ennui2 wrote:We're getting close, but not quite there yet.
There was a 2014 update:
MonteQuest wrote:ennui2 wrote:But Monte, we've already seen domino effects sweep society.
Not overnight by decree we haven't. How would a self-imposed depression via serious conservation measures not sweep through society like wildfire?
MonteQuest wrote:These projections ignore the biological history of organisms and their environments.
Keith_McClary wrote:ennui2 wrote:We're getting close, but not quite there yet.
There was a 2014 update
ennui2 wrote:MonteQuest wrote:How would a self-imposed depression via serious conservation measures not sweep through society like wildfire?
It's going to be something that happens voluntarily through a combination of market pressure and people finally shitting themselves (in large enough numbers) over AGW or PO.
ennui2 wrote:Rationing is not the same as telling people to conserve proactively.
ennui2 wrote:I don't think LTG is incompatible with die-off. It will take a LOT of die-off to actually bend that population chart negative, Monte.
ennui2 wrote:It still shows population peaking out somewhere between 2030-2040.
MonteQuest wrote:That doesn't answer my question in any way.
MonteQuest wrote:Both are reduced economic activity that will cost jobs.
ennui2 wrote:Are you saying we are above the laws of Nature?
MonteQuest wrote:The current world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new UN DESA report
...
I see no way, whatsoever, given the energy and debt constraints we face, that that is going to happen, do you?
MonteQuest wrote:ennui2 wrote:It still shows population peaking out somewhere between 2030-2040.
The current world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new UN DESA report, “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility (TFR) will take, as relatively small changes in fertility behavior, when projected over decades, can generate large differences in total population. In recent years, fertility has declined in virtually all areas of the world, even in Africa where fertility levels remain the highest of any major area.
However, these "rosy" projections here are assuming that the TFR will continue to decline due to demographic transition. In other words, that the developing world will see the same urbanization and rise in the standard of living the developed world has seen over the last 40 to 50 years, resulting in better education, the emancipation of women, access to health care/birth control, etc.
I see no way, whatsoever, given the energy and debt constraints we face, that that is going to happen, do you?
jesus_of_suburbia wrote: Are we going to see a populations higher or lower than those projected?
You're saying they are underestimating, then saying we are going to hit limits. I'd think that if we are hitting limits we won't see even those lower end projections. The die off will see that we won't come close to those.
Unless you're saying that we are going to hit the higher projects mid to late century then have a harder population crash?
Revi wrote:Population has already peaked in some parts of the world. We may see some more population gains, but I think it will peak in the 2030's, and start going down.
Cog wrote:But according to you doomers we are all going to die within 10 years so population growth won't matter. Or are you doomers saying something different now?
Cog wrote:But according to you doomers we are all going to die within 10 years so population growth won't matter. Or are you doomers saying something different now?
jesus_of_suburbia wrote:Why argue that projections based on the current conditions are inaccurate when you pretty much know the low probability of those conditions continuing?
MonteQuest wrote:What will be the rough seas? A pandemic? Loss of the bees?
Apocalyptic environmentalism is not simply old Christian wine in new bottles, but rather a uniquely narcissistic variant of it. What makes us special, we Western greens tell ourselves, is not simply that we love and understand nature better, but that our generation has the power to save it.
The Greatest Generation got to defeat fascism and communism while in the post-Cold War era, Baby Boomers, Gen-Xers and Millennials get to defeat an "adversary that is dispersed to the four corners of the earth and that can have all sorts of faces."
There is thus, in the fanaticism of the apocalypse, equal parts misanthropy and narcissism, self-loathing and self-aggrandizement. "Behind their lamentations," Bruckner writes sardonically, "the catastrophists are bursting with self-importance."
Pops wrote: It is Apocalyptic Environmentalism, the means are less important than the belief that we are the peak.
MonteQuest wrote:Pops wrote: It is Apocalyptic Environmentalism, the means are less important than the belief that we are the peak.
It's basic biology.
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