ROCKMAN wrote:Putin isn’t going to put his armor against the Turks: he doesn’t have any in theater as far as I know.
Cog wrote:Still having those Walter Mitty moments are we?
How many tanks, of any kind, do the Russians have in Syria?
The Russian's grasp, of how tenuous their hold is in Syria, is matched only by your grasp of military matters. Putin has recklessly pursued a path which is going to bite him.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Cog wrote:The Russian's grasp, of how tenuous their hold is in Syria, is matched only by your grasp of military matters. Putin has recklessly pursued a path which is going to bite him.
Where are you getting that the Russians have air superiority?
...Losing control of the northern countryside of Aleppo would be a setback for the opposition. Turkey, too, would lose influence.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be eyeing an even bigger victory. He called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. This has still not happened - at least not officially.
But Syrian Kurdish officials have said they are ready to work with anyone fighting ISIL, and anyone who works for a united, secular and democratic Syria.
Such an alliance would change the battlefield and the balance of power on the ground.
Cog wrote:Where are you getting that the Russians have air superiority? Maybe when you look at the entire country of Russia but not when you look at what Turkey has versus what Russia has that air base in Syria. A few squadrons at most? Hard numbers are hard to come by.
Turkey also has attack helicopters and knows how to attack tanks with aircraft. The illusion exists that Russia is some sort of military monster. The truth is far different.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Cog wrote:Where are you getting that the Russians have air superiority? Maybe when you look at the entire country of Russia but not when you look at what Turkey has versus what Russia has that air base in Syria. A few squadrons at most? Hard numbers are hard to come by.
Turkey also has attack helicopters and knows how to attack tanks with aircraft. The illusion exists that Russia is some sort of military monster. The truth is far different.
Cog wrote:If the Syrians are running T-72's, and I suspect they are, they are no match for a Leopard 2. In both Gulf Wars, the M-1 Abrams achieved very good success at long range against the T-72's that Saddam was using. In fact, if I am not mistaken Iraqi armor only got a few mobility kills against us. That was with their Republican Guard units when Schwarzkopf did his big end run around Kuwait. We did destroy most of their's from the air but there were some huge tank battles between the two forces.
Even the early gen Leopard 2's have very good armor, stabilized turrets, and a 120mm gun. More than enough to take on Syrian armor.
Russia has deployed a mix of upgraded Soviet aircraft and the latest and greatest in Russian aviation, totaling 12 Su-24M2s, 12 Su-25SMs and Su-25 UBMs, four Su-30SMs, and six Su-34s. The bulk of this force is made up of tactical bombers and ground attack aircraft, with Su-30SM multirole fighters providing air cover, presumably against any other air force in the region. The operational tempo has been moderate, starting at 20 sorties per day and increasing to over 60 per day now that ground operations are under way. Indeed, there was a spike of Russian airstrikes last week, with perhaps as many as 400 sorties carried out, but the rate appears to be slowing down again. The airstrikes were focused on known fixed targets at the outset and sought to destroy weapons caches and command and control points. In the first week, Russia targeted equipment the rebels captured from Assad’s forces to soften up the opposition ahead of the Syrian offensive. Since then, the effort has transitioned to direct air support for a ground offensive launched by Syrian forces in Latakia and Hama. Russia’s wing of Mi-24P helicopters is also engaged, strafing enemy positions at low altitude while firing off flares to avoid being hit by man portable surface-to-air missiles.
This bombing campaign has employed an array of guided and unguided weaponry. While Russia has deployed some precision-guided munitions, such as the KAB-500S GPS/GLONASS-guided bomb or the Kh-25ML laser-guided missile, the bulk of the munitions are unguided gravity bombs and high-fragmentation bombs of the OFAB 250-270 variety. These unguided munitions are supplemented by BETAB-M bunker busting munitions against buildings and RBK-500-SPBE-D cluster munitions against enemy vehicles and tanks. While such bombing from medium altitude is fraught with inaccuracies, Russia’s air force is largely going after rural targets and fixed structures with a targeting approach that can be summarized as “close enough.”
The Russian Air Force appears to be conducting a relatively economical bombing campaign by using modernized targeting equipment with older munitions while selectively combat testing its latest aircraft and precision-guided munitions.
In addition to its aerial assets in Syria, Russia deployed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system, around a dozen tanks (allegedly the T-90A), and naval infantry. Supposedly as many as 1700 military personnel are now in Tartus to expand the base and rebuild its pier, which remains more a floating dock than a real port. Such expansions were being discussed as far back as 2010, but never implemented. In time, Russia may be able to dock ships from its surface fleet there. While the tanks and infantry appear detailed to base defense, Russian artillery and helicopters are engaged in supporting the ground offensive. Meanwhile, there is supposed work to further expand Russia’s military presence at military complexes in Al-Sansobar and Istamo, although these expansions seem intended to service displaced Syrian units instead. There is no significant Russian activity at either base.
Led by the Black Sea Fleet, Russia’s Mediterranean squadron is providing extended air defense off the Syrian coast. This squadron consists of roughly ten ships on rotation, most of which are landing, support, or intelligence vessels, along with four surface combatants. Though antiquated, the lone Slava-class missile cruiser Moskva provides the bulk of the firepower and capability of this fleet, including a naval variant of the S-300 air defense system.
Uralvagonzavod chief Oleg Sienko told Rossiyskaya Gazeta government newspaper on Friday that Russia recently tested the modernised T-90SM model in “an Arab country” and plans to export it to the region.
Satellite photos taken in mid-September and obtained by IHS Jane's show Russian forces developing two additional military facilities near Syria's Mediterranean coast, Rob Munks, editor of IHS Jane's Intelligence Review, said on Tuesday.
Munks said the previously undisclosed work was taking place at a weapons storage facility and a military base north of Latakia, suggesting Russia is preparing to place troops at both locations.
Munks told Reuters one of the sites was located about 4 miles (7 km) north of Latakia and the second was 2 miles (3 km) west of that. The images showed construction of new buildings and grading of terrain, as well as the presence of new tents typically used by Russian military units.
One of the facilities is adjacent to a surface-to-air missile site, Munks added.
Turkey suspended its flights over Syria as part of its partnership with the US for air strikes against the Islamic State. Ankara decided to avoid the risk of being shot down by the highly advanced Russian S-300 and S-400 anti-air missile systems newly deployed to Syria.
Since Wednesday night, Nov. 25, Russian heavy bombers and warplanes have been hitting every Turkish vehicle moving or stationary inside Syria.
They bombed the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, located on the Turkey-Syria frontier, as well trailers and tractors parked in an area belonging to the Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation, on the Syrian side of the border.
It was this group (a terrorist association in disguise) that five years ago organized a flotilla to break Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. The lead-ship the Marmora was boarded by Israeli troops and 12 “aid workers” were killed in a clash, an incident that sparked a major clash between Ankara and Jerusalem. Erdogan then insisted he had never heard of the organization although their strong links were uncovered.
Putin has made no allegations. He simply sent his bombers to destroy the organization's vehicles and plough up their parking area on the Syrian side of the border. He also refuses to take calls from Erdogan.
All these circumstances are features of a very active war waged between the two countries - albeit on Syrian soil - since Turkish warplanes downed the Russian Su-24.
In addition to punishing the Turkish leader, Russia’s massive military operations in Syria aim to degrade the rebel groups fighting the Assad regime. Heavy bombing sorties this week on the Syrian-Turkish border are cutting off tens of thousands of rebels from their only source of fresh supplies of weapons, ammo, food and fighters, leaving them without a line of retreat and nowhere to send their wounded.
After a week or two of intensive Russian air strikes against Turkish supply convoys crossing into Syria, intelligence and military experts expect the Syrian army, Iranian and Hizballah forces to use the rebels’ plight for an all-out offensive to destroy them.
After several incidents, in which 130mm shells fired by Syrian rebel groups, particularly the Al-Nusra Front, reached the center of the Russian Khmeimin military enclave outside Latakia, the general staff in Moscow decided to rush heavy artillery reinforcements to Syria.
Russia has transferred two types of heavy weapons systems by sea and by air to the front near Latakia during the past few days.
First, a body of three battalions of 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers was deployed at Khmeimin and has already started pounding rebel lines and command centers in the area. This heavy artillery system, capable of firing 152mm bombs at a rapid pace.
The 2S19 Msta-S has a modified chassis of a T-80 tank and a diesel motor of a T-72. It is effective against fortifications as well as military and terrorist targets in wooded mountain areas, exactly the kind of geographical environment in which the rebels around Latakia area are operating.
This self-propelled howitzer is also expected to be effective in battles being fought in the Qalamoun mountains, in order to break the stalemate in which the combined Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi and Hizballah forces have been bogged down for months in their efforts to knock over rebel strongholds.
Another heavy weapons system that Russia brought to Syria in recent days is the TOS-1 220mm multiple rocket launcher. This system, which is mounted on the chassis of a T-72 tank, has been deployed near the embattled Syrian cities of Hama and Homs.
The deployment of the highly advanced Russian S-400 anti-air missiles at the Khmeimin base, Russia’s military enclave in Syria near Latakia, combined with Russia electronic jamming and other electronic warfare equipment, has effectively transformed most of Syria into a no-fly zone under Russian control.
Moscow deployed the missiles last Wednesday, Nov. 25, the day after Turkish warplanes downed a Russian Su-24. Since then, the US and Turkey have suspended their air strikes over Syria, including bombardments of Islamic State targets. Both the US and Turkey are obviously wary of risking their planes being shot down by the S-400, so long as Russian-Turkish tensions run high over the Su-24 incident.
Friday, a US-led coalition spokesperson denied that the absence of anti-IS coalition air strikes had anything to do with the S-400 deployment in Syria. He said “The fluctuation or absence of strikes in Syria reflects the ebb and flow of battle.”
However, debkafile’s military sources confirm that neither the US, Turkey or Israel have any real experience in contending with the Russian S-400, which uses multiple missile variants to shoot down stealth aircraft, UAVs, cruise missiles and sub-strategic ballistic missiles. Its operational range for aerodynamic targets is about 250 km and for ballistic targets 60 km. The S-400 can engage up to 36 targets simultaneously.
Thei range covers at least three-quarters of Syrian territory, a huge part of Turkey, all of Lebanon, Cyprus and half of Israel.
Since the downing of their warplane, the Russians have put in place additionally new electronic warfare multifunctional systems both airborne and on the ground to disrupt Turkish flights and forces, Lt. Gen. Evgeny Buzhinksy revealed Friday.
Thursday, Nov. 26, a senior Israeli Air Force officer remarked that Israel is being careful to avoid friction with Russia, despite that country’s expanding military presence in Syria. “Russia is now a central player and can’t be ignored. But we each go our own way, according to our own interests,” the officer noted.
“Our policy is not to attack or down any Russian plane. Russia is not our enemy.” But what if Russian warplanes come over the Golan as part of a blitz to destroy Syrian rebels in southern Syria, some of which are backed by Israel?
AgentR11 wrote:Just a note of how effective Turkey downing that little bomber was...
Russian jets flew 431 sorties and hit 1,458 terrorist targets in Syria in the week of Nov 26 - Dec 4 - Russian MoD
This is what happens when you do something really really stupid, just because its legal. You can be assured that many of those targets that were destroyed were pro-Turkish groups and activities. Poroshenko a while back, promised to kill a hundred Donbas folks for every one of his that dies. He of course failed, and likely took the majority of all casualties in the conflict. Putin said nothing so overtly malicious as that. He just did it, with a smile.
Almost three months after Russia started its bombing campaign in Syria at the request of President Bashar al-Assad there seemed little sign of it letting up at Moscow's sprawling facility deep in the strongman's heartland.
Russia's military said Wednesday its jets had carried out 59 sorties and destroyed some 212 targets in the past 24 hours, adding to the roughly 9,000 training camps, munition depots, command posts and oil refineries they claim to have taken out overall.
In a sign that it remains in an unrelenting mood, Moscow has also bolstered its firepower at the base to protect its aircraft over Syria after a Turkish F-16 shot down one of its fighter jets along the Syrian border on November 24.
- New defences -
At one end of the runway the radars of the most modern air defence system Russia's army possesses -- the S-400 -- rotated next to some half-dozen vast missile firing tubes.
President Vladimir Putin ordered the system to Syria in the days after the incident, and the defence ministry claims they rushed them over in hours.
"After they shot down our SU-24 plane the command was given and they were set up as quickly as possible," the commander of the air defence system told AFP, without giving his name.
The system can track some 300 targets and shoot down around three dozen simultaneously over a range of hundreds of kilometres, the military said.
"They are now permanently working on alert to provide full cover to our aviation flying over the whole of Syria and some of the Mediterranean," the commander told AFP.
Russia says its air campaign in Syria is aimed at destroying Islamic State jihadists and other terrorist groups in the war-torn country.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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