JohnDenver wrote:However, the fact remains that peak oil (which current figures suggest occurred 4 years ago) has not even come close to destroying the global auto industry. In fact, some parts of it are thriving, and the vast majority of it is hanging in there just fine. The only part that seems to have gotten really crushed, are two of the Detroit automakers: GM and Chrysler. How do you explain the differential impact?
Actually, I'm not convinced that the others aren't seriously wounded. Ford, GM and Chrysler all went into this with a product mix heavily tilted toward large truck-based SUVs and almost as big "cross-overs". GM and Chrysler lost sales and profits so fast they couldn't change their business fast enough to compensate.
Ford made a very wise move when Mulally came on board, and mortgaged themselves to the hilt. If their sales don't pick up soon, they may end up in the same boat as GM and Chrysler next year. Luckily for them, the UAW has seen the light, and granted them most of the concessions that they made for the other two. With this, and the extra time Ford borrowed, they may not end up in bankruptcy. It's too early to tell.
As for the rest of the world's automakers, Toyota took losses for the first time in its history, and except for Subaru and maybe Hyundai, everyone else took losses as well. The non-US automakers are more geographically diverse than the US companies (though GM is supposedly doing quite well in China), and less tied to the SUVs and full-sized trucks that the US makers earn their profits on. When the sales of pickups for the construction industry, and SUVs for the heavily endebted middle-class, tanked over the past few years, the foreign automakers did well for a few more years on sales of their smaller vehicles.
I think it's too early to tell what's going to happen to the industry. Oil prices are already headed back up strongly, on little more than rumors of economic growth.