Revi wrote:I have been thinking about it for a long time.
I think the next few years are going to be a change.
Folks said the same thing about peak oil nearly a decade back now. The economy crashed, we call it the Great Recession of 2008. The recovery since that recession has been pretty long, by post WWII standards, so we are due for another recession or something any time now, just based on business cycle dynamics.
Change is what the world is about, so sure, the next few years will involve it.
Revi wrote:That change could happen in a lot of ways, but business as usual is now going to become impossible.
They said the same thing about peak oil a decade back, and it didn't even stop this website, so no, just the general business cycle going into a recession won't make BAU impossible.
Revi wrote:It costs the average person about $9000 a year to keep a car going nowadays. The average person can't afford to do that at minimum wage now. How's it going to work when things get really tough?
What do you think?
People need to buy cheaper cars. $9000 to keep ONE going? Not in my lifetime, and I've got 4 of the things out in the driveway. Go buy a Ferrari and sure, it might cost that much to keep running for a year, but my most recent wagon is about $1000/year full coverage insurance, $350/year gasoline (based on peak oil caused gasoline prices from yesterday, about $1.85/gal), $3300 depreciation allowance from the IRS (which is a crock, but lets include it), and maybe $50/year for oil changes, $100/year prorated tire use and general maintenance, and this doesn't come anywhere near $9000, and most of it is depreciation which certainly has nothing to do with cash expense.
And tough? Tough how? You live in a economically depressed area of Maine and let me guess, you don't ride your electric off to Swan Island I'll bet. Which means even in the provinces you can afford a gas powered car because A) even in economically depressed areas you can afford cars and B) peak oil didn't bother you in your car ownership capability any more than it did anyone else.
My daughter is currently living without a car, and using Uber when she needs a ride. Is working out great, her transport costs for 3 months have been $25, and I know this because I funded all the Uber rides. The modern generation is what is going to cause peak demand, just as energy experts like Amy Jaffe are claiming.
So this is all a good thing, not a bad thing. BRING ON MORE PEAK OIL AND CURE THE WORLD'S APPETITE FOR OIL!!!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"