[dolanbaker]

You can only have a high population if you have a lot of arable land.

It doesn't work that way, countries that can't self support themselves will trade with others to obtain the food needed to sustain themselves. Singapore being a classic example and there are many others in similar situation.

[DesuMaiden]

You can only have a high population if you have a lot of arable land.

It doesn't work that way, countries that can't self support themselves will trade with others to obtain the food needed to sustain themselves. Singapore being a classic example and there are many others in similar situation.

Japan is another example of such a country. Japan imports most of its food. Countries that import most of their food would be in serious trouble because of peak oil. They can't import anymore food without cheap fossil fuel aided transportation.

[dolanbaker]

You can only have a high population if you have a lot of arable land.

It doesn't work that way, countries that can't self support themselves will trade with others to obtain the food needed to sustain themselves. Singapore being a classic example and there are many others in similar situation.

Japan is another example of such a country. Japan imports most of its food. Countries that import most of their food would be in serious trouble because of peak oil. They can't import anymore food without cheap fossil fuel aided transportation.

If your life depended on it, you'll happily!! pay $1000 a litre for the fuel if the alternative was starvation. Sea freight has very high efficiencies due to the sheer size of some of the ships out there now. If they have to convert ships to coal to maintain a service they will.

A lot of activities that consume oil will go by the wayside before the core services that are vital to health are touched. Even then, survival is possible with less than about 10% of today's supply.

[DesuMaiden]

You can only have a high population if you have a lot of arable land.

It doesn't work that way, countries that can't self support themselves will trade with others to obtain the food needed to sustain themselves. Singapore being a classic example and there are many others in similar situation.

Japan is another example of such a country. Japan imports most of its food. Countries that import most of their food would be in serious trouble because of peak oil. They can't import anymore food without cheap fossil fuel aided transportation.

If your life depended on it, you'll happily!! pay $1000 a litre for the fuel if the alternative was starvation. Sea freight has very high efficiencies due to the sheer size of some of the ships out there now. If they have to convert ships to coal to maintain a service they will.

A lot of activities that consume oil will go by the wayside before the core services that are vital to health are touched. Even then, survival is possible with less than about 10% of today's supply.

10% of today's oil supply is coming rapidly. The collapse is nigh.

[dolanbaker]

Not in my lifetime anyway, I expect it to take more than 60 years before oil production declines to anywhere near that level, by then human activity will become a lot less "energetic" due to future energy constraints.

[DesuMaiden]

Not in my lifetime anyway, I expect it to take more than 60 years before oil production declines to anywhere near that level, by then human activity will become a lot less "energetic" due to future energy constraints.

It is happening as we speak. The world is peaking in oil, and as a result the economy will collapse.

[dolanbaker]

Not in my lifetime anyway, I expect it to take more than 60 years before oil production declines to anywhere near that level, by then human activity will become a lot less "energetic" due to future energy constraints.

It is happening as we speak. The world is peaking in oil, and as a result the economy will collapse.

Oil is one of many fuels that power the economic engine of the modern world, economic activity will shrink as the energy input reduces and there are no more gains from improved efficiency.
The economy will decline, in an ungainly and unpredictable way, a bit like a drunk going downstairs, but it won't collapse!
Things like the carcentric suburban lifestyle will fade as the availability of fuel shrinks, electric cars will slow down that decline, but eventually suburbs will give way to satellite towns.

[DesuMaiden]

Not in my lifetime anyway, I expect it to take more than 60 years before oil production declines to anywhere near that level, by then human activity will become a lot less "energetic" due to future energy constraints.

It is happening as we speak. The world is peaking in oil, and as a result the economy will collapse.

Oil is one of many fuels that power the economic engine of the modern world, economic activity will shrink as the energy input reduces and there are no more gains from improved efficiency.
The economy will decline, in an ungainly and unpredictable way, a bit like a drunk going downstairs, but it won't collapse!
Things like the carcentric suburban lifestyle will fade as the availability of fuel shrinks, electric cars will slow down that decline, but eventually suburbs will give way to satellite towns.

Oil powers about 97% of all of the transport around the world. So yes, when we don't have enough oil, the whole system will collapse. Besides the whole economy is a pyramid scheme that relies on infinite growth. When growth is no longer possible, the pyramid scheme unravels, and we are met with an deflationary and then inflationary crisis.

[ennui2]

They can't import anymore food without cheap fossil fuel aided transportation.

I know this is a big talking point for doomers, but I've changed my perspective of late. Think about it. People were importing spice from asia thousands of years ago. Think of all those amphora of wine and other foodstuffs they keep finding in old shipwrecks. These days there's quite a lot of economy in, let's say, a cargo ship full of grain. So I don't buy the idea that there won't be any international food trade post-peak. I don't deny that prices will go up but there will remain some form of trade for a long time.

[ralfy]

Except that thousands of years ago the global population was much smaller, the effects of environmental damage or even global warming not as prominent, and both arms production and military spending not the same as what we have today.

[DesuMaiden]

They can't import anymore food without cheap fossil fuel aided transportation.

I know this is a big talking point for doomers, but I've changed my perspective of late. Think about it. People were importing spice from asia thousands of years ago. Think of all those amphora of wine and other foodstuffs they keep finding in old shipwrecks. These days there's quite a lot of economy in, let's say, a cargo ship full of grain. So I don't buy the idea that there won't be any international food trade post-peak. I don't deny that prices will go up but there will remain some form of trade for a long time.

World trade did exist before oil. But we will never have globalization at the level we have today without the use of oil. Oil made globalization possible. If you take the oil away, globalization as an economic model is OVER. It is an unavoidable conclusion that if you take away oil the global economy will contract. And as the economy contracts while the population keeps on growing, this will cause society to collapse because there will not be enough jobs for people. Of course, when food stops being delivered to grocery stores, the only way you can survive is to locally produce food. Otherwise, you will starve to death. So if everyone started to produce food locally, then everyone will be employed and well-fed. If we continue the current economic paradigm into the future, we are doomed as a species because long-distance global trade is impossible without oil.