[ennui2]

there exists the appropriate high-technology and permaculture systems such that every family could have the land, leisure lives like the Elite of the past. But our land was stolen and never returned.

Stolen... The 'bad guys'(TM) narrative yet again. Cowboys and Indians. How simplistic. Our land? Who is "our"? You're a white guy, right? At some point a descendant of some settler who "stole" land from the native americans, native americans who chose to occupy land previously allocated to wild animals like bison, as we originally all came from Africa (and presumably, never deserved to expand beyond our birthplace). Are you entitled to your patch of land behind the redwood curtain? No. You're a squatter, basically, backed up by paper issued by the government you despise. All this moralism is merely drawing an arbitrary line in the sand beyond which you portray people as either victims or victimizers, or just plain stupid.

Force of rebellion will gradually morph into demand for land. Calls for Land Redistribution will echo through the cities. Revolution will rise once again as it always has.

You missed a section in your end-times screed. Some of that land that will be in dispute will probably be your little permie oasis. So don't get so romantic about this leveling of the playing field when the locusts descend on you in the name of getting their fair share of the biosphere.

[onlooker]

In answer to this main post, the forces of isolationism and conflict we have all spoken about and are well known in this current iteration of society. Yet we will be working in the context of strong forces of cohesion as well. The need to band together against very great difficulties. The universal rejection of the dominant creeds and ethos of this current modern society. The backlash against the few elites in power by the great masses of people around the world are some of the dynamics which can lead to cohesion. Ultimately as it involves human affairs, humans can go either way. They can chose competition or cooperation. That choice will be individually made by every single person.

[Pops]

7 billion on the planet divided into nation states that are juggling domestic and international obligations, treaties, trade alliances and environmental accords. How will increased domestic tensions that follow the consequences of human overshoot affect nation’s ability to hold together global alliances when populist movements will invariably arise that will call for isolationism and nationalism?

I've been on kind of a apocalyptic novel binge lately. I gave a poor book report on the Kunstler book (got an F for not finishing) and since have read "Made By Hand" and another, called "Station Eleven" (pandemic) and "Passage" (vampire pandemic) and "One Second After" (EMP) and of course there are all the others Faves, "The Stand", "Alas, Babylon" "the Postman" , I can't remember them all...

It strikes me that most have in common is collectivism. The characters usually collect together after the fall for mutual support. (Some exceptions of course, The Road is a great example)

The reason is simple, excess energy make each of us a collective of a sort, me and my 100 slaves can get quite a bit done in a day. Send them on vacation and it gets a little hard to complete all my chores. The slave are what makes people begin to think "I built that." It is just way too easy to believe that it isn't the slaves that made us so independent, powerful, overstuffed, it is us ourselves and our superior intellect, work ethic, prayer habits, whatever, that is the reason.

In the framework of capitalism I'd expect unions to have a resurgence once effects actually become dire. People will by and large react logically, if they think being on the side of management is the more profitable stance (an "operator" as AR frames it), they'll be on the side of management. But when that no longer works, after an interval they will pick up the protest sign or even the pitchforks.

[ennui2]

Ennui3, you don't understand your place in the world, in the ecology. You are a city boy and no nothing about country ways. There is nothing romantic or moralistic about what I said. It is mere thermodynamics and population.

Yes. I "no nothing" about country ways. I bow down to your green wizardry.

Seriously though, doomers of all stripes (me included) love to lapse into Moses-speak when we talk about our future narratives. I know what that is when the spiel comes flying through the keyboard. It's the story we want to tell ourselves so we're content with our life-decisions. Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to play out that way or leave you or me in the spot that we think it will. Most aren't humble or reflective enough to realize it, so they dig their heels in and double-down on their narrative.

[Ibon]

It appears this thread is/was (according to the OP) about the intersection of peak oil,ecology, overshoot, psychology, politics and rebellion.

My simple take: the neolithic revolution never ended and the Masters are still at war with the Masses. Those Masters:

--encircled the Commons and closed off the grazing lands,
--enslaved and starved the Shepherds and their tribes,
--forced them to grow and eat addictive carbohydrates grains,
--stored the grain bounty,
--parsed out those stores to build armies and,
--encircle more Commons and enslave more Masses.
--rinse and repeat.

Monocrop industrial wheat, corn, and soybean agriculture does this today. We are enslaved in Consumer Shopping Ghettos. Yet there exists the appropriate high-technology and permaculture systems such that every family could have the land, leisure lives like the Elite of the past. But our land was stolen and never returned.

As our JIT industrial food/retail system collapse from lack of inexpensive energy and credit, folks will discover their diet of junk food, coffee, and selfies is just not enough. Force of rebellion will gradually morph into demand for land. Calls for Land Redistribution will echo through the cities. Revolution will rise once again as it always has.

What I was most interested in with this thread was investigating how constraints moving forward will affect two over arching movements in our global population, one more cohesive as in the global trade alliances, commerce, climate change accords, etc. and the other the tendency to become more nationalistic and isolation oriented when domestic instabilities start dominating the agendas of sovereign nations.

The masses still seem to perceive their lot and society as a whole resilient enough to remain "bought" by the masters.

I do think there is a kind of growing crowd of folks who are opting to not participate. They are trying to free themselves of the masters. They do not form groups nor are the represented. This is a quiet revolution of withdrawing from participation in consumption. It is not yet really a political movement though. I can imagine it could become one. Yeah, based on land, energy, and even cooperative industries that focus on the basics as part of a greater ideology of resiliency.......this would really start to make sense when consequences make this a physical necessity, not a wished for ideology like we still see today.

We really do need the catalyst of consequences to get that revolution rolling. The status quo, with all its inherent failures and finite duration, is still far to resilient.

[ennui2]

I do think there is a kind of growing crowd of folks who are opting to not participate.

I think maybe you're in a business where you come into contact with these people a lot. Calling the crowd "growing" might be a little much.

Seems like most people in the developed world are behaving much as they did during the dot com bubble. It will never be the same again as it was pre-911 and pre-recession, but still, it's about as good as people could expect it to be under the circumstances.

[Timo]

Ibon, I could be totally wrong in my interpretation of this event, but the Dems revolt against Obama with the TPP might be an early sign of choosing not to participate. The TPP (on the surface, anyway) would remove several sovereign protections given to workers, and the environment. Dems chose isolation, in the sense that we do not want to outsource all of our trade. There is some element of protectionism with regard to American workers, and America's physical environment. The TPP would have blown another hole in our abilities to protect our own interests.

Personally, this does give me hope for the future.

[Ibon]

I do think there is a kind of growing crowd of folks who are opting to not participate.

I think maybe you're in a business where you come into contact with these people a lot. Calling the crowd "growing" might be a little much.

Let's not focus so much on revolution. That is down the road a bit and like I mentioned it would require some set backs from the current resiliency to get folks on a revolutionary state of mind.

What Timo just posted is definitely an example of a more isolationist or protectionist position with the Dem party which is related to this thread. Also the comments Pops made about collectivism becoming trendy once again when hardships start.

It does make sense that during the most excessive periods of consumption and opulence during the past 20 years that this coincided with the strongest period of individualism.

Regarding Timo's post or recent comments about the values of a significant portion of the emerging millennial generation, we may now see the beginning of a more collectivist sentiment, shared economy, at least protectionist.

I think it is a fairly safe bet that collectivism will increase and coincide with declines in wealth and the individuals ability to maintain high levels of consumption.

Remember my comment that the need for status never goes away but the symbols that represent that status can change.

Being a community leader in times of hardship may be selective for survival and may appear a lot more sexy than some selfish libertarian.

It's a good exercise keeping the pulse of your social groups as time moves forward in regards to this topic.

[Timo]

It's a good exercise keeping the pulse of your social groups as time moves forward in regards to this topic.

Ahhh, that's where you lost me. I don't belong to any social group, at least in the normal sense of the term, unless that group was considered to be the present company here at PO. My hockey team is deinitely NOT social. All we do whenever we're together is get drunk and skate around on razor blades, and hit people as hard as we can. That's plenty of fun, but not very social.

Then again, i am chair of my building's Anti-Social Committee. As far as i know, we've never met, and i have no idea who any other members might be.

[Ibon]

Then again, i am chair of my building's Anti-Social Committee. As far as i know, we've never met, and i have no idea who any other members might be.

As chairman it is time for you to get them altogether for a big group hug.

[careinke]

I do think there is a kind of growing crowd of folks who are opting to not participate. They are trying to free themselves of the masters. They do not form groups nor are the represented. This is a quiet revolution of withdrawing from participation in consumption. It is not yet really a political movement though. I can imagine it could become one. Yeah, based on land, energy, and even cooperative industries that focus on the basics as part of a greater ideology of resiliency.......this would really start to make sense when consequences make this a physical necessity, not a wished for ideology like we still see today.

We really do need the catalyst of consequences to get that revolution rolling. The status quo, with all its inherent failures and finite duration, is still far to resilient.

+ 1
In your last sentence above, I would replace the word resilient with either powerful or forceful. Other than that, I think you are right, more and more, people have begun the process of opting out (not participating) wherever possible.

For example; Jack Spirko from "The Survival Podcast" is calling for just that, quit participating in the system wherever possible. His podcast has been on the "air" for over six years and he has built up a listener base of over 100,000 people. I like him because he is a Minarchist and Permaculturist, like me. His podcasts are practical based and on areas I am interested in learning about. A lot of people calling in to his shows are intent on non violent insurrection and localized living.

I live on Key Peninsula, Washington. Being a Peninsula, the locals are separated from the rest of the county and any incorporated towns. There are lots of local groups, meet ups, and FB groups for the key. For example a Key Peninsula FB group for posting traffic accidents, local robberies, lost/found animals, cool pics etc., A FB group where you can only post stuff you want to give away/get (No money or bartering allowed), A FB group for bartering, another for gardening, etc. all of these groups are "closed groups" to keep it local.

Although we have lots of poverty, (as defined by the government), people here go out of their way to help each other out. Lots of good food gets traded, and lots of good food gets donated to our different food banks. Just yesterday, I brought six dozen pastured local grown (mine) eggs to the foodbank less than a mile away, run by local volunteers.

Last week someone found a young homeless man camping on his property. Rather than kick him off his property, he let him stay, and posted his plight on the local FB page. Within three days people got him a job, provided him with a cookstove, food, and clothing to tide him over. In addition, many have offered him nights at their place when he needs it. All done with the help of local citizens, and no govt needed.

We are not all evil, ignorant yes, but not evil. When the chips fly, people will do what needs to be done. Hopefully, there will be enough teachers and experience to get the newbies through the transition. On the bright side, there will be lots of jobs (work) to do.

[Timo]

Then again, i am chair of my building's Anti-Social Committee. As far as i know, we've never met, and i have no idea who any other members might be.

As chairman it is time for you to get them altogether for a big group hug.

Uhhh.............hmmmmmmmmm.................b-b-b-b-but that would defeat the purpose being ANTI-social. By being social, we would cease to be!

[Ibon]

I live on Key Peninsula, Washington. Being a Peninsula, the locals are separated from the rest of the county and any incorporated towns. There are lots of local groups, meet ups, and FB groups for the key.

The very nature of this kind of local support groups means that it does not enter into the mainstream mind set. It is not represented in the media. It is local and closed. It never has to justify itself to consensus reality.

We all assume that the status quo is this big monolithic over arching identity and dominant culture. In reality it isn't. It is quite an illusion actually. And it could crumble and dissolve away more quickly than folks realize.

I for one fully expect consequences to radically alter the cultural landscape in almost every country this century, not to speak of bio regions, communities etc.

[Timo]

Last week someone found a young homeless man camping on his property. Rather than kick him off his property, he let him stay, and posted his plight on the local FB page. Within three days people got him a job, provided him with a cookstove, food, and clothing to tide him over. In addition, many have offered him nights at their place when he needs it. All done with the help of local citizens, and no govt needed.

I genuinely think there is a growing (albeit very slow) movement in the direction you just illustrated here. Maybe even calling it a movement is too generous. Actions like this have always been around, and as you said, people are not inherently evil. I disagree with that part, but on the larger scale, the good do outnumber the Kochs. I mean, the good Samaritan is a good example of what you just described. Good acts have always been with us, but in recent times, our affluence has afforded humanity the opportunity to turn a blind eye to other's suffering, or rather, our affluence has afforded us the opportunity to be shielded from other's suffering. Out of sight, out of mind.

Personally, I hate Facebook. I don't use it, and have no plans to succumb to its clenches. I don't tweet, either. That's just me though. In your example, social media can and does serve a very useful purpose, and it can actually become a catalyst to exemplify good deeds, and encourage others to follow in those ways. In that sense, good deeds might grow from rare occurrences to more mainstream and acceptable behaviors. Most people who've posted in this thread have spoken to witnessing some examples of a trend in this direction. My only concern is that we're fueling our own optimism with wishful thinking, singing to the choir, so-to-speak. It's an awfully big world out there. No one denies that people are capable of performing good deeds for others. Those good deeds are happening, too. But, is it a movement? A trend? Is it growing? Will it be enough?

I can't even begin to answer those questions. I find myself doubting my own optimism.

[Pops]

Attitudes are independent of situations or predictions.

A person can have an extremely bleak assessment of the future and still be optimistic. They are two different things altogether but folks seem to have a hard time separating the two. People mistake me for pollyanna all the time because I don't underline the "we're dead" parts. Like the Man said, "What you think you become."

And like my Momma said, "'Can't' never did anything."

[ennui2]

I am just not down with the "people opting out is a growing trend".

I think if people were doing that in greater numbers, we'd at least see an uptick of posters here.

I think maybe more people are buying solar panels (because they're cheaper) and trying to generally greenwash their lifestyles (McDonalds is going out of fashion) but that's not really the leading edge of some eco revolution that I can see.

Also, most of the interest in doomsteads seem to originate from yuppies who have taken the red pill and have the money to burn on building what would be effectively a glorified summer home. That seems to be the main income stream for "permaculture designers" like the guy up in VT that I visited once. He has a side business doing doomstead planning for wealthy Massholes. And if I had enough money I'd probably be one of his clients.

I think for the most part what we have here is a purely psychological phenomenon. What I mean by that is people take the red pill, and then they continue to go through the motions of BAU because that's what pays the bills the best for them. But they have little support groups and they wring their hands over guilt and fear issues, but for the most part, it hasn't changed their lifestyle and it hasn't caused them to turn into activists.

[Ibon]

I am just not down with the "people opting out is a growing trend".


Also, most of the interest in doomsteads seem to originate from yuppies who have taken the red pill and have the money to burn on building what would be effectively a glorified summer home. That seems to be the main income stream for "permaculture designers" like the guy up in VT that I visited once. He has a side business doing doomstead planning for wealthy Massholes. And if I had enough money I'd probably be one of his clients.

Older folks are coping and at best can be mentors with what they dabble in regarding alternatives. They are slowly obsolete. Look to the younger emerging generations moving into adulthood from within a new set of parameters. They adapt and being inherently optimistic and idealistic, they will be the ones to make a budding trend mature into something more culturally transformative.

Ennui, you are on a roll in calling everyone out. By the way JMG made reference to you specifically in this weeks essay over on his blog. Read it. I am pretty sure he was referring to your post here at po.com on the JMG thread. Anyway, whatever direction we are taking going forward that eventually moves to some alternative, it is full of imperfection and human frailty. If an aging gray haired hippy turns his summer home into something sustainable and if his motives are not pure but a mixture of self serving interests together with some real innovations, this is not to be discounted.

No one is holy here. The pathway is one full of human frailty and imperfections. Identifying the human weakness does not discredit the underlying understanding.

What sharpens integrity in this whole topic of adaptation and alternatives are those upcoming consequences.

These are early days.

[Ibon]

Attitudes are independent of situations or predictions.

A person can have an extremely bleak assessment of the future and still be optimistic.

That is pretty much where I am at. I take my inherent optimism and tend to leap frog over the painful realities coming up due to overshoot and land on the other side of the bottleneck to those culturally transformed surviving humans. My optimism, to remain credible and not be self delusional, has to make this leap frog to the other side of the catalyst of consequences where humans will be honed into culturally self regulating their consumption and population.

In what remains of my mortal life I am also inherently positive, putting my net worth into a piece of land and celebrating the natural wonders still intact here. All that is imperfect does not drag me down because I have made an intentional choice to withdraw myself from being in relationship to human stupidity.