The thing is, because they are pumping just as hard as they can right now KSA is demonstrating that their claimed 'spare capacity' is just a claim, and not much more than a claim. In the past they have used that claim to calm the markets when oil supplies were tight at $100/bbl but I am not so sure they will be able to do so in the future now that they have maxed out production.
The red is oil, floating on a sea of water (the blue and green). The Saudis have been pumping these reservoirs for 60 years from the top and have skimmed off all but the last oil sheen on the surface. Now those brilliant engineers have taken up where we started tight-shale, running perforated horizontal well bores along the very top of the reservoir trying desperately to keep production
The 70 year old reservoir the Rockman is currently drilling hz wells in has produced 28 million bbls of oil and 100+ million bbls of water. It was producing 12 bopd from 5 wells when the Rockman's first hz well came in at 200 bopd. BTW that well is still making a lot of oil but has an 85% water cut.
americandream wrote:I beg to differ. No one is in a position to comment until they experience these daily events and I tend to counter these dismissals for being ignorant and akin to the flat earth mentality. That said and given their sheer magnitude, and the fact that I have yet to fully understand them, I talk very obliquely about them. I have been struggling with them for years in a bid to make them accessible without destroying their commercial value for me.
ralfy wrote:americandream wrote:I beg to differ. No one is in a position to comment until they experience these daily events and I tend to counter these dismissals for being ignorant and akin to the flat earth mentality. That said and given their sheer magnitude, and the fact that I have yet to fully understand them, I talk very obliquely about them. I have been struggling with them for years in a bid to make them accessible without destroying their commercial value for me.
Stock market transactions have nothing to do with natural selection, which is part of evolution.
Natural Selection
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_selection
Evolution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution
Stock Market
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market
rockdoc123 wrote:Tanada wrote:The thing is, because they are pumping just as hard as they can right now KSA is demonstrating that their claimed 'spare capacity' is just a claim, and not much more than a claim. In the past they have used that claim to calm the markets when oil supplies were tight at $100/bbl but I am not so sure they will be able to do so in the future now that they have maxed out production.
I don’t see what the evidence is that they have “maxed out production”. They have increased production to secure market share but that doesn’t necessarily require producing everything they can. I would expect that they are producing on a fine balance where they are trying to maintain a price they can work with while not ceding market share….it isn’t working out because the US shale companies have been producing as hard as they can for various reasons. Back years ago we talked about the Saudi mega-projects which had the goal of getting spare capacity to 12.5 MM bbls/d. All of the fields that were planned for improvements in terms of MRC wells, water and gas handling etc were completed with the exception of Manifa which was postponed due to perceived low demand for that type of crude. The fact the billions of dollars planned were spent on these projects (as verified by Western service companies) and SA were adamant back in 2010-11 that the results were better than anticipated suggests that spare capacity should still be somewhere close to 12 MMB/d. Remember that spare capacity refers not to something where the tap can just be turned on but a situation where production can be brought on with a minimal of expenditure and work (i.e. no new drilling or large construction costs).
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
ROCKMAN wrote:What ever % of recovery remains in Ghawar or any other Saudi field remember PO is about the rate of oil production. The last X% of recovery from such fields will be produced much slower over a much longer time periods the first X%. There is a max rate any well can be produced. One reason hz wells are drilled in high water cut fields like those produced by the KSA and the Rockman: a hz well with an 80% water cut that can produce 7X as much total FLUID as a vert well will produce 7X as much oil. But don't forget it will also deplete the produced area 7X as fast.
ROCKMAN wrote:What the Rockman learned long ago: Mother Earth doesn't give a sh*t as far as what Alla, Dog or geologists want. LOL.
pstarr wrote:Oh, and by the way, those who have a stomach for the truth visit the http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6248 lots of articles on this subject going back to 2005
pstarr wrote:What does your comment even mean?
pstarr wrote:Is the Ghawar field is refilling?
Sure, if you take them at their word. On the other hand as someone pointed out over in another of the oil supply threads they are currently losing market share by not increasing their output as world consumption has risen since last year. Perhaps it is just a technicality, but they had something like 10 percent of the share of the world oil market in 2014 when this all started and now they have something like 9.8 percent because consumption has grown more than their exports have grown in the last 18 months or about that long.
pstarr wrote:Share with us ennui, what is wrong with the analysis?
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