Plantagenet wrote:Good post, Monte.
Interesting topic.
But don't forget that the flip side of the economic slowdown in the developed countries, is the very rapid GDP growth in countries like China and India
MonteQuest wrote:
No flip side. We are at 103% of GDP. China is at 313% debt to GDP, heading for 346%.
MonteQuest wrote:Plantagenet wrote:Good post, Monte.
Interesting topic.
But don't forget that the flip side of the economic slowdown in the developed countries, is the very rapid GDP growth in countries like China and India
No flip side. We are at 103% of GDP. China is at 313% debt to GDP, heading for 346%. They are just debt driven GDP on steroids.
MonteQuest wrote:Oil per barrel produces less wealth today than in the past.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:MonteQuest wrote:Oil per barrel produces less wealth today than in the past.
Where? Based on what assumptions?
Outcast_Searcher wrote:In first world countries, the economies are FAR less energy intensive than they used to be, and becoming less so is a solid trend.
MonteQuest wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:MonteQuest wrote:Oil per barrel produces less wealth today than in the past.
Where? Based on what assumptions?
EROEI drop from 100 to 1 to 10-20 to 1.Outcast_Searcher wrote:In first world countries, the economies are FAR less energy intensive than they used to be, and becoming less so is a solid trend.
The main driver is relying on debt to grow GDP, as the study shows. The whole point of this thread. There is also the outsourcing overseas of jobs and energy intensive industries, service industries, and financial speculation. 1/3 of China's production goes to Western countries that used to produce the same products in house.
Outcast_Searcher wrote: However, correlation doesn't imply causation. Just because advanced economies use debt doesn't mean that the only driver (or even that a primary driver) is the unaffordability of oil.
marmico wrote:There is no correlation between U.S. debt to GDP and energy expenditures to GDP.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_17.pdf
Energy spending peaked at 13.7% of GDP in 1981, declined to 5.8% in 1999, rose to 9.6 % in 2008 and will print about 6.2% in 2015. Meanwhile, debt continuously rose.
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Geez Monte. You post a lot of economic opinions, but how about credible links or using figures that make any sense, such as consistency? When you fail to do that, you don't make a credible argument.
Outcast_Searcher wrote: And Planty is right. In general, 3rd world growth rates are high compared to first world countries. And they tend to slow down over time as the countries (like China) make significant economic progress. That's not doom -- that's the established norm for the economic national growth rate pattern.
marmico wrote:EROI decline is much ado about nothing.
marmico wrote:U.S. household debt rose relative to GDP because the value of the stock of residential real estate and consumer durable goods rose faster than GDP. Remember stocks and flows.
U.S. federal government debt rose relative to GDP because transfers (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) to households rose faster than GDP.
Now you tell me why U.S. nonfinancial business debt rose.
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