global debt — including the debts of governments, households and non-financial businesses — reached a record $152 trillion in 2015, an amount much higher than before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
radon1 wrote:Collapse is already happening right in front of you. Look at Venezuela. This is what happens when a territory drops out from the international system of the division of labor. Expect more of that sort as time goes by.
4. The genesis of warband culture in failed states. While JOE-35 rightly identifies the collapse of weak states into failed-state conditions as a significant military threat, a lack of attention to the lessons of history leads its authors to neglect the most serious risk posed by the collapse of states in a time of general economic retrenchment and cultural crisis. That risk is the emergence of warband culture—a set of cultural norms that dominate the terminal periods of most recorded civilizations and the dark ages that follow them, and play a central role in the historical transformation to dark age conditions. .......
....The spread of failed states around the periphery of the industrial world is thus an existential threat not only to the United States but to the entire project of modern civilization. What makes this a critical issue is that US foreign policy and military actions have repeatedly created failed states in which warband culture can flourish: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Ukraine are only the most visible examples. Elements of US policy toward Mexico—for example, the “Fast and Furious” gunrunning scheme—show worrisome movement in the same direction. Unless these policies are reversed, the world of 2035 may face conditions like those that have ended civilization more than once in the past.
KaiserJeep wrote:All the evidence I see favors the "slow crash" scenario. IMHO, the End of Days, TEOTWAWKI, whatever you want to call it, began a couple of centuries ago, when the human race went into population overshoot. You have lived your entire lives within the slow death of planet Earth, as did your Grandfathers, and all your ancestors since about 1800 AD.
Now for the rest of your lives, and that of your children, for people all over the globe, life gets steadily more difficult forevermore.
GHung wrote:The costs of dealing with and protecting against failed states (many of our own creation) will be a growing drag on the ship of BAU. Greer touched on it this week in his discussion on Joint Operating Environment 2035:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... sight.html
radon1 wrote:GHung wrote:The costs of dealing with and protecting against failed states (many of our own creation) will be a growing drag on the ship of BAU. Greer touched on it this week in his discussion on Joint Operating Environment 2035:
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... sight.html
Greer describes it well but he puts a political (anti-US?) spin on it. There is no need for the US to intervene for a peripheral state to acquire "the failed" status, even though such interventions do play a role from time to time. Nobody intervened, say, in Venezuela.
Having said that, Greer has a very good grasp on the matter. He produced a number of essays couple years ago on the economic development in the US from the founding times, and these essays were really good. Maybe, even surprisingly so, given that this is not his area of specialisation (or is it?). He described the way the US system of the division of labor developed, and identified the true drivers for its development. Even the expressions that he used - like "wealth pump" - are right on the spot, as long as their emotional connotations are ignored.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
onlooker wrote:Okay is the weak point in our Economies the Electrical grid? As per the "olduvai cliff". The financial markets? International commerce and trade? What will be the initial straw that will break the Economies back? Perhaps something exogenous to the Economy ?
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
onlooker wrote:Is this a trick question? haha. Seriously, I am not sure. According to ETP modelers availing themselves of the ideas put forth in the The Korowicz paper a fast devastating economic collapse can and probably will happen. This is briefly based on the weak links of the financial sector in particular JIT shipping/trade and the funds to back up said trade given that nothing backs fiat currency anymore. Along of course with a serious disruption in the energy sector as either producers or consumers or both have a very difficult time accessing energy/oil. Answering directly your question Tanada, if the Economic collapse was truly worldwide and devastating, I expect that in five years time from now, we would be seeing a very different world in which whole industries have collapsed and a form of martial law has been put in place to service the needs of the populace and to enforce law and order. Kind of similar to the Great Depression with people on food lines and such. I am not dogmatic on this. Nor am I an expert on ETP modeling. I did read your rebuttal to it which was quite good So in light of your views I am sure you do not foresee such a dramatic unwinding and collapse in the Economies scenario. I am unsure. It is also possible we can see a Long Emergency as written by Kunstler and Greer. That long emergency would entail a steady deterioration and downturn in economic conditions for vast numbers of people.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Hawkcreek wrote:I agree, a huge die-off is coming. But will it take 10 years or 200 years? I'm betting on around 50-100 years, at least.
I think the catalyst will be a gradual reduction in living standards for the bottom 95%, resulting in near anarchy, and revolution (think Venezuela). I believe a sudden economic collapse will not happen because the necessary corporations will be kept afloat by transferring their debt to the peons.
I think TPTB will remain in control throughout this, but it will be hard to keep making diesel for the tractors and distribution networks when the refineries are blowing up. Thus the die-off.
Of course, all bets are off if they to speed things up with a nuclear war, or gene-engineered disease.
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