[Lore]

You're right of course, sorry I intruded.

Pops, you never intrude.

[PrestonSturges]

We rely on the Gulf Stream to push low pressure systems north and out to sea. What would it be like if a hurricane just squatted in one spot for a week?

Jet Streams, Coriolis Effect and Hadley Cell Circulation are more likely than the Gulf Stream to move a low pressure system north.

Don't count on the jet stream any more! Yes it still flows, but it no longer moving west to east like it used to. We'll see if that's the new trend.

[dohboi]

http://link.springer.com/article/10.100 ... 015-2540-2

On likely consequences of AMOC slowdown, focused on Europe. Thanks to Yvan Dutil at rc for the link.

"...Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal.

Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect.

In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production."

[Peak_Yeast]

"4-inch sea level rise of the U.S. East Coast in 2009 and 2010"..

I am surprised that this is the first time i hear any mention of this rise in sea level...

[hvacman]

I am surprised that this is the first time i hear any mention of this rise in sea level...

local sea levels are rapidly going up in some areas and dropping in others, based on the land itself rising (like post glacial rebound in Alaska) or sinking (like in southern LA). Global average sea level rise is currently about 3 mm/year, or about 1" every 8 years, mostly due to ocean thermal expansion. Where is that thermal heat coming from? That is what many try to just stick the heads into the disappearing beach sand and deny.

[dohboi]

"stick the heads into the disappearing beach sand"

Nice!

Even a bit of slowing of the AMOC is going to increase slr on the East Coast of the US, since the speed of the current acts to 'pull' water away from the coast and creates a 'hump' over where the AMOC flows. Slowing lowers the height of the 'hump' but increases the levels further way, including near the shore.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Relax, OS. All of science is no more than pesonal observation. Any red-state politician can tell you that. A snowball in March is all the proof you need to disprove global warming. Why waste tax dollars to disprove the science of personal observation?

Right, Timo. Thanks for reminding me of that. And thanks for the sarcasm. Living in a red state, without sarcasm and laughter to deal with certain locally prevailing attitudes about science related politics, my blood pressure would certainly kill me in time.

[Timo]

Relax, OS. All of science is no more than pesonal observation. Any red-state politician can tell you that. A snowball in March is all the proof you need to disprove global warming. Why waste tax dollars to disprove the science of personal observation?

Right, Timo. Thanks for reminding me of that. And thanks for the sarcasm. Living in a red state, without sarcasm and laughter to deal with certain locally prevailing attitudes about science related politics, my blood pressure would certainly kill me in time.

Sarcasm???? I was serious!!!!

That was sarcasm.

[Peak_Yeast]

@hvacman: Yes - I have heard and read about the thermal expansion and the rise and fall of landmasses. For example Denmark is half rising and half falling over an axis since the glaciers diseapperared some 10.000 years ago. About half the country was covered with a (if i remember correctly from primary school) 1 KM thick icesheet. This part is rising now due to the lessened pressure. I certainly do not look forward to this coming back, but if you look at the geological record of temperatures it could happen anytime now. - So perhaps we In Denmark should praise the global warming

Its the "sudden" increase 4-5 years ago I am wondering about. It should have made headlines everywhere, but it seems like it was making headlines nowhere.

[Newfie]

I recently learned of the Chesapeake impact crater. It seems its shoulders are still crumbling, leading to additional subsidence in Norfolk, Va, which is getting some serious water influx issues.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapea ... act_crater

[KaiserJeep]

I didn't know about that Chesapeake impact either. Interesting that we could get smacked that hard without a mass extinction event. It might have been a cometary snowball instead of a big rock like the Chicxulub asteroid impact 65 million year ago.

[Subjectivist]

Kind of makes you wonder if Chesepeake has oil like Cantarell does?

[dohboi]

On Chicxulub, see: https://www.skepticalscience.com/So-wha ... saurs.html

On the greatest mass extinction event: https://www.skepticalscience.com/pollution-part-1.html
and: https://www.skepticalscience.com/pollution-part-2.html

[onlooker]

I was watching the History channel, a show about what was termed the "Little Ice Age" from about 1350 to about 1850 . It stated that one theory why scientists think this weather anomaly occurred was because in the period before 1350, the climate in Europe had become quite a bit warmer which began to melt glaciers and this melting deposited much fresh water which in turn stopped the Ocean Conveyor-Circulation systems and thus threw Europe into a freeze for the stated period of time. How credible is this theory? Is a scenario like the movie "The Day after Tommorrow", even possible? Can we abruptly in the Northern Hemisphere go into a deep freeze because of the halt of the Great Conveyor-Circulatory currents system?

[dissident]

I was watching the History channel, a show about what was termed the "Little Ice Age" from about 1350 to about 1850 . It stated that one theory why scientists think this weather anomaly occurred was because in the period before 1350, the climate in Europe had become quite a bit warmer which began to melt glaciers and this melting deposited much fresh water which in turn stopped the Ocean Conveyor-Circulation systems and thus threw Europe into a freeze for the stated period of time. How credible is this theory? Is a scenario like the movie "The Day after Tommorrow", even possible? Can we abruptly in the Northern Hemisphere go into a deep freeze because of the halt of the Great Conveyor-Circulatory currents system?

This theory is not credible. The amount of land ice melt during this period was just too small to produce the sort of impact on the THC being claimed. It takes a huge amount of fresh water flux to "shut down" the THC. Of the levels we had when the enormous melt water lakes roughly 12,000 years ago drained catastrophically both into the Arctic Ocean (via the Beaufort Sea) and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

The little ice age was modulated by solar activity (yes, the Sun actually does play a role ). The medieval warm period was not warmer than today in spite of all the denier claims but there could have been an ocean circulation impact qualitatively if not quantitatively similar to what we are seeing today. There has not been enough study of the ocean circulation response to various regional and global climate anomalies.

[onlooker]

thanks for the explanation dissident.

[dohboi]

The other thing that happened starting around 1500 and culminating around 1600 was the draw down of lots of CO2 from the atmosphere as millions of Native Americans succumbed to European diseases and their farmlands returned to forest. That reduced CO2 levels by about 7 ppm, enough to have a noticeable effect in some regions like Northern Europe.

[dissident]

The other thing that happened starting around 1500 and culminating around 1600 was the draw down of lots of CO2 from the atmosphere as millions of Native Americans succumbed to European diseases and their farmlands returned to forest. That reduced CO2 levels by about 7 ppm, enough to have a noticeable effect in some regions like Northern Europe.

That is a good point. Land use changes were happening in Europe as well, which had an impact on regional climate. The Black Death during the 1346-53 period also resulted in a lot of farm land regressing and it took a while for the population to recover. The New Word die off was a second stage that prolonged the effect.

But the oceans are what allows the system to have any thermal memory. So multi-decadal climate anomalies always involve the oceans. Even if stopped emitting CO2 today and any other greenhouse gas, humanity will be seeing the impact fore the next few centuries if not for several thousand years.

[frankthetank]

At this point what can we do? Nothing. Let it ride. Live somewhere you think will work for you climatically. Its not like the oceans are going to rise overnight (?????). I do think, from what i've read, the sunspot activity is going to fall off a cliff in the years ahead and may result is cooler weather for some areas of the next few decades..but who knows. I'm at 45N so global warming isn't at all unwelcome to these parts... I do know if California doesn't get some rain/snow we are all going to be eating out of our own gardens.

[Lore]

At this point what can we do? Nothing. Let it ride. Live somewhere you think will work for you climatically. Its not like the oceans are going to rise overnight (?????). I do think, from what i've read, the sunspot activity is going to fall off a cliff in the years ahead and may result is cooler weather for some areas of the next few decades..but who knows. I'm at 45N so global warming isn't at all unwelcome to these parts... I do know if California doesn't get some rain/snow we are all going to be eating out of our own gardens.

Of course there is nowhere on the planet that you can go that won't be affected to at least some degree by climate change. Then you have the problem of those areas that are temporarily least affected having everyone rush to them. Which creates a whole new predicament. You can run, but you can't hide.

The oceans won't need to rise overnight to develop widespread panic. As soon as the general public and property owner realizes they are endanger from long term future inundation or drought, their property will become wothless. This will happen long before the actual severe impacts are felt.

Also, don't count on a temporary loss in irradiation from the sun, since science tells us it's contribution is minimal over the short term on climate.

I live 45N too and the change would hurt more crops here then it would help.

I remember a time when most of our food at the market was local. Except for oranges, bananas, spices and such. Not much variety, depending on the season. Going back to that wouldn't be such a bad thing. Food would have to be localized again though in a less then hospitable environment.