[Cid_Yama]

Effete types in their Ivory Towers? Is that some kind of working class delusion? I guess they WOULD feel better if they believed those who are educated and more knowledgeable than themselves are wooses, but that is nonsense, probably a Hollywood creation.

Think about it. Most of the best educated come from moneyed backgrounds, where fitness is easily affordable, and encouraged. Engaging in sports is the pastime of the leisured class. Including martial arts.

The working class sure have some strange ideas about those who aren't.

[AgentR11]

I like to think I'll be "effete" after all the cartilage is gone. Though, I think the use of "effete" here is targeted more towards academicians; than the investment / rentier classes. [haha, I first wrote infestment, instead of investment, so tacky.]

[careinke]

There's a reason I'm a doomer, my brain is really, really good at envisioning really, REALLY horrible things. I asked for an exchange at the counter, and they said, one per customer, as-is, good with the bad. I'd trade for a 100-115 brain with no auto-horror button in a heartbeat.

No way in hell would I make that trade.

[vtsnowedin]

Lets see now. A Ohio class submarine carries 24 SLBMs that can carry up to 12 MIRVs each so each sub could target 144 cities or military bases. We have 14 such subs and the UK has 4. So if the Russians launch a preemptive strike and miss just one or two of those 18 subs they are toast. Are there even 288 things in Russia worth blowing up?
I think those numbers will keep both the US and Russia from ever engaging in a nuclear exchange so the problem that remains is a single strike from a North Korea or ISIS or Iran in a couple of years.

[AgentR11]

A Russian pre-emptive launch is an acceptance that "we all die together" as opposed to "Russia dies alone while the West continues unharmed". There is no victory involved. Also, don't trust what they say, their preemptive launch would almost certainly focus on killing cities and civilian infrastructure. Without those, NATO forces wither on the vine; no oil, no gas, no maintenance, no shipyards, no electricity, no prepackaged rations. NATO ceases to be a force capable of power projection, not to mention there being no decent places left to project power too. Execute a population and infrastructure destroying attack, and all of NATO's forces will be required just to scrape back together something resembling a nation within the previous borders of the US/EU...

The underlying problem that we have, is that the purpose of a NATO ballistic missile defense system is to enable a US first strike on Russia while preventing Russia from replying similarly. That's the only way Russia can read the situation. Once you make that conclusion, then you logically proceed to the point where a Russian national interest is challenged, and the US either overwhelms them conventionally, or just flat out demands that Russia surrender and disarm. My read of Russia is that they would rather all of us die, than submit to slavery to the West. Which is how they would perceive the result. We all die before Russia obeys Germany. Plain and simple.

So.... If you read things that way, and NATO starts pushing, and continuing to make headway on a missile defense system that could kill all Russian missiles at some point in the future; we can get into a position that the only rational thing for Russia to do is first strike before missile defense deployment. They'll be miserable either way, but at least we'll all be miserable together... classic Russian thought pattern.

Now if NATO had a way to communicate to Russia convincingly that it was defensive only and would never be used to invade or coerce economic submission of Russia, then maybe this wouldn't be so dangerous. As it is though, we've got a good batch of overthrown governments, civil wars, and proxy fights with a "Made in NATO" tag all over them; gonna be a hard sell.

[Pops]

The thing that saved us from total war is that Russia and China joined us capitalist pigs at the trough. You are much less likely to kill your grocer or your customer than some stranger.

I know, way to boring and kumbia for some but that's how it worked out.

Are there even 288 things in Russia worth blowing up?

That was pretty funny tho, lol

[KaiserJeep]

R11, without disagreeing with anything you said, I must point out that you have the timeframe wrong. A nuclear first strike will be answered within minutes to hours by a counterstrike. On the second day, final reprisals by both sides, who will likely each hoard a few warheads - probably tactical cruise missiles, aircraft-delivered gravity bombs, and backpack nukes - against invading ground forces. Then civil unrest ensues, and the cities that survive the nukes burn from within with food riots.

The satellites in orbit remain untouched, at least 50% of the submarines on both sides survive, and the NATO forces and individual country militaries all have at least 3 months real food and rations for another 9 months - the military forces with their professional Logistics will be better off than any civilians save those that are the most extreme preppers. Without a doubt, the military will eventually be "taxing" those preppers of food and all manner of survival supplies. They will be well-equipped and highly trained Infantry with air support - the preppers will have small arms and no body armor.

This Brave New World has been seen many times in human history. The scale is greater after WW3 is all.

[AgentR11]

The thing that saved us from total war is that Russia and China joined us capitalist pigs at the trough. You are much less likely to kill your grocer or your customer than some stranger.
I know, way to boring and kumbia for some but that's how it worked out.

I really hope it continues, but some seem determined to break that link, or use the linkage as a weapon. Which is really sad, world grain production is honestly pretty reliable when you net all of Russia, China, US, Canada, and Australia together into a big happy, commercial family; one has a bad harvest year, no big deal for anyone. Cut the links though... and you can get in hazardous territory pretty quick.

[KaiserJeep]

For what it's worth, I really do not anticipate that what ends grain production will be WW3. I think what ends grain production will be the end of cheap gasoline, diesel fuel, and LPG to run the grain harvesters. Conventional PO.com doom, in other words.

[AgentR11]

R11, without disagreeing with anything you said, I must point out that you have the timeframe wrong. A nuclear first strike will be answered within minutes to hours by a counterstrike. On the second day, final reprisals by both sides, who will likely each hoard a few warheads - probably tactical cruise missiles, aircraft-delivered gravity bombs, and backpack nukes - against invading ground forces. Then civil unrest ensues, and the cities that survive the nukes burn from within with food riots.

I didn't give a time frame, so I'm not sure how I could get it wrong. Your sequence doesn't seem contrary to anything I wrote.

The satellites in orbit remain untouched

I think this is a grave error. I suspect they'll all be destroyed, or at best left with a very short remaining lifespan and no possibility of replacement in the first instance of hostilities. Its trivial to make LEO and geosync completely unusable.

The military will eventually be "taxing" those preppers of food and all manner of survival supplies. They will be well-equipped and highly trained Infantry with air support - the preppers will have small arms and no body armor.

They tax us now, and its about the only portion of my taxes that I approve of. I could probably chip in some 9mm, but my 223s are handloads that won't feed well, and are too light for the twist in an AR if I recall right. I might contribute to a bbq & beer tailgate for the infantry guys; and if they hang around a while, I betcha we could put together a little parade with the marching band or something. This weird idea some of yall have of everyone opposing the actions of the military is pure Hollywood. To a great many of us, our military is just about the only visible instrument of government that we support. Heck, our high school has enough kids in the JROTC to form a decent sized company to march in the last town parade we had. Everyone cheered for them as they marched (really badly) along. If we're in post WW3, and I'm alive and around, and have some stuff to help an infantry company, they need but ask, and Ill bust my butt to make it so. (I always make a mess when I volunteer, so I just wait for people to tell me what they want....)

If you need a selfish reason, I'll give you this.
A military garrison makes for low freedom, but also, high stability.
High stability causes successful harvests.
Food causes NOT HUNGRY.

Now, if you're a pest, and can't keep your mouth shut, or can't help yourself but break important and unreplaceable things; then yeah, a military garrison nearby is really gonna suck. And you know what, I'll be glad you think it sucks.

[AgentR11]

Are there even 288 things in Russia worth blowing up?

That was pretty funny tho, lol

There are 55 decent ocean port facilities that would need at least one each to kill. And Russia is mostly NOT ocean. Yeah, there's plenty more than 288 things in Russia that would need blowing up in the event of a nuclear exchange. Refinery groupings, shipyards, forges, heavy manufacturing areas strung out along the Volga and other rivers; large hydroelectric dams, nuclear and coal power plants...

Yeah, its a funny joke, but its gotten old, and I think it causes people here to treat Russia trivially, in the same league with Iraq.

Killing Russia won't be anything like killing Iraq.

[KaiserJeep]

[-snip-
They tax us now, and its about the only portion of my taxes that I approve of. I could probably chip in some 9mm, but my 223s are handloads that won't feed well, and are too light for the twist in an AR if I recall right. I might contribute to a bbq & beer tailgate for the infantry guys; and if they hang around a while, I betcha we could put together a little parade with the marching band or something. This weird idea some of yall have of everyone opposing the actions of the military is pure Hollywood. To a great many of us, our military is just about the only visible instrument of government that we support. Heck, our high school has enough kids in the JROTC to form a decent sized company to march in the last town parade we had. Everyone cheered for them as they marched (really badly) along. If we're in post WW3, and I'm alive and around, and have some stuff to help an infantry company, they need but ask, and Ill bust my butt to make it so. (I always make a mess when I volunteer, so I just wait for people to tell me what they want....)

If you need a selfish reason, I'll give you this.
A military garrison makes for low freedom, but also, high stability.
High stability causes successful harvests.
Food causes NOT HUNGRY.

Now, if you're a pest, and can't keep your mouth shut, or can't help yourself but break important and unreplaceable things; then yeah, a military garrison nearby is really gonna suck. And you know what, I'll be glad you think it sucks.

No argument from me. A confession: with all the unjustified concern over the Y2K date, I decided to take the family camping for that New Year, and rented a cabin in a campground that was actually within the borders of Fort Ord Army Base a bit South of here. We toasted marshmallows in the fireplace and the next day I caught an 11-pound steelhead trout in a nearby stream.

I can honestly say it was an enjoyable holiday, marred only by an intense paintball war that was fought near the cabin the next day - those Army "light fighter" types are pretty intense.

[vtsnowedin]

Are there even 288 things in Russia worth blowing up?

That was pretty funny tho, lol

There are 55 decent ocean port facilities that would need at least one each to kill. And Russia is mostly NOT ocean. Yeah, there's plenty more than 288 things in Russia that would need blowing up in the event of a nuclear exchange. Refinery groupings, shipyards, forges, heavy manufacturing areas strung out along the Volga and other rivers; large hydroelectric dams, nuclear and coal power plants...

Yeah, its a funny joke, but its gotten old, and I think it causes people here to treat Russia trivially, in the same league with Iraq.

Killing Russia won't be anything like killing Iraq.

If you look at the list of Russian cities by population by the time you get down to number 288 the city of Vyazma with a population of just 57,101 you pretty much have it all. Of course you would target the closest military target instead of the population center but at 500 kilotons per warhead there would be few who escaped.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... population

[AgentR11]

There are a ton of targets you need to hit that don't even have significant populations. Its not as simple as counting cities. Same math applies here in the US; once you get down to #50 or whatever, its all chump change as far as population.

[Pops]

Pretty sure a little gallows humor in this backwater has little to do with the end of the world.

[Synapsid]

What is the purpose of this conversation?

[Cog]

What is the purpose of this conversation?

What is the purpose of any conversation on the internet? To show off our intelligence, to reveal the derpitude of others, and to plan WW 3. That pretty much sums it up.

[Pops]

What is the purpose of this conversation?

What conversation?
I'm pontificating.
Listen up!

[AgentR11]

I like to pretend I can write something that will make people less eager to pursue WW 3.

[vtsnowedin]

There are a ton of targets you need to hit that don't even have significant populations. Its not as simple as counting cities. Same math applies here in the US; once you get down to #50 or whatever, its all chump change as far as population.

Just how many targets make up a ton? I'm, pretty sure the US military has studied the problem and know how to achieve the maximum effect with what ever missiles they choose to launch. But really if you have wiped out every city or town with a population above 57,000 would it matter if you missed some military base out in Siberia?