[dolanbaker]

I suspect that with the decline in US production, the differential caused by "surplus" production will soon disappear.

[Cog]

Cog, I think we got rid of split price threads last year as the gap narrowed. We are talking WTI.

Ok that is what I was wanting to know. Early in the thread people who run this thread were talking about some sort of average between the two and wasn't sure if that was resolved or not.

So WTI price it is.

[PeakOiler]

So are we trying to guess the WTI or the Brent price?

Please read the posts more carefully Cog. Rule #2 specifically refers to WTI, not Brent. And we were discussing the average annual price for WTI, not the average of Brent and WTI. Good grief.

[PeakOiler]

Here's the updated spreadsheet:



Please make sure I've entered your guesses correctly. I've double checked too, but I still make mistakes.

And I just noticed that I hadn't updated the averages for the high, low, and close at the bottom of the spreadsheet as seen in the image. See? Another oops...

The current averages should read: high: 71.78 low:32.56 close: 59.11 at the bottom. I guess I need to also add another cell at the bottom that averages the average guesses. lol

[Subjectivist]

Here's the updated spreadsheet:



Please make sure I've entered your guesses correctly. I've double checked too, but I still make mistakes.

And I just noticed that I hadn't updated the averages for the high, low, and close at the bottom of the spreadsheet as seen in the image. See? Another oops...

The current averages should read: high: 71.78 low:32.56 close: 59.11 at the bottom. I guess I need to also add another cell at the bottom that averages the average guesses. lol

You forgot mine, I posted this set earlier today,

High 111
Low 39
Close 93
Average 63

[PeakOiler]

You forgot mine, I posted this set earlier today,

High 111
Low 39
Close 93
Average 63

Got you added. Thanks for catching my oversight.

[Pops]

Based on my infallible intuition, OPECs non-desciscion (and Iran's testing of a medium range missile the other day) I'm going to say the nuke deal falls through but the price rises later in the year rather than sooner... so

Average is 50

[PeakOiler]

Based on my infallible intuition, OPECs non-desciscion (and Iran's testing of a medium range missile the other day) I'm going to say the nuke deal falls through but the price rises later in the year rather than sooner... so

Average is 50

lol Pops. Interesting point. But how much weight will that ME event have on the WTI price? $5, $50? I suspect when ISIS loses control of it's oil revenue and Turkey, SA, et al. ,gets upset, those ME events could weigh more heavily on the price, imo. We'll see.

I added your 2016 average estimate to the spreadsheet.

Meanwhile, the Cushing, OK stock is in good shape at the moment. I do expect, however, to see a continuing decline at Cushing this next year.

[Tanada]

I posted this year over year comparison for last weeks EIA report over on the report 2015 thread if anyone cares,

I think it might be instructive to see how things have changed yoy; so first lets look at one year ago this week,

Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) -3.7 to 379.3
Total Motor Gasoline +2.2 to 208.6
Distillate Fuel Oil +3.1 to 116.2
Other Oils -2.8 to 417.2
Crude Oil in SPR no change 691.0
Total US Petroleum Inventory -1.1 1,812.2

Lets us compare last year to this years numbers,

Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) +1.2 to 489.4
Total Motor Gasoline +0.2 to 216.9
Distillate Fuel Oil +3.0 to 144.4
Other Oils -2.6 to 458.4
Crude Oil in SPR No Change at 695.1
Total US Petroleum Inventory +1.9 to 2,004.3

Crude oil ______________________489.4-379.3 = Increase of 110.1 in storage.
Total Motor Gasoline ____________216.9-208.6= increase of 8.3 in working storage.
Distillate Fuel Oil _______________144.4-116.2= increase of 28.2 in working storage.
Other oils _____________________458.4-417.2= increase of 41.2 in working storage.
Crude Oil in SPR ________________695.1-691.0= 4.1 Increase in long term storage.

The SPR increase was the government replacing the oil used in the 'test sale' program last year.
The increase in working storage of Distillate Fuel Oil and Other Oils is IMO reflective of the fact that Gasoline demand is up so to keep the system full of Gasoline that has created a surplus of the other refinery products. Right now as we start the heating season Fuel Oil #2 is the cheapest it has been since the winter of 08-09 when the economy was awful and oil was about this cheap. Distillate Fuel Oil includes Kerosene aka Diesel #1 aka Fuel Oil #1 aka Jet Fuel so if you need to stock up this should be a very good time to do so.

[careinke]

My guess;

High 157
Low 32
Close 155
Average 51

Clash of civilizations coming.

[Pops]

...OPECs non-desciscion...

lol Pops. Interesting point. But how much weight will that ME event have on the WTI price?

First you gotta figure out what " non-desciscion" means, LOL

[Revi]

I don't have an average price, so I am going to guess 40. And can you please change my maximum price up to 66? Please put that down on my stats. Thanks.

[PeakOiler]

I don't have an average price, so I am going to guess 40. And can you please change my maximum price up to 66? Please put that down on my stats. Thanks.

Spreadsheet updated.

[PeakOiler]

I noted this statement in this Reuters Article

Zombies appear in U.S. oilfields as crude plumbs new lows

Drained by a 17-month crude rout, some U.S. shale oil companies are merely hanging on for life as oil prices lurch further away from levels that allow them to profitably drill new wells and bring in enough cash to keep them in business.

The slump has created dozens of oil and gas "zombies," a term lawyers and restructuring advisers use to describe companies that have just enough money to pay interest on mountains of debt, but not enough to drill enough new wells to replace older ones that are drying out.

Though there is no single definition of a zombie, most investors and analysts consulted by Reuters say they tend to have exceptionally high debt loads and face the prospect of shrinking oil reserves.

About two dozen oil and gas companies whose debt Moody's rates toward the bottom of its junk bond scale broadly fit that description. Investors and analysts mentioned SandRidge Energy Inc., Comstock Resources, and Goodrich Petroleum Co as some of that group's more prominent members.

To stay alive, zombie companies have curbed costly drilling and are using revenue from existing production to pay interest and other expenses in a process some describe as "slow-motion liquidation."

Bankruptcies and defaults loom because the cutbacks in new drilling have been so deep that many companies risk getting caught in a vicious circle of shrinking oil reserves, falling revenue and declining access to credit, experts say.

As long as oil prices stay below the estimated break-even level of $50 a barrel, the zombie group is set to grow. In fact, so many oil companies are struggling that "zombies" are the topic of a keynote address at a big energy conference in Houston on Thursday./quote]

With oil prices near new seven year lows below $37 a barrel, crude futures now forecast prices will not return above $50 until early 2018...

Yikes! 2018???!!!

I think I'm going to change my estimates for 2016...

[PeakOiler]

Here's an updated scorecard. I left most of the 2015 players in the list and will edit the spreadsheet as needed before the deadline.

[PeakOiler]

Below is a chart of the WTI Futures price range over time for your consideration of the 2016 oil prices:



Will it be a "stable" year or will there be more volatility?

[Pops]

very good POer, corresponds to my scribble of the Wedge morphing into the Big Wobble

[careinke]

bad post

[Pops]

bad post

I'm hurt.

[dolanbaker]

Pops, I think that the "big wobble" will be quite slow as in it will be about three or four years between peaks.

Based on that guess I would like to add an average to my guess of $45 for the year, I think that the first 9 months will be quite low and around Autumn next year, there will be a reality check when supply fails to keep up with demand and prices start to rise rapidly.

That assumes that OPEC fails to crank up the pumps rapidly when "we" expect the extra supply to flow.