genocidal lunatics don't mind killing kids for no militarily useful purpose.

Kiev has placed strong border controls along their line, with 7 approved crossings; crossing into Russia is of course completely unregulated by Kiev. Kiev is now engaged in two way commerce with Russia over energy, Kiev buying coal and gas, Crimea buying electricity; and gas transiting to the Eurozone without interruption. Fairly sane terms of surrender if you ask me. They loose some territory that wanted nothing to do with their Maidan and Western focus anyway; and supposedly was a drain on the treasury in the first place. (though I think they are counting Ukraine pensioners who happen to have lived there as part of that drain, which means, eventually, Ukraine will touch Eurozone law, and those pensions WILL be paid by Kiev whether they like it or not. Pensions being an earned liability, not a freeby act of kindness.)

I don't know what you read, but I think it's all pro Russia sources. I watch Ukraine Today on youtube, for one thing, and I dunno man either these Ukrainians are all fantastic actors or they really are in the right, what can I say. They all seem reasonable to me, and I do not see reasonable coming out of Russia and certainly not the separatists.


I read all kinds of sources, the most telling sources are of course Ukrainian sources written in Russian and Ukrainian, targetted at Russian and/or Ukrainian audiences. Russian tangential sources are also really good for getting a sense of the internal Russia. Reading anything either side puts in English themselves is a pointless exercise in watching advertisements.

nb... They seem reasonable to you, because they are reasonable sounding, meant to sell you on the point of view they want you to have. Given that I think both sides are evil, genocidal scum; its fair to say I don't share the point of view either side wants me to hold.



Do you even know about the one mining town that had a cossack come in off the train from Moscow and just declare the place a "cossack republic?" And they aren't even cossacks, there?[/qoutes]

There are tons of these kinds of things, on both sides, worthy of a laugh, but nothing more.

If Russia just wants to keep a Syria going on in Europe forever, and tens of thousands more dead, then that's not gonna happen. The West will stop this thing eventually, if it gets too bad, we will stop it because that's the right thing to do and we do not allow this stuff to go on in Europe and that is the bottom line on it.


You misread what Russia wants. Russia would *LOVE* to create a Transnistria thing along D&L; the continuing violence is counter to Russian interests as it makes it difficult to turn D&L into profit centers. And no, the West will not "stop this thing". One, because it won't get too bad, because Russia isn't pushing to expand the D&L partition, but only hold it; Kiev's demographics can not support the continuation of their offensive; and the West will not bleed to save the estates of some stupid oligarchs that run Kiev.

Something I am taken by, both by Syria and Ukraine, is that Russia has been able to maneuver itself into the tactically superior defensive position, leaving Western interests with the choice between a very expensive victory, or a cheap, ignominious stalemate. Since our interests in both Syria and Ukraine are very mediocre at best; the end result is inevitable. We're left applying pointless sanctions which end up empowering Putin and delinking Russia further from the interests of the West.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 19:51:20

(agent: I'll read you last post later, holy cow you can out-talk me. :razz: I do read your things though and learn a lot from what you post, I know you're well informed, we just differ on who we side with. But you know, the whole damn thing is a big mess over there. Ukraine may wind up being a archduke ferdinand after all and just dragging everyone into a big huge mess -- yet we cant give up east europe -- can't let a Syria go on forever, in Europe -- it's a tough problem.)

Couple things off Ukraine Today:

Store clerk in Russia arrested and charged for linking a couple pro Ukrainian videos.

Russian Accused of Extremism Over Ukraine posts: Store clerk charged with 'inciting ethnic hatred'

A store clerk from Russia’s eastern city of Yekaterinburg has been charged with inciting ethnic hatred after she posted online links to short films about events in Ukraine such as the country's fight against Russian-backed insurgents in its eastern regions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACKMcbd_Pnw


So that's concerning. They're just maidan type vids with music, no big deal, and this Russian woman gets arrested for it.

One of our Russian posters once yelled at me for "inciting ethnic hatred" or something, apparently this is actually a law and illegal in Russia. In America we just call it free speech and talking. You can't yell "fire" in a crowded movie theater here though, and there are "fighting words" considerations in US law, like bar fights or road rage. But politics? Go at it, it's a free country, here at least.

This is from 4 weeks ago, but interesting report from Ukraine Today about the latest at Donetsk airport:

Battle for Donetsk International Airport: Ukraine Today reports from east Ukrainian hotspot

The Battle for Donetsk International Airport is a close quarters conflict, with adversaries often fighting from building to building and even from floor to floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxgZxqioQ-M


Lithuanian defense ministry issues instructions to citizens on how to fight back against possible Russian hybrid war:

Lithuanian Guidelines to Counter Russian Hybrid War: Public warned over possible Kremlin aggression

The Lithuanian Minister of Defence said ‘after Russia repeated aggression against neighbours, this time in Ukraine, the need emerged to not only know how to act during the organiation of civil resistance, but also how to act under battlefield conditions’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ik6HjuaID80


Some Lithuanians begin a boycott of any consumer goods advertised on Russian state tv:

‘Don’t Buy Kremlin Propaganda’: Lithuanian activists call for boycott of goods in Russian TV ads

Lithuanian activists have marked goods advertised on Russian TV in a boycott campaign. The stickers on the products show a Colorado potato beetle surrounded by a slogan which says ‘Don’t buy Kremlin propaganda’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIS2YI7PBSM
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 22:18:24

Agent,

I just think the Ukrainian govt is doing a pretty good job. The Canadians LOVE them, did you ever see Poro's speech at their Parliament? They did everything but throw laurels at his feet. Canadian MPs were in *tears*.

*John Boehner* cried, when Poroshenko spoke at Congress.

Wolf Blitzer likes him, Christiane Amanpour likes him. You say he's "genocidal" and has done too much fighting the war, meanwhile he's got people on the maidan that heckled him for not doing enough. The man has done as well as anyone can.

He works well with all the Western leaders, he's one of them, he's in the club, it's good for Ukraine.

And their "nazi" prime minister gets along well too with world leaders:



By the way, this is the American that was appointed Ukraine's finance minister:

Ukraine's Voting Voices: Investing in Ukraine's Infrastructure Should be an Economic Priority
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWKd9hzS6mI


She's a hedge funder I guess, and she's been working in Ukraine for 22 years. I'm not a fan of banskters, but whatever else Ukraine has done for the last century hasn't worked out for them so it's time for some kind of change don't ya think?

They've got nowhere to go, but up, once war stops and they are free to make their deals with the United States and Germany and Poland and EU. We'll know five and ten years from now, whether their move West was good or not; the numbers will show it, whether they are still poorest in Europe, or not.

Ukraine also appointed 3 other foreigners to its cabinet, if I recall, a Lithuanian, an Estonian, and a Georgian. If anything, Ukraine's got a international vibe going on now, an American in the cabinet, and may wind up a leader in east europe -- along with Poland -- to counter Russia. The old soviet east europe needn't be united under a Russian flag, they can just band together, perhaps. (and the more they do that, the less we have to do, similar to Australia working with Japan and our Pacific allies not relying on us for everything anymore)
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 22:52:02

AgentR11 wrote:Yes, he's in a war, and doing everything in his power to lose it catastrophically.


I think he's done a good job. I'm too tired to link the articles, but he's got the army back up to 100% capacity.

Their military reorginization and buildup is ongoing, and American stuff from Afghanistan will be arriving. If things did get worse with Russia, then more US weapons aid would come. Congress just sent them $10 billion.

You win a war by being effective and making it possible for the enemy to surrender. Or, you win a war by killing ALL of the enemy. No amount of Western aid will enable him to kill all the residents of Donetsk. And his policy has made it impossible for his enemy to surrender. QED, Ukraine has been strategically defeated, by its own choices and actions.


You're being a bit offensive there and unfair, I really don't think anyone in west ukraine wants to see "people killed in donetsk," including Poroshenko. Agent man, if we had a foreign-stoked insurrection here in the US then you know as well as I do that the govt would mercilessly crush it and rightfully so, cuz unless there's a dictatorship then there is no right to rebellion, you VOTE you do not have a right to take arms against the govt and call yourself a separatist republic.

My read on the ground action is the Ukraine has chosen to surrender at the current line of control with some quibbling around the donetsk airport, Pisky, and Avdiivka;


I agree with you there.

currently the DNR forces have the airport trapped as a cauldron, nothing gets in or out without their inspection;


What about the "road of life," the nazi batallion right sector thing you talk about so much, guards that, and I thought that's how the Ukrainian army gets supplies into the airport.

but the Kiev forces holding the terminal are in a very strong fortification, which would probably take several thousand troops and very high casualties to permanently clear. Basically not worth the effort.


No, Russian army and the separatists have tried taking it many times and have not been able to.

Thus the current situation is Kiev sending food and supplies to the airport cauldron with the consent and inspection of the DNR forces. DNR forces apparently holding Pisky and Avdiivka.


See the Ukraine Today report I linked, it's 4 weeks old, are you saying since then that separatists now control that road into the airport and also the village of Pisky?

If Kiev hadn't idolized the "cyborg" thing; those kids would be out of that useless position and not be subject to periodic bombardment for sport.


The people are proud of their soldiers, holding the airport. It's like Texas and "remember the alamo."

Kiev has placed strong border controls along their line, with 7 approved crossings; crossing into Russia is of course completely unregulated by Kiev. Kiev is now engaged in two way commerce with Russia over energy, Kiev buying coal and gas, Crimea buying electricity; and gas transiting to the Eurozone without interruption. Fairly sane terms of surrender if you ask me. They loose some territory that wanted nothing to do with their Maidan and Western focus anyway; and supposedly was a drain on the treasury in the first place.


Fair enough. It is time, yep, for some autonomous agreement but you know what -- they see these separatists as Russian foreigners (the leaders and many fighters came in from Russia) and they see them as terrorists, so there would have to be some kind of new elections and you can't just have Russian foreigners in Ukrainian offices, or that's my opinion anyway.

I read all kinds of sources, the most telling sources are of course Ukrainian sources written in Russian and Ukrainian, targetted at Russian and/or Ukrainian audiences. Russian tangential sources are also really good for getting a sense of the internal Russia. Reading anything either side puts in English themselves is a pointless exercise in watching advertisements.


How do you translate it

There are tons of these kinds of things, on both sides, worthy of a laugh, but nothing more.


Both sides? Ukrainians have never entered Russia to create any republics there.

You misread what Russia wants. Russia would *LOVE* to create a Transnistria thing along D&L; the continuing violence is counter to Russian interests as it makes it difficult to turn D&L into profit centers.


Now you're making sense. Yes, the whole thing just costs Russia money and thousands of dead soldiers so far. Not that anyone in Russia can talk about that, or they go to jail, or that one duma member got beat up and put in the hospital.

All Putin is doing is just trying to keep his finger in the Ukrainian govt, somehow, to as much degree as he can, but it's just time to GIVE IT UP already. And do not do this in Lithuania or anywhere else.

Something I am taken by, both by Syria and Ukraine, is that Russia has been able to maneuver itself into the tactically superior defensive position, leaving Western interests with the choice between a very expensive victory, or a cheap, ignominious stalemate. Since our interests in both Syria and Ukraine are very mediocre at best; the end result is inevitable. We're left applying pointless sanctions which end up empowering Putin and delinking Russia further from the interests of the West.


That's some smart analysis.

At the end of the day though Agent, there really are millions of people in Ukraine that are angry at Russia and they want Russia to stop messing with them, and they do not want any more Russian meddling in their government, and they do not want Moscow to tell one of their presidents what to do, ever again.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 07 Jan 2015, 23:51:59

Afghanistan is complaining, they say if we give Ukraine the stuff we promised to leave with them, then maybe they'll leave us.

Ya know what.. I'm a voter and taxpayer.. I don't like Afghanistan anyway, I'd far rather see Ukraine get this stuff. And honestly -- we learned from Iraq that it's best not to leave all that gear in local hands anyhow, the extremists *just get it anyway*, so I really think Ukraine should get the stuff. We can better trust them, it's not like they're gonna go muslim fundy on us and attack us with our own military hardware.

(seriously, darn Afghanistan has gotten enough of our money, we've done nation building there and sent cargo ships full of cash into that place, enough is enough, they have gotten enough, Ukraine needs some help -- and this is no kind of ally anyway, they are essentially threatening us to become a problem again if we give this military gear to Ukraine instead of them, well that's a bunch of crap, US shouldn't be responding to threats and that's no ally)

AFGHANISTAN OPPOSES US PLANS TO TRANSFER MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO UKRAINE

Kabul is against Washington’s alleged decision to transfer weapons and machinery left from its military mission in Afghanistan to Ukraine, an Afghan presidential administration official told TASS. The issue will be discussed with Obama, he added.

American specialists in Afghanistan are currently preparing US army MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) vehicles to be transferred to Ukraine, according to the information obtained by the Afghan presidential administration. The US combat mission command refuses to discuss the issue with Kabul, saying the White House is in charge, a representative of Ashraf Ghani’s administration told the agency.

Ghani will raise the question during his visit to Washington in January. He plans to urge Obama not to move the equipment to Ukraine, the agency’s source said. “The issue is directly connected with sustaining the country’s strategic partnership with the US,” the official added.

Washington has previously ensured Kabul that the US military equipment and weapons, used by its combat mission in Afghanistan, will stay in the country to be employed by the Afghan army and law enforcement, according to the official. He added the country planned to use it in strengthening its fighting capabilities against Taliban forces in the country’s south.

...

US officials and NATO have supported Ukraine over the conflict with anti-government forces in the country’s east. In November, US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, commander of US European Command and NATO Allied Command Operations, said there is a plan to address the requirements of Ukraine’s military, with parts of it being executed. Speaking about the possibility of sending lethal equipment to Ukraine, the general said nothing was off the table.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/27122014-afghanistan-opposes-us-plans-transfer-military-equipment-ukraine/


(it's really absurd, can you imagine it, you've got Afghani officials bugging the US command over there "what do you mean, this is going to Ukraine, the deal is you leave your stuff here" lol, and then they're telling the Afghans "you have to talk to the white house about it."

On a serious note, so far this like APCs and such and some anti armor weapons; if our government really does seriously arm Ukraine, then as a voter I'd want to feel confident we've got a handle on what Ukraine does with those weapons. That's important. We don't want atrocious civilian casualties in Europe, with US military hardware. My hunch is that it will be okay, Kiev is in good lock step with Washington, there's an American on their cabinet, they listen to the EU too, it should be fine.)

EDIT: I didn't know this, but apparently the Canadian parliament passed a bill mirroring elements of the Ukraine Freedom Act passed by congress. Canada is actually going to send some soldiers and do some training help over there:

Russian Media Warns Of World War 3 Over U.S. Resolution 758, Canada Offers Military Aid To Ukraine

Recently, Canadian Defense Minister Rob Nicholson announced this week that Canada will send Canadian soldiers into Ukraine in order to provide training, including security measures and battlefield medicine. The declaration of intent was made independent of NATO and it’s not considered a legally binding treaty under international, but it does stop short of providing lethal aid and weapons to Ukraine. Still, the Canadian declaration does resemble elements of the U.S. House Resolution 758.

“Russia has flagrantly violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine and continues its efforts to intimidate and undermine the democratically elected government in Kiev,” the declaration reads. “Canada and Ukraine are committed to continue working together to strengthen the capacity of the Ukrainian government and its security forces to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its people
http://www.inquisitr.com/1668419/russian-media-warns-of-world-war-3-over-u-s-resolution-758-canada-offers-military-aid-to-ukraine/
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 01:27:31

Sixstrings wrote:You're being a bit offensive there and unfair, I really don't think anyone in west ukraine wants to see "people killed in donetsk," including Poroshenko. Agent man, if we had a foreign-stoked insurrection here in the US then you know as well as I do that the govt would mercilessly crush it and rightfully so, cuz unless there's a dictatorship then there is no right to rebellion, you VOTE you do not have a right to take arms against the govt and call yourself a separatist republic.


You do realize that is exactly what Maidan did right, they took up arms against the elected government; in fact against a government that was only a month or so from holding the next election.

That aside, our Government would indeed crush an internal insurrection; but it is able to do so because our military is competently lead, and under the full command and control of the federal government. None of that is true of the forces fighting against the insurrection in Ukraine. They are incompetent on a level that is hard to even imagine; and are controlled more by localized warlords than they are their central government. Thus, they are incapable of crushing ANYTHING of significance; and no amount of hardware we throw at them will change that.

I told you what they have to do to win. They are unwilling to do it. Thus, their defeat follows in due course, and is playing out before our eyes. Drawing a partition line and setting up controlled entry and exits on that lines is basically an open surrender. Kiev Lost.

but the Kiev forces holding the terminal are in a very strong fortification, which would probably take several thousand troops and very high casualties to permanently clear. Basically not worth the effort.

No, Russian army and the separatists have tried taking it many times and have not been able to.


Forty guys playing Call of Duty Offline in a blown up building is not a militarily signficant attempt to take the structure. Russia has never placed 10,000 troops on the tarmac of that airport. QED, they haven't tried to take it. Its a waste of effort and resources, the presence of the "cyborgs" is of no strategic importance to Donetsk. They can't use the airport with them there, and they can't use the airport with them not there. The cyborgs are unable to deliver significant fire outbound, they are only able to defend the structure because it is so exceptionally defensible. It is not possible to project power from that terminal.

Pesky/Avdiika otoh, are signficant; and significant Russian resources were brought to bear; and consequently, Kiev lost control of them.

The people are proud of their soldiers, holding the airport. It's like Texas and "remember the alamo."


Alamo was a terrible defeat for the Republic of Texas; the spinning of the story does not make it a victory. Nothing about the Alamo battle helped Texas win its independence; and if the canon from the mission had been extracted, they could have been well used in something of military significance later.

O.. and just about everyone died at the Alamo. Something those kids have to look forward to.

Fair enough. It is time, yep, for some autonomous agreement but you know what -- they see these separatists as Russian foreigners (the leaders and many fighters came in from Russia) and they see them as terrorists, so there would have to be some kind of new elections and you can't just have Russian foreigners in Ukrainian offices, or that's my opinion anyway.


The loser does not get to dictate terms to the victor. Kiev lost. Kiev may come to D&L as a supplicant if they wish and arrange a federal structure that those in charge in D&L find acceptable; or they can attempt again, and fail again, to take those cities by force. However, what they are choosing to do is set up an internal partition basically accepting the existence of this "novorussia" for the foreseeable future. Personally, I think this course of action is the only sane thing they've done in months.

How do you translate it

Google and Bing have decent translation systems; though you have to get a feel for how they work to go from Russian->jumble-glish->English.

All Putin is doing is just trying to keep his finger in the Ukrainian govt, somehow, to as much degree as he can, but it's just time to GIVE IT UP already. And do not do this in Lithuania or anywhere else.


Putin has no need to "give it up"; but again you misread. Russia no longer needs to control the Ukraine government; and in particular control trade passing through Ukraine into Russia. Russia made it to full float and didn't die. The arbitrage risk to the Customs Union has been deleted.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby radon1 » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 07:46:36

Sixstrings wrote: you can't just have Russian foreigners in Ukrainian offices, or that's my opinion anyway.


So, you cannot have Russian foreigners in Ukrainian offices, but you can have other foreigners in Ukrainian offices.

Actually, foreigners in the state offices are a great progress for them. They finally manned up and accepted, with or without the help from the western "partners", that they are unable to put forward a leadership of their own. Because whoever local is brought to any position of power, immediately engages into thievery as though there is no tomorrow (not too different from Russia though, but probably much worse.).
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby radon1 » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 07:52:55

AgentR11 wrote: The arbitrage risk to the Customs Union has been deleted.


Tax arbitrage risk should still be there, and it is actively exploited by Belarus, apparently. Though they were hit by the forex risk, so that their Lukashenko demanded that Belarus trades in dollar/euro with Russia - he wants to retain the tax benefit but eliminate the forex risk.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 08:59:30

lol. Little late to be worrying about exchange rate risk, this 60-65 range is a very solid position for the ruble; worrying about it now is like worrying about the odds after the race is over.

Tax thing is interesting though.. Hadn't thought about that, as I was more interested in the mercantilist aspect of imported goods being artificially underpriced in Russia as a result of their central bank manipulating the value of the ruble in the 30s before float.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 16:54:02

radon1 wrote:So, you cannot have Russian foreigners in Ukrainian offices, but you can have other foreigners in Ukrainian offices.


Well, it just seems odd, you had Russians come in from Russia (Russian Russians are not the same as Russian speaking Ukrainains any more than Americans and Canadians are the same just because we share a language. Russian speakers in Ukraine often have never even been to Russia, it's a place on tv, they grew up in Ukraine, they speak Russian but often serve in the Ukraine army, there are Russian speakers in the right sector militias too.)

Some of these Russian leaders that came in from Russia, just took over these places they made new republics in. Who is going to grant them Ukrainian citizenship now, the rada? President Poroshenko? After they've been fighting them for a year, as a foreign incursion terrorist insurgence? It would be like Assad giving all those foreign fighters in ISIS, Syrian citizenship. That's asking a bit much, in a peace deal. Some of these Russians from Russia may be Russian intel, they may be under direct control from the kremlin, so how can Ukraine just accept them as governors. Anyhow, this is up to the Ukrainian government, I'd just say if there's a deal for autonomous government in the east then require there be new elections and as the law already stands only Ukrainian citizens can run for office.

The 4 foreigners appointed to the cabinet were granted Ukrainian citizenship the same day. Anyway this is a small point. My take on it is that obviously Kiev likes its ex-soviet comrades in arms in the region -- Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Georgia, and they've hitched their wagon to the United States, but needless to say they have issues with Russia.

This thing has come a long way. I think Putin lost. The reality is that there is an American in the Ukraine cabinet, top level post -- finance -- in charge of the economy. Our vice president's son works for a Ukrainian company, too, not sure if he is actually in Ukraine or not though.

And you know, Estonia actually has an American president. He's better than the Americans we elect over here in America ( :lol: ). I think this is a good move, it'll be good for them. There must be some kind of internationalist thing going on in Ukraine now, otherwise they wouldn't appoint a Georgian, Estonian, Lithuanian, and American. :?: I just find that interesting, it's not just the cabinet posts, Ukraine has and is making a lot of ties with these other ex soviets and they are all on the same side about fears of Russian hybrid war incursion. This could wind up being a new kind of bloc in east europe, a new independent but pro west warsaw pact; with Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia, Lithuania.

And it's not all uncle sam's fault, either, these countries are neighbors of Russia that have issues with Russia.

US diplomats and business interests have just been waiting in the wings for decades now, never pushing Ukraine, always saying Ukraine needs to work with Russia, but now Ukraine has made its choice and the US has a lot of influence now and these business interests are likely going to do a lot there -- this new Ukrainian finance minister was in charge of an American capital fund involved in Ukraine, for the last 20 years.

(again, I'm dubious about banksters, but she seems very competent and like she's got a plan for what needs fixed over there)

Actually, foreigners in the state offices are a great progress for them. They finally manned up and accepted, with or without the help from the western "partners", that they are unable to put forward a leadership of their own. Because whoever local is brought to any position of power, immediately engages into thievery as though there is no tomorrow (not too different from Russia though, but probably much worse.).


We agree. Corruption is worse in Ukraine than Russia, far far worse, but Russia has a similar problem too. That's big of you to admit that.

Corruption ("thievery") can happen ANYWHERE, by the way, it can and does happen right here in the US. Only good strong anglo-saxon rule of law and honest government and an independent FBI and judiciary can keep people honest.

We've had lots of corruption in the US, in our history. Mafia corruption in government in NYC, in the past, and Chicago. So it's not like America is superior and giving lectures, this can happen anywhere if it's allowed.

Right now, we have "meta" corruption with hedge funds and such, and what they get away with. It's not as bad as Ukraine or Russia, but still, it's as bad as the people and government will allow it to be. We have smaller scale corruption, like in West Virginia how the coal and chemical companies buy off all the pols with campaign donations and that's how Charleston's water got so polluted there was a drinking ban on it for weeks.

And places like Sicily, and Italy, and Greece, and Spain, have far worse corruption than northern Europe.

It's not that anyone is better than anyone else, this corruption can happen anywhere that it is allowed to be in.

The more that corruption is eradicated, the better an economy can be, and that's just an economic fact of life. Ukraine's new finance minister knows that, so that's good, this is some help coming in for them and they're all on the same team and she's a Ukrainian citizen now. I think she's already been over there for 20 darn years anyway.

I think things may work out for Ukraine, you get an American like that in the cabinet and in the top level meetings, and they work with Merkel and Washington, this is going to get them on the right track long term and then I will be proved right in what I have said all along -- they can have just as good economy and life as Poland and Estonia does, if not better.

And in the end, Russia will still be doing business with them too, and if Russia will stop fighting it then Russia can be making money in Ukraine again, instead of losing money.

P.S. You frame it as Ukraine admitting they can't run themselves with their own people, but that's not true. Poroshenko is a strong president, and their PM is pretty good too. What they've done through this whole last year *is reach out to the rest of the world* more than they ever have before. They've made allies, in this struggle with the kremlin.

Even bad press is good press, as they say, and Ukraine's been in the consciousness for a year now. Nobody had ever even heard of the place before. That's all good, long term. Pro west government, open society internationalist vibe, good business climate -- that's going to bring people and investment in.

There's no future in being an isolated ex soviet republic nobody's ever heard of, but there is a future in becoming an internationalist kind of place, modeling the West, like Estonia did and like Poland did. Ukraine has a lot of growth potential, nowhere to go but up.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 17:43:58

And at the end of the day, after all the propaganda is said and done, the fact remains:

1) a Russian woman in Russia was arrested and charged for just linking some no big deal little maidan videos.

2) that does not happen in the USA, in Europe, and it doesn't happen in Ukraine. So that's the difference that a lot of people care about, especially in Ukraine. That's what the little people call "freedom." That's what people in Iran do not have -- they have to deal with secret services from the govt and "religious police" too. In Iran, sometimes people just disappear for no apparent reason.

Darn Anthony Bourdain was just interviewing this couple on his show, and at the end of it they said the couple "disappeared," seized by the government, for months. No explanation given, eventually let go. They didn't even say anything political or no good reason for it.

Basic freedom actually matters, when you don't have it, it's just psychically pernicious and oppressive.

How bad Russia ever gets on this, is however bad the Russian people will allow it to get.

The worst kind of place in the world is North Korea. That place is just horrible. There was a rumor that kim jong un's wife was in a porn video, so you know what he went and did? She had been a pop singer before. So the man has the female members of that band EXECUTED. Jesus.

In North Korea, when someone high level defects, they throw the entire extended family into the gulags. On up to 4th cousins, people that had no idea they were even related to someone.

North Korea is changing too though. Thumb drives with information about the outside world are getting smuggled in. Kim jong un wiped out half his father's generals, he can take out a lot of people but he can't take them all out, once some change and a little glimspe of freedom elsewhere, on a tv screen, gets going.

North Korea has political prison camps larger than the city of Washington, DC. People still half starving over there, even after millions perished in the 90s famine.

Dictatorship is bad, freedom really is good, there really is a difference it's not all BS.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby radon1 » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 18:24:34

Sixstrings wrote:
The 4 foreigners appointed to the cabinet were granted Ukrainian citizenship the same day. Anyway this is a small point. My take on it is that obviously Kiev likes its ex-soviet comrades in arms in the region -- Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Georgia,


No one cares what Kiev likes. They were appointed because they know Russian/English. And they were appointed because the US/EU could not channel financial assistance to Ukraine without good controls in place, otherwise everything would be stolen.

Corruption ("thievery") can happen ANYWHERE, by the way, it can and does happen right here in the US. Only good strong anglo-saxon rule of law and honest government and an independent FBI and judiciary can keep people honest


The rule of law does not have to be anglo-saxon to prevent corruption. And it does not even have to be rule of law, a Stalin would do.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 18:38:31

Good grief, they are so paranoid:

Major Russian TV network says US intelligence carried out the Charlie Hebdo attack

Image
http://www.vox.com/2015/1/8/7514439/charlie-hebdo-russia-cia


They're just doing propaganda. 9/11 truther type stuff. To weaken US leadership.

Meanwhile, islamic terrorism is a real problem for everyone -- including Russia -- if it gets worse then maybe we'll start working together instead of thousands of Christians dying, fighting each other in Ukraine.

edit: WHO is helping France, right now? WHO is there for France, right now? The USA is.

Attorney general is headed over there now. Obama is having high level meetings about it with the natl security team. He's at the French embassy in DC, right now (I have CNN on :lol: ). If this attack came from Yemen, then what world military power will do something about that? The USA. Uncle Sam ain't so bad to have in one's back pocket, he comes in handy, he's a good ally to have.

What's Russia doing, for France? Just calling it all an American plot, I guess.

If Russia -- or China -- ever wants to provide a real alternative to US leadership in the world, then they've gotta start doing something for people other than annexing chunks of things from neighbors.

A leader isn't the one in the back just heckling the one that stepped up, to lead. Geopolitics is basic group dynamics, nations want a powerful ally that also is not going to push them around or bother them too much, and USA remains the favored choice.

Serious foreign policy wise, Europe and UK and the US are all really concerned about the foreign fighters in the middle east that will all come back home. Europe has a bigger problem with this than the US does, but hey we're allies, we're there for ya.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Thu 08 Jan 2015, 19:31:07, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 18:39:51

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30735673

What more would you expect from such a backward society.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 18:56:53

radon1 wrote:The rule of law does not have to be anglo-saxon to prevent corruption. And it does not even have to be rule of law, a Stalin would do.


True. Peter the Great was a good leader. These values can be universal, I shouldn't have thrown anglo-saxon in there. South Koreans work MUCH harder than we do, for example.

Russia and east europe can out-west the West, if it wanted to, look at Japan and South Korea, they did it. South Korea doesn't even have any natural resources. Capitalism and free trade, combined with republican government, has always been a winner. Look at the rise of the Netherlands in the 18th century. A place doesn't even need to have any natural resources and it can become a world power.

And Venice, in the renassaince.

What are the keys to success here? Nations that trade a lot, that are capitalist, and the trade brings open societies, and everything combined leads to innovation.

It does not have to be "anglo saxon," the values can be universal, they just work best is all. Hard working people, open society, trade, regulated free market capitalism, and most of all there cannot be rampant corruption to the point where everyone is taking a bribe or stealing from the till.

Corruption is a cancer, it just screws up the ecosystem of a free market economy.

Doesn't have to be anglo saxon, you just need people that go to work and pay their taxes and honest accounting and business practices, keep the political corruption from getting too bad, and that's all a winner.

"Stalin" is not the way to do that, stalinism is not freedom, and you can't ever compete on innovation without a free society. These are just natural laws, it's like gravity.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 08 Jan 2015, 22:27:07

dorlomin wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30735673

What more would you expect from such a backward society.


From your linked article:

Moscow street: Various mental "disorders" are seen as a cause of road accidents

Russia has listed transsexual and transgender people among those who will no longer qualify for driving licences.

Fetishism, exhibitionism and voyeurism are also included as "mental disorders" now barring people from driving.

The government says it is tightening medical controls for drivers because Russia has too many road accidents.

"Pathological" gambling and compulsive stealing are also on the list. Russian psychiatrists and human rights lawyers have condemned the move.

The announcement follows international complaints about Russian harassment of gay-rights activists.

The Association of Russian Lawyers for Human Rights called the new law "discriminatory". It said it would demand clarifications from the Russian Constitutional Court and seek support from international human rights organisations.

But the Professional Drivers Union supported the move. "We have too many deaths on the road, and I believe toughening medical requirements for applicants is fully justified," said the union's head Alexander Kotov.


They're getting strange about driver's licenses lately. Couple months ago I posted about a bill in the duma that says anyone who won't be fingerprinted and submit a dna sample to the federal government, can't get a driver's license.

So now.. gamblers, transgendered, and "fetishists" can't get a license either. Here's what I wonder, how does the DMV know who is a gambler and who has a fetish? :?:

They say that they "have too many deaths on the road" and have to toughen physical and mental requirements for a driver's license.

Is it really that bad, in Russia? What are the actual numbers, are they way out of line with everyone else? China is actually the worst, they've got like half a billion brand new drivers on the road and nobody knows what they are doing.

Maybe DRINKING and ALCOHOLISM are the real problem, regarding accidents? Do they have tough DUI laws, or is it okay be to be drunk but not transgendered behind the wheel?

And aren't we getting into some nazi-ish territory here, with gays and transgender not only put in the mental ill category, but that whole mentally ill group of persons now classed as defective and denied basic things like driving.

Forgetting transgender, there is nothing about "mental illness" that affects driving.

Things that affect driving: being elderly with some alzheimers and poor vision, being too young and reckless and not enough driving experience, being drunk, texting, eating in the car or putting on makeup etc.

This law about gamblers and fetishists and transgender being dangerous to have on the roads, makes no logical sense.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby radon1 » Fri 09 Jan 2015, 03:15:36

Sixstrings wrote:
And Venice, in the renassaince.

What are the keys to success here?



Venice, Holland and South Korea have one thing in common - they are beautifully located in terms of logistics of international trade. Something that Russia, for example, lacks. At least at the moment.
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 09 Jan 2015, 06:06:56

Not trying to inflame anyone, but here's some updates on the various issues in this thread. Most notably, Russian bonds I guess are at "junk" status, fifth riskiest in the world, just above Lebanon, Egypt and Portugal.

Russia Won’t Let Transgender People Drive

An official decree published this week, after having been signed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Dec. 29, provides a list of illnesses that disqualify people from operating motor vehicles and includes gender identity disorders.

it singles out those with “personality and behavior disorders” by referencing a section of the International Classification of Diseases, published by the World Health Organization, which includes gender identity and behavior disorders like “pathological” gambling and fetishism.
http://time.com/3660563/russia-license-ban-transgender-drivers/


Putin’s Russia Trading as Junk Awaits Downgrades to Match

As rating companies weigh cutting Russia’s investment-grade status as soon as today, traders of credit-default swaps are already treating the nation as junk.

The cost of insuring Russia’s bonds against non-repayment for five years jumped 72 basis points this year to 547, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That makes the nation’s debt the fifth-riskiest globally, above speculative-grade countries including Lebanon, Egypt and Portugal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/putin-trading-as-junk-waits-for-ratings-companies-to-catch-up.html


George Woloshyn: How Russia lost the war

Putin still has the ability to effect rivers of blood, but towards what end? He will never retain Ukraine or regain for Russia what he has lost. He, more than anybody, has freed Ukraine of its economic and psychological dependence on Russia. His smartest recourse is to cut his losses, make whatever amends he can, and seek to “reset” his relationship with the rest of the world. No one is fooled by his bluff that his hemorrhaging, Italy-sized economy can support his “il duce” delusions.

Europe and the U.S., for their part, should not –under any circumstance- allow Putin to come out ahead or even break even. He started a world crisis without right, reason, and remorse, and now Ukraine and the civilized world must end it. Any compromise will be seen by him as a victory, and the world will have to face him again in the future. He must not be allowed to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/george-woloshyn-how-russia-lost-the-war-376920.html


Yatsenyuk Says Russia Must Remove 'Bandits' From Ukraine
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-yatsenyuk-bandits/26783093.html


Russia behind cyberattack on German government, Ukraine says

“I strongly recommend that the Russian secret services stop spending taxpayer money for cyberattacks against the Bundestag and Chancellor Merkel’s office,” Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told ZDF TV when asked if pro-Russian hackers from Ukraine were responsible.

...

The attack comes after U.S. investigators said they believed North Korea had probably hired hackers for a massive cyber attack against Sony Pictures.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russia-behind-cyber-attack-on-german-government-ukraine-says/article22359561/
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Re: Russian central bank raises interest rate to 17%

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 09 Jan 2015, 09:57:44

Its amazing that Western media keeps telling Putin he *must* do this or that, or Russia will implode. And Russia keeps not obeying. And it keeps not imploding.

And why would Russia obey the prime minister of the country that it is at war with? (that's beyond dumb)

Our press is just insane.... I wonder why that is.

Either we are going to go to war with Russia and suffer the likely hundreds of millions of deaths globally that will entail, or we are going to sit here and watch Putin do what the heck he wants to. Russia is more than capable of holding Crimea against any attempted recapture; and it is more than capable of keeping Donbass in a perpetual state of frozen conflict for as long as it wants to.

Internally, no one in Russia will freeze, nor starve; or at least no more so than the random homeless guy in the US freezes or starves. We just can't get it through our heads that Russia does not require any imports, of any kind; and that changes what can be accomplished by sanctions and economic warfare. We can only harm luxury and delicacy; not bread, steal, and gasoline. Our sanctions can cause a Russian to drive a Lada instead of a BMW, but Lada's are honestly quite functional, and not really inappropriately designed for the general climate. Our sanctions can cause Russia to buy fruit from India and China instead of Poland; but they can't harm the general availability of calorie foods in Russian groceries.

So the question becomes. Do we want to bleed for Ukraine, Kiev, and their oligarchs; or not.

I'm kinda in favor of not. So sure, lets keep the sanctions regime running, sell Kiev as many weapons as they can manage to buy, break, and sell to the rebels; but lets be realistic. Russia will not collapse, nor even suffer greatly; they will not return Crimea; and the only way Kiev gets D&L back is by serious compromise with the Kremlin.

Stop with the wishcasting. Its embarrassing.
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