The Shanghai Cooperation Organization will "upgrade" Iran's status in the group if Tehran reaches an agreement with international powers on its nuclear program, Russia's foreign minister has said. Meanwhile, China is pushing for the organization to take a greater role in regional security.
The SCO foreign ministers met in Moscow this week in preparation for the July 9-10 summit in Ufa. It has been clear for some time that this would be an expansion summit, at least for India and Pakistan. Those countries are now observers, but have sought full membership for years. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that: "If relevant decisions are made in Ufa, they will pave the way for the SCO’s extension, and India and Pakistan will have an opportunity to launch the initial procedures for joining the SCO."
The SCO now includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
The greater drama with respect to expanding the organization will be around Iran, which also has been an observer with aspirations to full membership. And Lavrov confirmed previous reports that the SCO is explicitly tying progress on Iran's nuclear talks to SCO membership: "We reviewed the application of Iran, which has actively taken part in the SCO activities as an observer state," he said. "We unanimously stood for upgrading Iran’s status in our organisation in the context of a comprehensive settlement of the situation regarding its nuclear programme."
In April, Iran reached agreement with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China on a tentative framework for a nuclear deal; the countries are working to finalize the deal by the end of June.
Meanwhile, at the Moscow meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the group should take on more of a security role. "Wang noted that in the face of the complicated global and regional situation, the SCO has the obligation and ability to play a more constructive role and make greater contributions to regional security and stability," Xinhua reported. "Wang also called on the SCO members to enhance their ability to maintain stability and to eradicate potential security threats in the region."
What does that mean? The most recent joint SCO military exercises were the biggest ever. Will the SCO be taking on more of a military role, now with India, Pakistan, and maybe Iran included?
India and Pakistan on Thursday moved closer to becoming members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the six-nation bloc, which is led by Russia and China and perceived as a counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Foreign ministers of Russia, China and four other members of the SCO had a meeting in Moscow and recommended elevation of both India and Pakistan from ‘observers’ to ‘members’ of the organsation. The decision may lead to Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the SCO summit at Ufa in Russia next month. This may even create an opportunity for Modi having a bilateral meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister M Nawaz Sharif on the sideline.
Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, announced the decision after the meeting in Moscow. “We adopted recommendations paving the way for India and Pakistan accession to the SCO,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian government posted on Twitter quoting Lavrov on Thursday.
The Russian government on Tuesday approved a draft bill to boost the country's trade with China within the mechanism of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an upcoming summit of the bloc is to be held in Russia.
The bill, submitted for government consideration by Russian Foreign Ministry and Transportation Ministry, would simplify and harmonize the SCO countries' national procedures regarding cross-border road transit, according to a government statement.
In particular, it will lifts the existing ban on the entry of Russian vehicles to China through border check points from Kazakhstan, and as a result, boost the trade turnover between Russian and China, said the statement.
Founded in 2001, the SCO has China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its full members, with Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan as observers and Belarus, Turkey and Sri Lanka as dialogue partners.
Russia holds the rotating presidency of the SCO in 2015, with a summit to be held in Ufa, the capital of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia, in early July.
Modi's five-nation tour of Central Asia in July, the focus is back on an agreement for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) that India signed more than a decade ago with Russia and Iran -- even as a June 30 deadline for the Iranian nuclear deal draws near.
The INSTC agreement was signed more than a decade ago for better connectivity to the Eurasian region through Iran. The INSTC members met earlier this month and reviewed the status of report on the dry run between India, Iran and Russia via the Caspian Sea, while a follow-up meeting has been slated for July.
The transport corridor across Nhava Sheva (Mumbai) through Bandar Abbas (Iran) to Astrakhan (Russia) and Baku (Azerbaijan) is expected to substantially cut cargo transportation time between India, the Central Asian region and Russia.
In connection with Tuesday's deadline for Iran's nuclear agreement with the P5+1 group of nations, an official source here told IANS that India has been cautioned by the US to avoid doing business with Iran till the nuclear deal is finalised.
Road Transport and Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari travelled to Tehran last month to sign an MoU on expansion of the Chabahar port in Iran.
In July, Modi is slated to visit Ufa City in Russia for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS summits, where he will also have an extended meeting with President Vladimir Putin on plans to further the strategic partnership between Russia and India.
Thereafter, he will visit the central Asian nations of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, making for the first visit by an Indian prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to a region linked by history with India.
While Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have some of the biggest natural gas reserves, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are estimated to have considerable untapped reserves.
India's historical ties to Central Asia run deep considering the journey of the Turkicised Mongols from the region to India to found the Mughal Empire.
Meanwhile, India and the three-member Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have set up a joint study group to explore the feasibility of a free-trade agreement for promoting bilateral trade and investments, India's commerce ministry said in a statement here earlier this week.
The study group will submit its report within a year.
Ever since Henry Kissinger forged the global petro-dollar agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC in 1973, the U.S. currency has remained the singular global reserve for over 40 years. However, on June 9 that sole monetary reign has come to an end as Russian gas giant Gazprom is now officially selling all oil in Chinese Yuan, making the petro-Yuan a joint global reserve, and ending America's sole control over the world's reserve currency.
Less than two years ago, Russia and China forged an agreement where they would construct a platform to allow sales of oil and natural gas to be done in both Roubles and Yuan. However, in its early stages this was limited to transactions between both countries and a small number of trade partners. But with today's confirmation of a fully functional petro-yuan system being implemented by Russia, the world no longer needs to accrue dollar reserves to purchase energy, and the beginning of the end of the petro-dollar is now underway.
In addition to oil sales, a new report has also verified that Russia is on course to settle nearly all of their trade in the Renminbi, creating a scenario where other countries can soon de-dollarize and no longer require American currency to purchase energy, or engage in bi-lateral trade.
As OPEC continues to use production quotas as a means to attack Russia and other energy producers, the Eurasian power is fighting back by using the petro-yuan as a lever to take away customers from Saudi Arabia, and to block potential ramifications from continued U.S. sanctions. And with China already prepared for an eventual floating of the RMB as it constructs its Belt and Road (Silk Road) initiative, the final battle over control of the next global reserve currency is now front and center, and the singular reign of the petro-dollar is now at an end.
Within the past 10 days, Russia and China have concluded two historic energy agreements in which both oil and natural gas will now be sold using the Yuan currency. And with Russia beginning oil talks with Saudi Arabia on June 18 during the economic forum currently being held in St. Petersburg, the next step towards lessening the use of the dollar in global energy purchases could very well be underway.
Nine days ago, Russia and China reached a historic milestone as the Petro-Yuan entered into the global economy through a new program instituted by Gazprom Neft, where the third largest oil company in Russia began selling its production solely in RMB, and provided the rest of the global community the chance to purchase oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar. Yet the significance of this agreement is only half the story as China released new data three days later that showed their reliance upon Saudi oil was waning at the same time their imports from Russia were increasing.
And it appears now that this trend could be what is bringing Saudi Arabia to Russia, since production cuts to raise prices are off the table, and not part of the primary discussions.
It may take until the end of this week's economic forum in St. Petersburg to determine the full extent of Russia's talks with Saudi Arabia, but at stake appears to be the future of dollar hegemony over oil. And as pipelines continue to be built that bypass the Middle Eastern Kingdom, and bring both oil and natural gas to Europe through alternative routes such as Turkey and the North Sea, cooperation rather than competition is a vital key to creating energy policies that will benefit both producers in the future.
On June 25, a representative from the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that they are planning on establishing a new physical gold price mechanism by the end of the year that will compete with London and the U.S. Comex. Expected to be denominated in Yuan, this new gold price platform comes less than 10 days after China became the first Asian country invited to be a part of the London gold fix, and unlike the U.S. Comex, will deal in direct physical gold sales rather than in paper futures and derivative contracts.
When the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) opened in 2014, it set out to usurp the West's control over gold and their pricing of gold through the paper markets. And in less than a year, the SGE has created the world's largest gold fund, and is now ready to take over pricing and price discovery for the monetary metal. In fact, sources claim that right now premiums on large sales of gold bullion are ranging as high as $600 over the current paper spot price.
A yuan-denominated gold fix will be launched by year-end via the Shanghai Gold Exchange to give the world's biggest producer and leading consumer of bullion more influence over pricing.
The first public confirmation made by an exchange official comes after Reuters cited sources in February on the proposal for the fix to be set through trading on the SGE, the world's biggest physical bullion exchange.
"We will be introducing a yuan-denominated fix at the right moment. We hope to introduce (it) by the end of the year," SGE Vice-President Shen Gang said at the LBMA Bullion Market Forum in Shanghai on Thursday.
"We have policy support for development (of the gold market)," she added. - China Daily
The most interesting thing that will occur from this gold pricing policy is how London and the Comex will deal with the metal should China suddenly set the price far above the current paper spot. If the West still has alot of physical gold in their reserves, they can make a large amount of money arbitraging their buy price with China's sell price. However, it appears for the most part that the amount of gold remaining in London and Comex vaults is limited, and they will be unable to stop the Far Eastern market from determining the physical price should they decide to raise it to much higher levels.
The gold markets in the West have been drained for some time, and are now simply derivatives markets that are protected by London's ability to price gold much lower than supply and demand dictates. And since the Comex has not actually delivered any metals for more than two years despite them being a futures delivery market, the potential that China's move to take over physical gold pricing within the next six months could very easily cause a derivatives meltdown, and drive the price of gold even higher than the SGE might set it at.
China will re-price gold to near or above twice the current price, which will have a devastating effect on derivatives and ongoing use of the Comex futures market to suppress gold prices, and protect the dollar.
And based upon supply details for the Comex over the past two years, America's primary gold exchange no longer settles their contracts through the delivery of physical gold, but instead settles in cash payments or through the hedging of gold using derivatives. Subsequently, once this failure to deliver takes place, then China, through the Shanghai gold exchange, will become the default market for price discovery, and at that point will re-adjust gold to its true value, instantly causing massive chaos in the fiat currency markets and leaving the world little alternative but to implement a complete currency reset.
When we get this next global currency reset, it's going to be a complete reset. It apparently will happen predominantly in the gold world. They are going to change the price of gold, and jam it down the U.S.'s throat.
Take a look at the Comex. Since the middle of 2012 or so, they've been forcing gold contracts to settle not in metal, but in cash. And if you don't like it, they'll ban you from the Comex. There's been very little if any settlement of gold futures contracts for two years in gold metal. They're not a gold market anymore, they're a derivative market for gold instruments.
So, in late September, Shanghai started offering a gold and futures contract, and they're settling in metal. And this is rabidly threatening the United States and London.
Over the past several weeks, the dollar has grown in strength at the same time the rest of the world's currencies have been collapsing. And because of this, global accumulation of physical gold at depressed levels is running at or near historic highs in an attempt to hedge sovereign currencies that have run out of muster from years of low interest rates and slow money velocities. And as several global financial indicators begin to reach a nexus, and threaten once again to bring the world into another economic crisis, China is recognizing that physical gold is the ultimate catalyst to force an end to the domination of purely fiat finance, and that by revaluing gold to its rightful price will have the effect of both protecting their own currency, and wresting financial control away from the West and the system of dollar hegemony.
Also a SCO meeting. The minimal coverage in the Western media is derogatory (Google for "BRICS summit Ufa")There’s been a virtual blackout of news from this year’s seventh annual BRICS summit in Ufa, Russia. None of the mainstream media organizations are covering the meetings or making any attempt to explain what’s going on. As a result, the American people remain largely in the dark about a powerful coalition of nations that are putting in place an alternate system that will greatly reduce US influence in the world and end the current era of superpower rule. ...
... The dollar is toast. The IMF is toast. The US debt market (US Treasuries) is toast. The institutions that support US power are crumbling before our very eyes. The BRICS have had enough; enough war, enough Wall Street, enough meddling and hypocrisy and austerity and lecturing. This is farewell. Sure, it will take time, but Ufa marks a fundamental change in thinking, a fundamental change in approach, and a fundamental change in strategic orientation.
The BRICS are not coming back, they’re gone for good, just as Washington’s “pivot to Asia” is gone for good. There’s just too much resistance. Washington has simply overplayed its hand, worn out its welcome. People are sick of us.
After 18 days of intense and often fractious negotiation, world powers and Iran struck a landmark deal Tuesday to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in relief from international sanctions — an agreement designed to avert the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran and another U.S. military intervention in the Muslim world.
The accord will keep Iran from producing enough material for a nuclear weapon for at least 10 years and impose new provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites. And it marks a dramatic break from decades of animosity between the United States and Iran.
"This is a historic moment," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said as he attended a final session alongside his counterparts from the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia in Vienna on Tuesday morning. "We are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody, but it is what we could accomplish, and it is an important achievement for all of us. Today could have been the end of hope on this issue. But now we are starting a new chapter of hope."
The formal announcement of the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was to be made after the meeting, and President Barack Obama planned to deliver a statement from the White House.
The breakthrough came after several key compromises.
Diplomats said Iran agreed to the continuation of a U.N. arms embargo on the country for up to five more years, though it could end earlier if the International Atomic Energy Agency definitively clears Iran of any current work on nuclear weapons. A similar condition was put on U.N. restrictions on the transfer of ballistic missile technology to Tehran, which could last for up to eight more years.
Iranian leaders insisted the embargo had to end as their forces combat regional scourges such as the Islamic State. And they got some support from China and particularly Russia, which wants to expand military cooperation and arms sales to Tehran, including the long-delayed transfer of S-300 advanced air defense systems - a move long opposed by the United States.
Another significant agreement will allow U.N. inspectors to press for visits to Iranian military sites as part of their monitoring duties, something the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had long vowed to oppose.
The economic benefits for Iran are potentially massive. It stands to receive more than $100 billion in assets frozen overseas, and an end to a European oil embargo and various financial restrictions on Iranian banks.
Zarif said the agreement was a "win-win solution."
Federica Mogherini, the European Union foreign policy chief, called it "a sign of hope for the entire world."
IRAN could soon become a full member of the the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), Russia’s foreign minister said yesterday.
“We proceed from the assumption that Iran, like India and Pakistan, has applied for full SCO membership,” he said.
Sergei Lavrov was speaking at the joint SCO/Brics summit a day after historic enemies India and Pakistan applied for membership of the Eurasian security bloc.
He told a press conference in Ufa, the capital of the Russian republic of Bashkortostan, that the SCO would help the two countries overcome their differences and added that he welcomed the prospect of the SCO summit approving Iran’s application.
“We are in favour of tomorrow’s summit endorsing this application, so that it is realised on the basis of the regular SCO membership criteria.”
Turning to Western criticism of the Crimea’s reunification with Russia, Mr Lavrov said the Brics and SCO leaders were united on the issue.
“I believe everyone understands — even those who are unable to stop talking about this — that the Crimea issue is closed,” he said.
The Russian politician criticised Western attempts to revise the history of World War II.
He said the position of the SCO was to “prevent the glorification of Nazism and to curb some very dangerous trends that we are observing near our borders on the European continent.”
During the summit last week, the BRICS countries conducted dialogues with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in which each side discussed the expansion of exchanges in politics, economy and culture, it said.
China and Russia have reached an agreement over connecting the Beijing-led "One Belt, One Road" initiative and the EAEU.
"It is a coincidence for the summits of BRICS and SCO to come together in the same city and at the same time. But it showed that the BRICS countries and Eurasian nations are eager to build a new framework of international politics, economy and security, with more democracy, equality, openness and inclusiveness," it said.
While the BRICS group mainly focuses on economic cooperation, the SCO was established primarily for mechanism of security cooperation, it said.
"Regional stability is the basis of the economic collaboration, while the latter can boost the development of the former. In light of this, both the BRICS and the SCO will jointly and effectively promote stability and prosperity in Asia and the entire world," the article said.
At the recent summit of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), in Ufa, Russia, the Russian leader said he hoped to see Chinese companies play a role in the development of Russia’s Far East.
With this in mind, he invited Chinese business executives to the Far-Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on 4 and 5 September.
"I think that Chinese companies could make a significant contribution to the development plans and objectives that we set for ourselves in the region (of Siberia and the Far East)," Putin said at a press conference after the BRICS and SCO summits, held on 8 and 9 July.
The Russian president and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, discussed the matter on the sidelines of the summit.
Although the proximity of the Russian Far East to the Chinese border favours trade between Russia and China, Sino-Russian relations are no longer confined to trading alone.
In fact, many Chinese entrepreneurs are investing in Russia’s most remote and neglected territory, which is rich in natural resources like iron ore, gold, coal, base metals, and rare earth minerals, to fuel China’s economic growth.
With thousands of miles of unexplored land, the Russian Far East is a sparsely populated region, with only 7.4 million people against 90 million Chinese who live in the border areas.
In the past, Sino-Russian relation were fraught with suspicion. The two countries fought a border war in 1969. However, the benefits of trade and investment are eroding old enmities as Chinese investors rush in in and invest in various industrial developments in the Russian Far East.
Thanks to special economic zones in the Amur Region, Jewish Autonomous Region, and the Primorye and Khabarovsk territories, Chinese investment reached US$ 3 billion in various new projects in 2013, the China Daily reported.
Overall, Sino-Russian trade reached US$ 95.3 billion last year. "China is our 'number one' trade partner,” said Putin. “I think that in the next few years we will be able to reach the $200-billion turnover."
For Boris Krasnojenov, metals and mining analyst at Renaissance Capital, “Russia needs to cooperate with another country to open up the Far East and the natural partner is China, which has far more financial resources than either Japan or South Korea”.
However, the major problem is infrastructure, and China’s funds are the answer to that problem.
“China has never been interested in acquiring controlling stakes in Russian companies. What they want is to secure a steady supply of the raw materials they need and build the infrastructure to get it back to the home market. That is their development model everywhere,” Krasnojenov said.
If China gets its supply of raw materials, and Russian companies are given their much-needed foreign investments, “It’s a win-win for everybody,” said Svetlana Kostromitinova, a mining analyst.
For many, however, the renewed Sino-Russian alliance and Chinese investments are not the end of it. The Russian Far East is slowly becoming China’s safety valve, since China has more than 1.34 billion people, around eight times Russia’s population.
Increasingly, Chinese expats are crossing the border to work in more labour intensive activities like agriculture, which is often a steadier employment compared to street kiosk trading, logging and construction, which are typically transient jobs. This could lead to more Chinese migrants to consider permanent settlement in the Russian Far East.
China is prepared to invest in the railway infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route and the railway line Solikamsk-Arkhangelsk, TASS news agency reported Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin as saying on Monday.
"One of the issues on the agenda was encouraging investment in a very interesting project of a transport route from Solikamsk to Arkhangelsk, that is investment in the development of railway infrastructure supporting the Northern Sea Route," Rogozin said after a meeting of a Russia-China commission.
He added that China is also interested in reconstructing airports, including 'open sky' airports, such as in Sochi and Vladivostok, and modernizing deep-water ports along the Northern Sea Route.
Issues of cross-border cooperation were also discussed during a meeting with China's Vice Premier Wang Yang.
"In the near future, we will be ready to sign documents concerning border crossing points equipped to provide for the development of regions close to the border where there is cooperation, but no direct transport link," Rogozin said.
Return to Geopolitics & Global Economics
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests