pstarr wrote:dolanbaker wrote:I was responding to the cost reduction, rather than the volume drop.
Farmers are not going to produce more than they can sell, otherwise it goes to waste,
So in those last two years (2014--2105) that agriculture production dropped, the planet added 160 million people. Yet demand/supply is down because fuel is cheap? Folks, do we see a problem yet? No. oh well.
But when it's ALL bad all the time, you lose credibility. If prices were up, that would be a sign of doom (as was commonly discussed a couple of years-ish ago on this site). The talk would be of widespread starvation since food is unaffordable, etc.
The simple point is is the cost of transportation is down due to cheap energy, that's good for the global economy. But I know - that's way too optimistic and obvious a point to let stand, so you need to find a way to preach doom.
Have at it. Just don't expect objective folks to be impressed.
Now, if we have widespread and lasting stories about meaningful shortages of food, then you may have a point. OTOH, we'd see food futures prices sharply rising in reaction.
I just looked at futures charts for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hogs. What I see is a consistent pattern of relatively depressed futures prices -- apparently the investment world does NOT see any sort of food supply crisis, at least in the short term.
But let me guess. The MSM makes all the futures numbers up if they disagree with your intuition, right?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.