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Peak oil.com is dying

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby dbruning » Wed 27 May 2015, 14:11:00

Pops: Image

hehehe

I do think sometimes people outside of this site don't look at all of the indication factors of what has been discussed here...for example:

resource / food / water land grabs ....check
chasing expensive oil production methods because the easy stuff just isn't there anymore...check
distracting the voters with circuses and bread and fun fun wars in someone else's backyard....check

Now when you mix those with things that may not be directly (but still part of) the peak oil umbrella, such as pollution, climate change, animal extinction rates, ocean acidification, plummeting fish stocks, the colony collapse problems with bees, human population problems, etc....it does become overwhelming. Which may be why we see people closing their eyes, covering their ears and refusing to think about the future, or changing any of their behaviors.

Hell, I believe I know what is coming to this world eventually. We're starting to get a taste of what is to come. I apologized to my children when they were 12 for what was likely going to be left to them to deal with. And yet...I still drive to work. I eat well and often. I enjoy my electronic gizmos. I am JUST AS MUCH to blame as everyone else. How can I expect others to uncover their eyes and actually try to see? All I can do is try to answer questions when they come up...for that I want to be informed so I value this place. But for others, the topics discussed here are likely frightening.

Perhaps what we need to drive new traffic are friendly, enjoyable, amusing mascots to take the sting out of the topics....something perhaps like:

Image

See, the 4 horsemen can be downright cuddly!

Oh, and bring back the Nigerian Swag Bag of Awesomeness. That was a highlight to read :)
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby sparky » Wed 27 May 2015, 18:29:37

.
If the price of gas is OK people are not much interested in dancing around the bitter tree
When there is pain at the pump , ....WHY !! Ohhh WHY !!

That seems to me to be perfectly rational , no problem ..why bother !

There is nothing to destroy credibility faster than screaming "we are doomed" ..... and nothing much to happen :)
people just shrug their shoulders and put it in the crazy loonies basket
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 May 2015, 19:06:21

What this place really needs are tie in pages on Twitter and Facebook that direct people here for more in depth information. As much as I resisted I finally caved and joined the Facbook zillions simply to maintain social relationships with people who seem to live more there than in what I perceive as reality.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 May 2015, 00:40:17

Just like TOD, this board basically shot their load predicting impending doom. When you promise doom you damn well better deliver it.

We aren't running out of oil any time soon. Notwithstanding scary charts which were never based in reality.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 28 May 2015, 02:56:38

If promotion is wanted, I would agree with Subjectivist. A linked Peak Oil group would probably drive membership pretty effectively.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 28 May 2015, 04:54:53

Cog wrote:Just like TOD, this board basically shot their load predicting impending doom. When you promise doom you damn well better deliver it.

We aren't running out of oil any time soon. Notwithstanding scary charts which were never based in reality.

Far too many people make the mistake of concluding that "peak oil" which is in fact the point when extraction of oil based products (or crude only) reaches its maximum and never to be repeated point, is in fact the start of DOOM!!!

Which is daft if you think about it!

In reality it is about BAU being disrupted as supply is no longer able to keep up with demand and this causes instability in the economy, as we are seeing now. Up until about 1970 supply was never really an issue and the economy grew unhindered. Since the 1973 oil crisis that has changed.

In reality peak oil is about adapting to the fact that growth is limited by the supply of fuel and eventually the supply will go into decline.

When the decline happens, that is when things get interesting and I expect that this site and others will then become an essential vantage point to help people adapt to the changing economic climate.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 May 2015, 15:33:31

I know how peak oil works in theory. But the theory is flawed. We aren't at peak production and won't be for some time to come. Look at US production currently. I know facts are uncomfortable things but I was assured according to peak oil theory that US production could never go up again from 1970.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 28 May 2015, 15:43:09

Cog wrote:I know how peak oil works in theory. But the theory is flawed. We aren't at peak production and won't be for some time to come. Look at US production currently. I know facts are uncomfortable things but I was assured according to peak oil theory that US production could never go up again from 1970.

I don't think that the actual absolute amount produced at any point in time really matters, it's more to do with production per consumer and that appears to have been dropping for some time. Production rises by, say 10%, while the number of consumers rise by 30% or more. Many of the new consumers are using far less oil per capita than the existing consumers who are using far less than they did 40 years ago.

Just imagine the mess we would be in if 1970s oil consumption habits were in use today, cars doing less than 15mpg, uninsulated houses with picture single glazed windows and oil boilers with heat outputs five times the current systems to warm them, plus oil fired electricity stations and so on.

Oil production would need to be at least 300% of what they actually are.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 May 2015, 16:11:23

The counterintuitive thing about peak oil is the peak happens when the flow is highest, when things look rosiest and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if that happens during a glut stage like we are in.

Copious PR Finder will be the one to announce the real peak. One of his regular posts along the line of "Nanner-nanner! Lookie! extraction was at an all time high last month you doomers!" and that will be the announcement. You'll be able to do a search on Abundant PR and "Doomer" and pinpoint the very month of peak from that one search because he won't ever get to say that again.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 May 2015, 16:16:59

Come on Dolan, of course it matters. If extraction falls when demand is high, or fails to increase sufficiently, or even if spare capacity (or the illusion) falls below some magical number the price rises – heck, if the herd senses anything close, or even hears someone imagined a dream where that happens in a parallel world, the market jumps like the pool boy hearing "honey, I'm home!"
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 28 May 2015, 16:26:15

Pops wrote:Come on Dolan, of course it matters. If extraction falls when demand is high, or fails to increase sufficiently, or even if spare capacity (or the illusion) falls below some magical number the price rises – heck, if the herd senses anything close, or even hears someone imagined a dream where that happens in a parallel world, the market jumps like the pool boy hearing "honey, I'm home!"

I think you need to re-read my point, we're already past the point of peak per capita and the decline of available fuel to an individual is already happening, but most don't realize it because they've improved their efficiency by replacing thirsty equipment with less thirsty stuff and using it less.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Pops » Thu 28 May 2015, 16:59:37

I know what you mean D, but I'm pretty sure I've never seen that in a headline anywhere, the traders look at spare capacity, absolute volume, day/week/month changes, etc. Price is what matters to the economy and to consumers, traders, speculators, they couldn't care any less about energy per capita. Don't you think?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 28 May 2015, 18:19:57

admin wrote:If anyone would like to help build a PO mobile app, please email admin AT peakoil.com

:-D 8)

Image
Image



Do you run the Facebook Pek Oil group?

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2213264857/
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 May 2015, 07:18:04

Great thread started. I for one am quite content on this site. I have to thank the administrators-moderators for keeping this site well filtered and controlled. This in fact I think has allowed this site to continue up for as long as it has. Pops offers some great pointers. I for sure think original content is one of the keys. I will endeavor always to try and make posts which include my observations and which provoke replies. Really enjoy this site for its stimulating and interesting material. Thanks.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 00:40:55

After being gone for awhile I've had some time spent elsewhere, partially on youtube, and coming back to it now, I'm instantly seeing that the site needs a 'Thumbs up, Thumbs down' feature for each post like Youtube does, with a counter for reads as well.

The thumbs up, thumbs down feature lets the reader gauge how popular/ unpopular any particular video is instantly. Also, to gauge the reader reactions to the comments posted below each video. In my experience it leads to instant feedback for 'what works, or what doesn't work'. Consider that they used to film TV shows like All in the family to live studio audiences. The actors, masters in their craft, could judge from the audiences reactions, what was funny, what was not, what was politically correct to say, what was controversial, and they could learn from this process.

This is something that peakoil.com desperately needs, real-time feedback from the audience.

Consider- Can this be done?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 01:07:38

Cog wrote:I know how peak oil works in theory. But the theory is flawed. We aren't at peak production and won't be for some time to come. Look at US production currently. I know facts are uncomfortable things but I was assured according to peak oil theory that US production could never go up again from 1970.


In order to argue that peak oil is a theory, one has to show that oil is an infinite resource.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 10:09:36

I'd say a reddit-type system would be good except for the fact that those things tend to create echo chambers.

But I guess it would be fun. Like, have a "karma" rating for each poster and people can thumbs up or thumbs down.

It's just that it encourages groupthink, is all, as people start saying only things that would get more karma and likes and they stop saying things that get disliked.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 10:17:34

"...but I was assured according to peak oil theory that US production could never go up again from 1970." As we've learned only a fool would make such a statement. Likewise IMHO only a fool would fail to recognize that the increase in US production was a direct response to higher oil prices which are a direct response to declining global oil reserves. But it has always been difficult for some myopic types to not see the bigger Peak Oil Dynamic picture.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Pops » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 10:20:32

Personally I'd rather see more thoughtful responses than thumbs up counter.

It's a "message board" after all, not a venue for cat vids.

:)
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak oil.com is dying

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 09 Dec 2015, 10:26:10

True, but I think often times folks don't want to write a message for what ever reason. A thumbs or "like" button or such may be a "gateway" to ease some folks into more active participation.
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