[radon1]

Most notably, Russian bonds I guess are at "junk" status, fifth riskiest in the world, just above Lebanon, Egypt and Portugal.

Russian market rallied ~10% over the past two days, and Russian state bonds are almost non-existent anyway. Downgrading them may boost demand from bargain hunters actually.

Russia Won’t Let Transgender People Drive

Russian Duma is a collection of idiots, with a few exceptions, never been much doubt about it.

Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told ZDF TV

Yatsenuk told them that Soviet Union invaded nazi Germany. This is outright sick if not criminal. Why cite this freak on the respectable website.

[Sixstrings]

edit: rant deleted

[AgentR11]

For that matter, we could have sent forces into Crimea before Russia ever had a chance to.

Its statements like these that make me believe you have no real awareness of the ground truth. Russia has had troops in Crimea for YEARS; I'm not even sure there was ever a point that Russian troops were NOT in Crimea, in the thousands. Its also very likely that Russian plans for the secession and unification with Crimea are several years old.

No, if we wanted the Crimea in our sphere, there was never any real chance of capturing it without a real war with Russia, with real cities dieing. It was a nifty attempt to catch it on the sly with Maidan; but Maidan failed; enough Russian leaning folks were killed to give them that Goliad moment; and thus, frozen conflict and disaster.

As to the Arctic, Russia has legal claim to more Arctic territory than anyone; they have no need to heat anything up. I'd go so far as to suggest that anything they DO heat up beyond rhetoric will be as a feint to protect something far more important, but less controversial. Much like the Balkin's agitation; Moscow has no use for any of the Baltic states; they have as much right as anyone up there to transit the Danish Straits per the Copenhagen Convention of 1857; and their port facilities of St. Petersburg & Primorsk are the largest on the Baltic. But fly some airplanes around the crowded airspace up there, and you can really get NATO stirred up like crazy. Helps take the eyeballs off Crimea, and to a lesser extent D&L.

As to Putin running his mouth about Kiev in weeks or days or whatever. What he means is that he has the means to break the infrastructure of Kiev at will. And he does; and Kiev would be helpless to stop it. Occupation of Kiev is not implied, but the idea is left out there for the gullible to believe would be the intent. Stakeholders however, know exactly what he meant. Kiev is horribly fragile; collapsing under a couple decades of misrule and theft. The EU mandated reforms will help in the long run; but the benefits are years away; not months. Add to that, Kiev is not achieving positive control of its private armies; if anything, my take is that what little control they had managed to gain in the fall is failing. Good odds Ukraine becomes a bombed out Somalia at this rate. If Kiev can not eviscerate these private, ideologically driven armies; they really have no hope of becoming a functioning European state. No Eurozone nation has private militias that can project offensive power. None.

BTW... Ukraine army troops don't throw off their guns or uniforms. They sell them.

[dorlomin]

Venice, Holland and South Korea have one thing in common - they are beautifully located in terms of logistics of international trade. Something that Russia, for example, lacks. At least at the moment.

Vladivostok is only a few hundred miles from South Korea, St Petersburg is just over 1000 miles from Hamburg. Russia\USSR is one of the best sited countries in the world in terms of easy access to multiple hubs of the worlds manufacturing\commerce centers (East Asia\West Europe).

The USSR and Russia were just appallingly run in terms of economic development. Stop making stupid excuses.

[Sixstrings]

Vladivostok is only a few hundred miles from South Korea, St Petersburg is just over 1000 miles from Hamburg. Russia\USSR is one of the best sited countries in the world in terms of easy access to multiple hubs of the worlds manufacturing\commerce centers (East Asia\West Europe).

The USSR and Russia were just appallingly run in terms of economic development. Stop making stupid excuses.

Yup, they have plenty of land and ports, it's not land that they lack:



Vladivostok is right next to the koreas, and Japan. It's never really been developed ever since catherine and Peter the greats. So why is that? How does a tiny half peninsula South Korea with no resources rise from ashes and dirt poor mud poverty, to a top economy in the whole world, in so little time?

If they hadn't been so confrontational in the Putin years, they could have built a bullet train over the Bering into North America. A new silk road and land bridge with Europe, now that would be a lot of trade. Maybe that would cost $200 billion but it would be worth it -- what do you get from $40 billion on the olympics and the rest for wars in the Ukraine and nukes on trains? Nothin'. A tanking economy, and getting to be "the bad guy." It's more fun, and profitable, to be the "good guy." Russia will get there, one day.

[anonymous1]

(A guest post from Ukraine).

On Russian geopolitics, please read the "Foundations of Geopolitics" by A. Dugin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
At least the parts about Ukraine.
You'll learn that Russia wants to (re-)establish an Eurasian empire, with its western borders at the western borders of Moldova, at least.
And the crazy idea about independent Ukraine posing a great risk for Russia's existence (compared to an attack on Russia), so Russia can only allow some degree of cultural autonomy for Ukraine, while its government should be a Russian puppet.

About foreigner ministers in the Ukrainian Cabinet: do you know that in the Yanukovych presidency times the heads of Ukrainian Defence Ministry and Security Service were actually freshly naturalized Russian Federation citizens?

And yes, the main Ukrainian problem now is corruption (even up to the state treason level), bribery, cleptocracy etc., and here comes all the nepotism, oligarchy lobbyism, unprofessionalism etc.
The UA government needs more transparency and independent public control, as the public shame (do you remember the "garbage lustration"?) is a quite good popular punishment

[SeaGypsy]

Yeah right, Vladivostok is undeveloped! Don't forget that a huge country like Russia feeds its resources primarily back to the larger capitals. Areas which may have supported much larger populations & economies if centralised are necessarily economic & social outposts in the context of places like Eastern Russia. I live in a city of 120,000 in an area capable of sustaining tens of millions, with a population in total less than 200,000. Same sort of thing, Australia's capitals being at the other end, proximity to rapid growth in Asia is overridden by domestic political economic & logistical concerns.

[radon1]

You'll learn that Russia wants to (re-)establish an Eurasian empire, with its western borders at the western borders of Moldova, at least.

Again these madman's ravings, tiresome.

Of course, "Russia", whoever these are, - presumably, Dugin, Ivashov et al, - want to re-establish a dreadful Eurasian empire and get lunatics like you on their neck, - provided that their masterpiece is properly interpreted (which is a big question mark). Send a letter to Dugin, you'll definitely enjoy each other's guest-postings.

[radon1]

U.S. Rating House Fitch Downgrades Russia One Notch vs. China Rating House Dagong Says Russian Debt Safer Than U.S.
Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/u-s-rati ... wvqf1t8.99

Russian Debt Safer Than U.S.? So Says China Rating House Dagong

A currency crisis, recession and plunge in the price of its key export don’t mean Russia is any less creditworthy than the U.S., according to one of China’s biggest debt-rating companies.

Just the opposite — it’s a better credit risk, says Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. The firm, which downgraded U.S. government debt in October 2013 to A-, today said it has decided to maintain Russia’s rating at A with a stable outlook.

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/u-s-rati ... wvqf1t8.99

[AgentR11]

Vladivostok is right next to the koreas, and Japan. It's never really been developed ever since catherine and Peter the greats. So why is that?

Can you even type the word WIKI?

Vladivostok has had billions invested in it in the last decade, by Putin the Destroyer of Russia. In particular, an incredible bridge that basically doubles the developable land area and potential additional port facilities.

Putin doesn't give two flips about trade with the US who will make your dollars useless if you do not obey.

[Sixstrings]

Can you even type the word WIKI?

Vladivostok has had billions invested in it in the last decade, by Putin the Destroyer of Russia. In particular, an incredible bridge that basically doubles the developable land area and potential additional port facilities.

Putin doesn't give two flips about trade with the US who will make your dollars useless if you do not obey.

When I say "undeveloped" I really mean that whole peninsula that Vladivostok is at the end of.

IT AIN'T NO SOUTH KOREA.

South Korea alone has HALF OF RUSSIA'S entire GDP.

All I am saying, Agent, is how about drawing a line on that kamchatka peninsula and creating an experimental Russian separatist republic that has DEMOCRACY and freedom and will be focused on trade. And see what happens.

What the point was, is just that Russia does not lack land nor ports nor "beautifully strategic" trade locations. You've got that kamchtka area, right next to Japan and South Korea and all the hub bub in Asia.

And yet, Vladivostok is like some crab fishing town in Alaska. And the rest of the kamchatka, and Sibera, while they have industry it's still pretty much all empty.

You know what they could have done? Make that Kamchatka area a kind of Dubai, create a "hong kong" out of it, one country two systems and give kamchatka freedom and make it fully western. Then open the doors for asian immigration, into it.

Would have been an interesting experiment, Russia could have doubled its GDP and been diversified, having little hong kong of its own.

[Sixstrings]

Korea? It's an American protectorate living on special trade agreements for nearly a century. Bad comparison.

For its size, South Korea is a powerhouse advanced economy. I get wonky about the Koreas by the way, you've got Dark Ages Hell on Earth communist DPRK cult, then the glittering rich south, right next to each other like that. It's fascinating.

South Koreans are interesting, they work incredibly hard. (really too hard)

If it's a protectorate, well, maybe it's an example that one can do well as an American protectorate. It's really what you make of it, and South Korea sure ran with it.

As did a place like Estonia, which has a good economy, and Poland, and perhaps Ukraine in the future. Nations that fully embraced the US the most, have done the best. Japan. South Korea. I'm just saying it can be done, it can be a path to success -- freedom, rule of law, democracy, trade, investment coming in, pro-US alignment.

[radon1]

If it's a protectorate, well, maybe it's an example that one can do well as an American protectorate. It's really what you make of it, and South Korea sure ran with it.

As did a place like Estonia, which has a good economy, and Poland, and perhaps Ukraine in the future. Nations that fully embraced the US the most, have done the best. Japan. South Korea. I'm just saying it can be done, it can be a path to success -- freedom, rule of law, democracy, trade, investment coming in, pro-US alignment.

Very superficial arguments, and therefore an empty discussion.

[Sixstrings]

And the crazy idea about independent Ukraine posing a great risk for Russia's existence (compared to an attack on Russia),

Just an objective question. So what if the USA really does "arm Ukraine to the teeth."

How do you feel about Crimea? If "armed to the teeth," is Ukraine going to accept Russian annexation in Crimea or may it actually start messing around down there and pushing on it, if there's some destabilization in Russia and opportunity arises?

Of course Ukraine would never threaten Russia proper, but I wonder about Crimea, what will Ukraine do in the future AFTER it has a good military courtesy of the USA -- and, Ukraine's own military buildup and domestic manufacturing and military imports they're doing from other places.

Probably the safest thing for everyone, Russia included, would be to get Ukraine fully into NATO. That's better than an independent Ukraine that is just "armed to the teeth" and may do something risky like try to work on retaking Crimea (in the future).

As an American, my only concern about arming Ukraine "to the teeth" is that I don't actually want to see them start WWIII, or a scenario like too harsh an offensive in the east -- but now with top notch US military hardware -- and maybe atrocious civilian casualties, and we'd have responsibility for that if we're the ones that armed Ukraine.

(I actually think it will be okay, Kiev is working closely with EU and US, I think it's safe to arm them. If we ever do send serious business heavy arms, then I think we need to send advisors and trainers too, Americans may not like sending "advisors" in there because that sounds like Vietnam, but I think we can't just send a bunch of weapons alone -- we have a responsibility here if we send those weapons -- so we need to have some control over how they are used. Ukraine in nato is the best route, really, since no nato nation can do anything crazy without approval of the other nato states because none of us want WWIII)

Incidentally: publicly anyway, all US officials, and Ukraine's new American finance minister for that matter, are 100% about Crimea is illegally occupied and annexed. The practical problem about it though is that it's just too late, and you can't ever take it back now without Russia considering that a direct attack on them. The east is different, those are separatist states. If Russia ever *annexes* something though, then the world must act FAST to stop it, if you let it go on then they just have it, possession being 9/10 of the law.

But I just want to clarify, officially, nobody in US gov or EU has ever said Ukraine has to give up on Crimea. The closest talk about this was a German opposition leader suggesting putting Crimea recognition on the table, but that never went anywhere.

My opinion: nobody can tell Ukraine they have to give up on Crimea, but it's just that we honestly do not want WWIII and the end of the whole world, all over the Crimea.

so Russia can only allow some degree of cultural autonomy for Ukraine, while its government should be a Russian puppet.

They definitely want Ukraine to be their puppet. That's always been the case. Condoleeza Rice wrote about how she met with Putin one time in his office and he said "I want to introduce you to someone" and out comes Yanokovich from a side door. Shakes her hand. And goes back out the door. Rice said the message of the whole thing is that Russia wanted the US to know that Yanukovich is Putin's man.

For its part, USA has always been there working in Ukraine and offering relations but also cosnistent that Ukraine keep working with Russia too, US just wanted to be in there too. So then finally that Russia-Ukraine relationship completely imploded, so Uncle Sam wound up with it all. Other than the parts Russia has forcefully annexed, and taken.

US allies sometimes complain that Washington does not do enough for them, but on the aggregate, they generally don't wind up hating us anyhow and throwing us out. What's gone on with Hungary is unusual, it's the only western place tacking towards Moscow. But even Hungarians don't hate us, or anything.

But in Ukraine -- Russia has really made a *long term*, generational, bad blood blood feud, adversary. It's all Russia's fault. They are so blind to it. I was reading an article the other day, about how Russians just don't understand this, there are Russians that have FAMILY in Ukraine -- and these Russians actually think their own blood family has just been brainwashed.

Russians really do not understand, why Ukrainians are so angry.

About foreigner ministers in the Ukrainian Cabinet: do you know that in the Yanukovych presidency times the heads of Ukrainian Defence Ministry and Security Service were actually freshly naturalized Russian Federation citizens?

If you're Ukrainian, how do you feel about it, does it bother you about the foreigners in the cabinet?

The way it looks to me, it's more like Ukraine internationalizing and reaching out and really all Ukraine has done for the last year is make a lot of allies. So, they go ahead and appoint a Georgian, Estonian, Lithuanian, and American. The American has the finance minister post, the others are like health minister and such and not so substantial.

The way I see it, the people in the maidan wanted the corruption out and they wanted some EU deals and a better economy.

Having some Americans in the government and close ties with EU and the US will help with that. The #1 goal is to improve the economy, and change everything, get the corruption out of there, just make it a "normal kind of place" like how Poland is, etc. I think that's what the Ukrainian people wanted out of all this, yep they've had Russians in the cabinet before, so now they have some Westerners and their east europe friends -- this help from the West will be good, long term, and down the road in the future you won't have an American in the cabinet anymore, etc.

Ukraine will just have a much better economy and nicer things and a future and growth and won't be poorest in Europe anymore, and won't be a dictatorship and will have freedom, how can anyone be against this?

A Ukrainian can look at Poland, or Estonia, and then look at Belarus, and decide which way they want to go. The EU way, or the Putin way.

And yes, the main Ukrainian problem now is corruption (even up to the state treason level), bribery, cleptocracy etc., and here comes all the nepotism, oligarchy lobbyism, unprofessionalism etc.

Hopefully that all changes. Every little bit that stuff improves, and gets better, means the Ukrainian economy will be better too.

What part of you Ukraine are you from? Any insights you have would be useful to these discussions, welcome to the forum.

[Sixstrings]

‘Soviets invading Germany, Ukraine:’ Berlin faces tough choice on PM Yatsenyuk’s WW2 take

"All of us still clearly remember the Soviet invasion of Ukraine and Germany," he told German-state broadcaster ARD. "We need to avoid [a repeat of] it."

"Nobody has the right to rewrite the results of the Second World War," he also added. "Russia's President Putin is trying to do exactly this."

...

Standard North American and Western European history textbooks give students the impression that WW2 in Europe was a fight between Germany, the USSR, France and the UK, with the US getting involved later. The other countries where the war was fought are, largely, regarded as victims of Germany. This is simplistic. In reality, Germany wasn’t alone in its invasion of the USSR in 1941. Forces from Romania, Finland, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia also took part and West Ukrainian elements collaborated with Hitler’s war machine.

The difference between Ukraine and, for example, Slovakia is that Slovaks have come to understand that their wartime behavior was wrong.
http://rt.com/op-edge/221459-ukraine-germany-invade-russia/

You know what, Russia just misses the point of it all.

Firstly -- it's absurd how Europeans and Russians are so stuck on WWII lately. History does not matter. "History" is just a propaganda tool for the present.

Russians can't really get worked up about Ukraine, so what do you do, you reach back into history and get them worked up about the history and then voila you've got them worked up for a 21st century war in the Ukraine.

Russia misses the POINT -- that point is not finer points on WWII history, but rather that its neighbors feel pushed around and dominated and they have Russian incursions and a lot of places are scared they're going to get "Russian hybrid war" in their country, next.

If Russia wanted better relations, then it's gotta stop poking its neighbors and butter up to them. Honey instead of vinegar. Russia needs the world, more than the world needs Russia -- no nation is an island all by itself, you gotta work sh*t out with people and give and take, not even the USA -- the real lone world superpower -- is so obstinate and confrontational as Russia had been.

Seriously, there is a problem for Russia when Ukraine has made its fight, Lithuania and Estonia's fight too. There's a problem for Russia when they can't even get through a G20 meeting without 19 other world leaders haranguing them. It is NOT the rest of the world's fault, if you're in a room full of people and everyone is yelling at you that you are wrong, then chances are you are wrong.

You can maybe say the USA is the bad guy or maybe you can say Kiev is, but if it gets down to where Finland and Sweden and Lithuania and Estonia and all these people have a problem with you, then you need to step back and think about that.

EDIT: Why can't we just stop all the drama, get Ukraine in NATO, and move on already? Drama, drama, drama, what's Russia going to get out of it all? Ukraine in nato is not the end of the world. All this WWII drama though and inflaming going on in europe, it could lead to crazy things and a real archduke ferdinand.

Would be nice if there were a strong US president in office to just go in and end this crap already -- "ok nato, Ukraine's coming in. And we're moving our forces mostly out of germany, and into poland. And we're not going to have any endless internet flame war drama about it, we're just going to do it and everyone can move on."

Put a US general in charge of this, like Dempsey or someone, they're no-nonsense no-drama and just get the job done.

[AgentR11]

And yet, Vladivostok is like some crab fishing town in Alaska.

That's the most repulsive, obnoxious thing I've seen written in these threads... in forever.

Vladivostok is a large city of over a half million people with huge export facilities, and the recipient of massive infrastructure investment since Putin began to rebuild Russia.

Yeah, this is so like a "crab fishing town in Alaska" :
http://www.vmtp.ru/files/presentation_eng.pdf

Six, you ask that people be offended by various lies made by the Kremlin, and then you write the above. It just boggles my mind. I can't even begin to imagine what you are thinking. It gives a whole new definition to "the big lie" technique.

[radon1]

Good analysis re rating revisions/defaults/interest rates.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-1 ... babilities

It is a bit of a mystery to us why Russian CDS spreads are so much lower than Greek ones, while Russian bond yields are significantly higher. Normally we would assume that embedded foreign exchange related expectations are playing a role in this, but since a Greek default would almost certainly entail a return to the drachma, this shouldn’t make that much of a difference. It seems therefore possible that some of these instruments are in fact mispriced. Of course, one needs to keep in mind that Greece’s government is de facto bankrupt and would have to declare insolvency if its bailout were revoked, while Russia’s government is far from insolvent and actually quite unlikely to become so.

May happen that the sheeple funds can ultimately be the milk cows of this "junk" ratings drama.